Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 142323
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...South to southeasterly winds
will occur this evening into the overnight hours. Mid and high
level clouds will start to spread into the area from the southwest
overnight into Monday morning ahead of a weak upper level
disturbance currently moving east across the southern plains. This
disturbance may bring some scattered showers to the area during
the morning hours Monday. If this activity can develop it will
spread east of the area by the afternoon hours.

Winds will then become more southwesterly Monday afternoon ahead
of a cold front that will be dropping south towards the area. The
front will start to push into the area late Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along this front late this TAF period or just beyond.
Wins will switch to the north to northwest behind the frontal
passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise






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