Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171141
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

A cold front over eastern Kansas early this morning will push
into the forecast area today. This front along with residual
outflow boundaries will continue the scattered showers/storms
across the area. Better chances look to be in areas along and
north of interstate 44 this morning. Given ample low level
moisture and presence of boundaries, cannot rule some marginally
severe storms over southeast Kansas and far western Missouri this
afternoon where slightly higher instabilities/shear are progged.
The widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will keep the
temperatures down today, with highs ranging from just the mid and
upper 70s across central Missouri to the mid 80s across south
central Missouri.

Diffuse boundary across the area tonight will continue the
shower/storm chances and once again scattered in nature. Lows will
likely drop into the middle to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The area remains in southwesterly flow aloft on Monday with models
depicting a weak shortwave to lift across the area. Depending upon
instability could see some stronger storms, especially across the
Osage Plains into central Missouri where GFS/NAM depicts best
shear/instability parameters would coincide.

Somewhat of a break in the convective activity expected Tuesday,
before next wave digs across the northern Rockies and into the
northern Plains. Attendant cold front will then push into Kansas
with good fetch of southerly winds ahead of it. Models showing
convective potential increasing late in the day and into Wednesday
night.

Beyond Wednesday pattern evolves to a deep trough across the western
conus with strong ridging east of the Mississippi River with the
forecast area under the influence of more ridging aloft. Although
cannot rule out some showers/storms, at this point Thursday through
Saturday looks mainly dry with only low end probabilities at best.

Overall, temperatures through the entire period look to continue
above normal, with daily highs in the low to middle 80s and lows in
the mid and upper 60s. The warmest days look to be Wednesday and
Thursday, where upper 80s to near 90 will be possible once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

An area of showers and storms was moving southeast towards the
area this morning. This may affect the terminals this morning,
primarily at JLN and SGF and have gone VCTS for now. Winds will
remain variable given multiple boundaries in the area. Outside of
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible by early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield



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