Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281731
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1231 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Lift associated with 100 knot 300mb jet and ill-defined shortwave
descending into the eastern US trough to depart resulting in
diminishing light rain/sleet over southeast counties. Remaining
echoes over south central Missouri expected to dissipate by 20z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Water vapor this morning showing a shortwave feature currently
over Iowa and moving southeastward. Regional radar have shown a
gradual increase in precip aloft but haven`t seen much in the way
of surface reports reflecting precip reaching the ground yet.

Short range high resolution models indicate that light precip in
the form of light rain or snow will affect the eastern Missouri
Ozarks through mid morning...mainly east of Highway 65. A minor
dusting to maybe up to half an inch of snow may be possible on
grassy areas and elevated objects over the eastern Ozarks. But
with a high sun angle this morning and it being late March...this
will be more of the exception than the rule. And road and ground
temperatures are too warm for any impacts or accumulations on
roadways.

The light precip will end by late morning across south central
Missouri. Partial clearing of the clouds expected across the
western and northern areas with the exception being south central
Missouri. This is where temperatures will remain the coolest today
with highs only in the lower 40s but where sunshine does make an
appears across southeast Kansas...temperatures may reach near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

The highly amplified pattern will begin to flatten somewhat
starting on Sunday. Another weak trough or wind shift will move
through late Sunday. Temperatures will be more seasonable Sunday
with highs in the lower to middle 60s. A few light spotty showers
will be possible late Sunday into Sunday evening with the passage
of this surface trough.

Milder weather returns for the early and middle of next week. The
overall pattern becomes more zonal. The medium range models still
indicate a weak disturbance moving through the flow late Tuesday
into Wednesday. With this feature there could be a slight chance
for a shower or isolated storm. The better chance for more
widespread showers and storms will arrive with a front Wednesday
night into Thursday. The models lose consistency and there is some
uncertainty toward the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Above noted jet and shortwave to exit into eastern US trough
ending precipitation. Associated mid deck has cleared northern and far
western MO though trajectories to keep mid level VFR ceilings into
the afternoon at KSGF and perhaps even the evening at KBBG. LLWS
will then develop tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Runnels





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