Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 222031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...More Moderate to Heavy Rainfall On The Way For The Missouri
Ozarks Region...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

The next mid level wave of energy and slug of moisture is
beginning to move into the area this afternoon through tonight.
Light to moderate showers are spreading in from southwest to
northeast. The good news is that the entire area is now above
freezing and we are done with the winter weather threat. The bad
news is that much of southern Missouri is close to saturation.

We have issued a new Flood Watch for portions of south central
Missouri where areas have already seen 3 to 5 inches of rainfall
already this week. This area could see another 2 to 3 inches of
rainfall over the next 2 days through Saturday evening and will
have the highest potential for additional minor flooding of
creeks, streams, and low water crossings. The entire area will see
off and on scattered showers with very little elevated
instability possible over south central Missouri for a couple
claps of thunder tonight. No severe weather is expected. The rain
chances decrease by early Friday morning with a break in the rain
chances before the next round develops and moves in by Friday

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

The weak frontal boundary that will waffle back and forth over the
region over the next couple of days will lift northward Friday
night across the Ozarks. Enhanced lift near 850 to 750 mb will be
the focus for another band of moderate to occasionally heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms across southern Missouri
lifting northward into central Missouri by Saturday morning.

A strong shortwave and slight negative tilted trough will develop
Saturday across the High Plains and lift into the Midwest. A
sharpening cold front/dry line will develop across the Central
Plains and surge eastward and a developing low pressure will lift
across eastern Kansas into Iowa. We will have monitor this storm
system develop and characteristics with warm moist air trying to
sneak up into southern Missouri ahead of the front Saturday
afternoon. Some guidance pushes our dewpoints into the upper 50s
and lower 60s. Wind shear will be plentiful and instability will
be the big question. Forecast MUCAPE values may approach 1000 J/KG
and even some low level CAPE trying to show up in the models.
Right now southern Missouri is in a Marginal Risk for a few strong
to severe storms but that could be adjusted upwards if trends
continue. The front and line of showers and storms will move
through Saturday afternoon and evening from west to east.

High pressure and quiet weather returns for a couple days on
Sunday and Monday before southerly winds and more southwest flow
aloft brings in more moisture and our next storm system. Another
sharp upper level trough will move out into the Central U.S. by
Wednesday into Thursday and bring the next round of rain and maybe
storms to the region. Temperatures will be seasonable to above
average over the next 7 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

IFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon through
Friday morning. Showers have developed across central Kansas into
central Oklahoma late this morning. These showers will continue to
spread from west to east across the area later this afternoon into
this evening. IFR ceilings and some light fog will occur through
the overnight hours.


MO...Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday evening
     for MOZ082-092-096>098-104>106.



SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.