Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250546

1246 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.



LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.