Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent of TSRA activity tonight will need to be addressed by aviation
operations. Best coverage and more intense convection to occur
closer with weather disturbance tracking down the Mississippi
Valley...while additional storms expected to form along weakening
cold front descending into the Ozarks. Lowest chances will be along
the Kansas and Arkansas border.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels







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