Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161713
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

A cold front has pushed south of the area early this morning, as
a shortwave trough pushes east across the region. Showers
developed along and behind the front yesterday evening and continue
to push south across the area early this morning. The showers are
ending from northwest to southeast and will push out of south
central Missouri by mid morning.

Gusty northerly winds will occur this morning gradually
decreasing this afternoon as an area of surface high pressure
spreads into the area. Highs this afternoon will be cooler as
they top out in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Another upper level shortwave trough will spread into the Plains
tonight. Preciptiation will develop ahead of the system and spread
into the area tonight into Saturday morning. The preciptiation
will start off as a snow/rain mix across the far southwestern part
of the forecast area, with all snow occurring farther north and
east where colder air will be in place. Warm air advection will
occur with this system with temperatures warming from southwest to
northeast Saturday morning. As warmer air advects in the snow
will mix with and change over to rain. Snow will occur longest
across the eastern Ozarks where temperatures will be cooler, and
as a result there could be minor snow accumulations, mainly on
grassy and elevated surfaces. Temperatures will warm into the 50s
Saturday afternoon. The rain will spread east of the area
Saturday afternoon.

Warmer conditions will continue to track into the area as highs
warm into the 60s on Sunday. Scattered rain showers are expected
to occur Sunday night into Monday as an upper level trough
approaches from the west. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible. Highs will warm to around 70 degrees Monday as warmer
air continues to track into the area.

A cold front will then sag south into the area Monday night into
Tuesday than stall across the area. Widespread showers will
develop along the front will it pushed into the area. Showers will
then occur long the front at times into Wednesday night before it
pushes out of the area. Will have to see exactly where the front
slows across the area to determine where the heaviest rain will
occur. Also, will have to watch how fast colder air can spread in
behind the front, as some wintry weather could occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1056 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions this afternoon will gradually become MVFR overnight
and then IFR by tomorrow morning. There is some potential for LIFR
for BBG and maybe SGF. Confidence is higher for very low ceilings
for the BBG area. The main aviation concern will be lowering
ceilings and visibilities late tonight into Saturday morning with
light snow changing to light rain Saturday morning. Winds will
start out northeasterly and shift to easterly and then eventually
southerly by Saturday morning. The greatest aviation impacts with
low ceilings and visibilities will be between 09z and 15z
Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Griffin



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