Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 302031

331 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday night)

Another fabulous day was observed over the Ozarks as temperatures
warmed into the 80s. Sunny skies and southerly breezes helped
boost these temperatures into the above average category from a
seasonal standpoint.

For tonight, there is a possibility of some showers or storms over
eastern Kansas and far western Missouri. We think most locations
will remain dry, and severe weather is certainly not expected

As we advance into Wednesday, some of the hiRes models are
focusing convection north of Highway 54 through the day. The
global models signal precipitation further south into southern
Missouri. We have decided to lean our forecasts closer to the high
resolution models, thinking most of southern Missouri will remain
rain free heading into Thursday morning.

The reasoning for that regards the placement of the height falls
and front, being further to the north and west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

We have inserted the mention for tornadoes within our severe
weather outlook for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Deep moisture will continue to transport into the Ozarks,
underneath an approaching storm system from the west. This feature
will force a round of robust thunderstorms on Thursday.

Even with the uncertainty involved with potential warm sector
convection contaminating instability Thursday morning, we think
shear strength and structure appears favorable for well organized
storms. This shear combined with dew points in the upper 60s to
near 70, warrants a mention for tornadoes. Particularly with
expected low level CAPE with this type of airmass.

Models suggest all convection will move east of the Ozarks by
Friday morning, giving way to dry and mild weather through the
upcoming weekend.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday may not warm out of the 60s,
with overnight lows falling into the low 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected
at the TAF sites this afternoon through Wednesday morning.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will continue to develop this
afternoon and will dissipate around sun set this evening. Winds
will be out of the south this afternoon and will become more
southeasterly this evening and overnight. Winds will then pickup
and be gusty out of the south by mid morning Wednesday.

Storms will develop across Kansas into northern Missouri tonight
into Wednesday morning. This activity is expected to remain west
and north of the area through the TAF period.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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