Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Much Needed Rainfall for the Missouri Ozarks Today Through Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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