Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A very active weather pattern looks to continue for a few more days
across the region, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms through
Saturday.  Thankfully, confidence is increasing in a few dry days
late this weekend into early next workweek.

Starting out this morning, yet another area of elevated convection
is developing across northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, as a
relatively weak low level jet overspreads a 925-850 MB baroclinic
zone just southwest of the CWA.  Convection will continue to blossom
over this area through sunrise, lifting north and east with time. No
widespread severe weather is expected with this activity, though
periods of heavy rain and frequent lightning will be likely with any
thunderstorms.

Convection is then expected to expand in coverage through much of
the day today, with the approach of a few pieces of shortwave
energy currently to our west and southwest.  This increased upper
level support should result in fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms through the day today.  Convection is then expected to
continue tonight, with weak height falls continuing to overspread
the region, along with the approach of a frontal boundary from the
northwest.  While a few isolated severe thunderstorms aren`t
entirely out of the question today, the overall threat appears
rather low.  Of more concern will be multiple rounds of heavy rain
given relatively saturated soils.  Will continue to coordinate an
expansion of the Flash Flood Watch with surrounding offices; while
exact counties haven`t quite been worked out yet, some expansion to
the east should be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The aforementioned front looks to make slow progress into the
forecast area through the day Saturday, likely resulting in a slow
end to the rain from the northwest to the southeast during the
latter portion of the day.

That front should then be to our south by Sunday morning, resulting
in what is looking like a rather nice day, with cool temperatures
and lower dewpoints building into the area. Highs on Sunday may
struggle to reach 70 degrees in a few locations.

Warmer temperatures and more seasonable humidity will begin to
return the area during the middle of next week, but right now, it
appears that increasing heights aloft may keep widespread
precipitation chances at bay.  That will be a welcomed opportunity
to allow things to dry out a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Pilots can expect a continuation of unsettled weather conditions
to impact area terminals. There will be VFR conditions mixed with
intervals of MVFR conditions through the period. MVFR ceilings are
expected at times tonight into Friday with MVFR conditions
becoming more prevalent with time. After a bit of a break in the
coverage of showers tonight the showers and storms will increase
from the west toward daybreak and into the day Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ066-077-088-
     093-101.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster






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