Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260502
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper level low over southern California is expected to make its
way into southern Colorado by 00z Friday. The surface front is
situated from a low over northern South Dakota into a second low
over south central Kansas with a dryline extending into west
Texas.

The convection from earlier today has worked over the atmosphere
pretty well. As such...will keep PoPs low as not much around but
a few outflow boundaries to act as a trigger and convection would
be isolated to widely scattered at best.

The surface front on Thursday meanders on the northern end but
does not make much progress on the southern end. So...despite and
warm and unstable air mass across the region...the lack of a
triggering mechanism will limit both the intensity and coverage of
any convection

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

As we move into late week...the upper low out west will lift into
the northern plains. This combined with a low level jet forming
over Oklahoma overnight on Thursday...could allow storms over the
central plains to make it into our area. A few of these storms
have the potential to become severe with damaging winds and large
hail being the primary threat.

For the Memorial Day weekend...the upper low continues to lift
into southern Canada taking the surface front with it as well.
Without an actual frontal passage...the area remains within the
warm sector. With a series of impulses moving through the upper
level southwest flow pattern...scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain a possibility as well. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal normal.

By Monday evening into Tuesday...a new cutoff low forms over
southern California keeping the area within southwest flow under a
warm and humid air mass which will continue the current pattern
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Lowering ceilings with abundant
moisture in the low levels are occurring with mvfr and ifr
ceilings becoming more common over southern MO. We should continue
to see lowering ceiling over the next few hours before a gradual
improvement after 15z. Thunderstorm activity to the north will
need to be monitored with some guidance dropping it southeast into
parts of the during or just after the 12z-15z time frame.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...DSA


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