Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261954
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
254 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Upper pattern remains quite active and will continue this trend
through the 7 day period with another shortwave pushing into the
west coast every couple of days or so. The shortwave which brought
convection to the area the past couple of days has shifted to the
east into the OH valley, while the next shortwave was shifting
into southwest KS.

Surface low was located over the OK panhandle region as of 19z
with a dry line extending south out of the low. Dew point axis
extended from east TX where readings were in the mid 60s to south
central OK with readings in the low to mid 50s. Parameters are in
place for a decent severe weather event across the central into
the southern plains this afternoon and evening. Across our CWA,
the setup is not as good, but can`t rule out some hail potential
late this evening/overnight. This will be the main forecast
challenge for short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

For tonight, should see low level jet start to crank up between
00z and 03z across the southwest CWA and could see some elevated
convection develop by mid evening across the western CWA. Shear
profiles look pretty decent, but thermodynamics are not overly
impressive. The best severe chances will remain south and
southwest of the area through Monday. Upper level energy from the
open wave will begin to spread east into the area late this
evening and overnight and should see convection increase in
coverage over the area to the east overnight into Monday. Can`t
rule out some elevated hailers in the southwest part of the CWA
where there will eventually be some elevated instability.

The surface low will track east tonight and then northeast across
the CWA on Monday with the southeast 1/3 of the CWA getting the
best instability and surface dewpoint returns from mid morning
into the mid afternoon hours. Can`t rule out some strong to
possibly severe convection during this time frame across the
eastern Ozarks. The main shortwave should exit to the east during
the late afternoon with no remaining convection by the early
evening. Temperatures will range from the low 60s in the west to
around 70 in the southeast CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Monday night into Tuesday evening look to be mostly dry with the
next system showing more of a slower closed system starting to
develop precipitation late Tuesday night in an area of divergence
ahead of the closed low. Most of the instability Tuesday night
should remain south and southwest of the area so thunder chances
will be small at the onset. Wednesday into Thursday look to be wet
across the area with periods of showers and thunderstorms as the
upper low slowly track across the region. Some instability does
make it into southern MO, but most of the instability remains
across the southern plains and lower MS valley. Believe severe
chances at this point will be on the low side, but may extend into
far southern MO.

Most of the activity should end by Thursday night but another
upper wave will be digging into the western U.S. by that time.
This system is expected to close off over the southern Rockies
with showers/thunder expanding to the east ahead of the system
late Saturday night into Sunday. Models still have
timing/positioning differences with this system, so the forecast
will likely need to be refined as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will overspread the region
tonight as a low pressure system pushes into southwestern
Missouri. MVFR is likely with IFR becoming increasingly likely by
late tonight.

MVFR and patchy IFR are then expected for Monday morning with
ceilings beginning to improve later in the morning as rain ends.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann


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