000
FXUS63 KSGF 161158
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAINLY EAST OF A WARSAW TO CASSVILLE LINE. ALSO MONITORING
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH CONTINUES
TO TRACK EAST ACROSS KANSAS.

FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING ONE WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING OF THESE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO
OFFER A GOOD SOLUTION. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THIS MCS IN KANSAS
AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING AND THEN WITH
ANOTHER EXPECTED MCS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PUSHING INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CORFIDI VECTORS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN TO THE MCS IN
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
CAN ALREADY SEE FROM ICT RADAR THAT STRONGER CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION REMAINS IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND PUSH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE GRIDS SET UP FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND ANY
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL LIKELY SET OFF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL NOT REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY UNTIL THE
EARLY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER KANSAS TONIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA AND MAY SEE SOME FLOODING REDEVELOP.
UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND FOR THE HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM WAY BACK UP INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES...WENT GENERALLY VFR...BUT COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KJLN AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...DSA