Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
215 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Showers and thunderstorms were currently ongoing across
northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri in proximity to the
cold front. This activity is expected to move south this evening
as the cold front makes its way to the southeast and into the
Ozark region late this afternoon into this evening.

Low level moisture, a strong low level jet, frontal lift and some
instability will work to bring the potential for strong to severe
storms, however the timing of the frontal passage for the region
during the overnight hours may act to limit the severe potential.
Still, there is a concern for damaging winds along the front and
associated with and down bursts that may occur. Some isolated hail
to the size of quarters may also be possible with the strongest
storms as the freezing level will be fairly low.

Cool fall high pressure will be filtering into the region behind
the cold front through the day Sunday. Despite mostly sunny skies
afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

With cold high pressure over the region, overnight temperatures
will fall into the lower 40s to upper 30s under clear skies.

Sprawling high pressure will then linger over the eastern half of
the country through the end of the week as upper level flow
remains northwesterly. With sunny skies expected through the week
a slow warming trend will occur with high by Friday in the middle
70s. The next chance of rain may come late next weekend or into
the following week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with gusty south to southwest winds at the surface this
afternoon and early evening.

By late this evening and through tonight, pilots will need to
monitor radar trends as showers and thunderstorms are expected to
become widespread across the Ozarks Region.

This activity tonight could bring flight conditions down into the
IFR or MVFR ranges if thunderstorms directly impact an airfield.

A cold front will swing through the region, shifting surface winds
to the northwest by early Sunday morning.

Safe Travels.




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