Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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190
FXUS63 KSGF 212229
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
529 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Strong upper low was located across the upper Mississippi valley
region early this afternoon. At the surface, a front pushed
through the area yesterday and much drier air has pushed into the
region, bringing a clear sky and cooler temperatures. The surface
high pressure system was located just to the west of the area.

The main focus with this forecast package will be with
shower/thunderstorm chances from late Monday through Tuesday and
then again late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

For tonight, the surface high pressure will move across the area
with a clear sky and light wind, which should set up a good
radiational cooling night, especially over the eastern CWA. Have
lowered min temperatures tonight in the eastern CWA into the mid
to upper 40s. The high pressure should shift to the east of the
area on Monday. The upper level trough will deepen as jet energy
dives south on the back side of the low, with upper energy moving
into the area as early as Monday afternoon. This will bring about
some showers and thunderstorms starting late Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

The shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into Tuesday
evening with a surface cold front and upper level energy with the
main trough axis shifting east of the area by Wednesday. The cloud
cover and rain will keep temperatures in the 60s for Tuesday into
Wednesday, before temperatures rebound on Thursday in the wake of
the upper low.

Thursday looks dry with upper level ridging moving into the area,
but should see some moisture advection into the area Thursday
night into Friday with increasing instability. A warm front will
likely set up over the area with a sharp dryline setting up to our
southwest across central OK. GFS continues to hint at severe
weather potential from late Friday into Friday night. Additional
chances of convection and strong to severe weather will be
possible Saturday into Saturday night but will be dependent on how
the convection from Friday night evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Conditions should remain VFR for the next 24 hours. Light north to
northwest winds this evening will become southeasterly to
southerly overnight tonight, with southerly flow continuing during
the day on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell



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