Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 050731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
231 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

Impact of clouds on temperatures already under the control of low
level northeast flow around the SE US upper low to be the short
term forecast challenge today. Readings will be lowest out west as
this area will be slowest to break with the remainder of the
region warmer than yesterday.

As overnight lows tonight are forecast to drop below afternoon dew
points there will be some fog tonight from SGF eastward.
Visibilities will key in on the clearing of low clouds along with
amount and density of cirrus flowing off digging western system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0231 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

The arrival of the first rain in a month will be the forecast
highlight during this time period.

Blocking pattern to break down early in the period as persistent
upper low over the SE US fills and exits into the Atlantic while
SW US upper low slides southeastward into northern Mexico under
intensifying northern stream.

00z medium range models remain consistent in advecting a shortwave
across the northern US with an associated cold front to bring scattered
convection into the forecast area Thursday. ECMF a bit slower than
other models adding a bit of uncertainty on the speed of clearing
on Friday though most areas to be dry by the afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Confidence is high that IFR ceilings will impact portions of
southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will slowly build down
through sunrise which will result in Springfield and Branson
falling into the IFR category. Ceilings at Joplin will be slightly
higher, but still may approach IFR. We are also expecting some
light fog to develop late tonight.

Ceilings will then slowly improve throughout the day on Monday.
While most of the day should feature MVFR ceilings, late afternoon
breaks are expected with an eventual return to VFR possible by
sunset. If skies can remain partly cloudy into Monday evening,
that will likely set the stage for fog later Monday night.

Winds through Monday evening will remain light out of the north to


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.