Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201727
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

As of 3 AM, a warm front was analyzed in a north/south fashion
right along the U.S. 65 corridor. A rather impressive temperature
and dew point gradient exists with this front. Temperatures along
the I-49 corridor were around 70 degrees with areas of the eastern
Ozarks around 50 degrees. Dew points over western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas were in the upper 50s with dew points out east
in the upper 30s.

This front will lift to the northeast this morning as low pressure
slowly moves east across northern Missouri. This will set the
stage for a very warm day. Models continue to show 850 mb
temperatures warming into the upper teens to around twenty
Celsius. This will translate to high temperatures warming into the
middle to even upper 80s over much of the Missouri Ozarks. Areas
of the eastern Ozarks should see highs in the lower 80s.

By late this afternoon, a cold front will begin to make its way
towards central Missouri. At this time, it appears that
convergence along this front will not be enough to overcome what
should be a fairly stout capping inversion.

Prospects for convection may then increase tonight as that front
settles towards southern Missouri. Models are hinting that
isentropic upglide may initiate elevated convection along or north
of the U.S. 60 corridor. Many of the convection-allowing models
(CAMs) seem to be focusing more on a corridor from Truman Lake
towards Lebanon and Houston. This makes sense if parcels are
lifted more from the 850-800 mb layer later tonight.

However, a few models indicate slightly earlier initiation (this
evening). If this were to occur, this would be closer to the
surface front in the vicinity of the U.S. 60 corridor. With that
being said, we have placed a swath of 20-40% PoPs over most of the
area with the exception of far southwestern Missouri. The
"highest" PoPs are in the Warsaw to Ft. Leonard Wood to Salem line
as the slightly more elevated convective scenario is favored.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The forecast for Tuesday then has some bust potential as that
front continues to slowly move south across southern Missouri.
Temperatures south of that front may easily reach the middle to
upper 70s. In contrast, highs north of the front may not reach the
60 degree mark. Temperatures will likely fall in the afternoon
where the front has not already passed. There will also be plenty
of clouds around along with a continued threat for showers and
thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Tuesday night.

That front will then briefly stall south of the region on
Wednesday before beginning to return north again as a warm front
Wednesday night and Thursday. We could see another shot at a few
showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the
returning front. After a cool Wednesday, warmer temperatures will
return again for Thursday.

Medium range models then continue to depict a vigorous storm
system impacting the region from later Friday into Saturday. If
the general structure of this system (deep trough with closed low)
materializes, the prospects look very good for widespread rainfall
throughout the Ozarks. We will also maintain a limited risk for
strong to severe storms for Friday given the large scale setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions through the afternoon and most
of the evening.

However, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible tonight and into Tuesday morning as a frontal system
approaches from the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer



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