Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 030514
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Inserted a mention of patchy fog over all but south-central
Missouri for the overnight period. Temperature/dew point
depressions are already below five degrees where skies have
cleared. With winds expected to be nearly calm, fog seems like a
good bet. Coverage and intensity may need to be adjusted depending
on sky trends across south-central Missouri. It`s not out of the
question that a Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed...
especially across western Missouri and extreme southeastern
Kansas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Lots of stratus/stratocu remain across the area with several
disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft across the
region. Measurable rainfall has pushed off to the southeast, more
in line with the surface frontal boundary. The cloud cover has
kept temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the area.

The main forecast focus for the work week will be with
temperatures and with the next chance of rain as we head into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Cyclonic flow aloft will continue both tonight and Tuesday with
several waves of upper level energy pushing through the area. This
will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover over the area through
the short term period. Temperatures will be on the cool side again
tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs should climb back
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday. Moisture will be limited, so
will keep precipitation chances below 15 percent at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

By Tuesday night, the main shortwave will have pushed through the
area and should start to see clearing. The main upper low will
then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. The SGF
CWA should remain in northerly flow aloft with surface high
pressure over the region, so will see some cool nights both
Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows in the 40s. Will start to
see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging
builds into the area. By Friday, the upper ridge will be overhead
with low level warm advection starting to develop. Temperatures
should start to climb back into the 70s on Thursday and well into
the 70s by Friday.

As we head into the weekend, energy from a large closed low in the
Rockies will start lifting into the area from the southwest and we
will start to see showers and thunderstorms developing over the
area. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be
late in the weekend into early next week as the main shortwave
will begin to push into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Confidence is increasing that fog will develop overnight due to
clearing skies and nearly calm winds. This includes increasing
potential for IFR and even LIFR fog...especially around Joplin and
Springfield. Confidence is slightly less around Branson.

Fog will then lift by mid-morning on Tuesday with VFR returning by
around midday (if not sooner). Winds will be light out of the
northwest on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



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