Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130548
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0247 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A cold front is currently moving through the area this afternoon
with a quick hitting cold snap for the weekend. Temperatures will
range from the middle single digits near Rolla to the middle teens
across portions of southwest Missouri. Wind chills by tomorrow
morning will be in the near -5 to 10 degrees and through out the
day on Saturday. Clouds will increase on Saturday and temperatures
will struggle to reach above freezing over southwestern Missouri
and will be in the middle 20s across central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0247 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level system will begin to move across the Upper Midwest
Saturday night into Sunday. Low level moisture will begin to
increase across the area. Forecast models are starting to develop
very light precip over the area starting after midnight to very
early Sunday morning. This will likely be in the form of patchy
light freezing drizzle due to the lack of cloud ice and a warm
nose in the mid levels. Most areas will be below freezing
Saturday night with a very slow warming trend with temperatures
late throughout the night from southwest to northeast. The airmass
will be colder and deeper over the northeastern half the area
where a very light wintry mix or light snow will be possible by
early Sunday morning.

The best time frame for a light wintry mix of light freezing
drizzle...maybe some light sleet and light snow will be between 6
am Sunday to noon on Sunday and highest potential is over the
eastern half of the Ozarks. As the cold air slowly erodes away
from west to east Sunday afternoon and the freezing line slowly
retreads eastwards...the light wintry mix or light freezing
drizzle will change to just plain rain or drizzle.

Overall amounts will be light but enough of a concern that we may
see some slick conditions especially over the eastern half of the
area. Trace to maybe a couple hundredths of an inch of ice may be
possible along with a dusting of light sleet or snow. The better
potential for around an inch of snowfall will be over the far
eastern Missouri Ozarks from the Rolla area down to the West
Plains area. The light wintry mix or light rain will end from west
to east late Sunday afternoon or evening.

Another quick moving upper level wave will move across the
Midwest Region early Tuesday. This feature will bring more clouds
and a slight chance of rain across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks. The weather pattern changes in a big way for the
middle and end of next week. Upper level ridging and southerly
flow will boost temperatures way above average with temperatures
likely in the 60s and maybe even 70s!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Sfc high pressure will pass north and
east of the area with winds gradually veering to the southeast.
Considerable mid and high level clouds (VFR ceilings) will affect
the area. Lower vfr ceilings are expected late in the taf period
as a disturbance approaches. Light precipitation is expected to
hold off until just after this taf period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA


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