000
FXUS63 KSGF 200517
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE
LINEAR WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT UP TO
70 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS DO FAVOR
MESOVORTEX POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINE SEGMENTS BOWING TOWARDS THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WE HAVE A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DRAPED OUT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. WE WILL BE
MONITORING LINE SEGMENT INTERACTIONS WITH THESE BOUNDARIES VERY
CLOSELY FOR SPIN-UP POTENTIAL.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THESE
LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. INGREDIENTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR UPWIND PROPAGATING CHARACTERISTICS TO THIS
OVERALL EXPANDING MCS. THUS...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT ARE A DEFINITE CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS

THE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...FOSTER