Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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438
FXUS63 KSGF 081106
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
506 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

After the first snowflakes of the season fell for many across the
Missouri Ozarks Wednesday afternoon/evening, a blustery and cold
Thursday is on tap for the region. While we may see a few early
morning high clouds across southern Missouri, mainly sunny skies
are expected today as strong Canadian high pressure builds
southeast towards the Ozarks. Most areas will not warm out of the
20s today with the exception of south-central Missouri where lower
30s are expected. Brisk northwest winds will keep wind chills in
the single digits this morning and teens this afternoon.

The bottom will fall out of temperatures tonight as that high
pressure settles into the I-49 corridor around sunrise. We have
continued to go on the low side of guidance for temperatures given
the positioning of that high. Lows will generally be in the 8-13
degree range. While winds will be light, wind chills will fall
well down into the single digits over most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

That high will shift off to our east from later Friday into
Saturday. Southerly winds will increase and become rather brisk by
Saturday. We will see a warming trend as we get into the weekend
with highs returning into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Models continue to indicate some potential for light precipitation
later this weekend as short wave energy quickly moves east across
the central Plains and Corn Belt regions. It is still too early to
hone in on temperatures profiles in the low/mid levels of the
atmosphere with this system, so we felt it was best to leave a
chance for rain or rain/snow mix in the forecast.

The operational GFS continues to then indicate another big cold
shot towards the middle of next week. However, there is a big
spread in ensemble members. Case in point, the MEX is showing a
low of 8 degrees for Springfield...which matches the lowest
MOS ensemble member. In contrast, the highest member shows a low
of 40 degrees. That sort of spread does not bode well for building
confidence in the operational GFS.

In contrast, the ECMWF is quite a bit warmer with less
amplification to the upper level pattern. This behavior/
inconsistency amongst global models is fairly common when the
hemispheric wave number is transitioning. The five wave charts do
indeed indicate this transition. Thus, we have gone with a blended
approach for temperatures towards midweek which is close to or
slightly above the GFS ensemble mean.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 505 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
be breezy from the northwest today, eventually becoming light
tonight as the sun sets.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell



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