Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 141 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Scattered to broken cloud cover was moving across the region this
morning and will continue into this afternoon as an upper level
trough moves across the Ozarks today. This cloud cover along with
dry westerly winds will help to keep temperatures in the 40s
across the area.

Winds will begin to increase and shift out of the southwest this
evening and during the overnight hours. This will allow warm air
advection (WAA) to begin to bring warmer temperatures into the
area along with clearing skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The surface gradient will continue to tighten allowing winds to
increase during the day on Saturday with gust from 25-30 mph
expected generally along and north of I-44 and west of Highway 65
into Saturday evening. The combination of gusty winds and relative
humidity values from 25-30 percent will bring another day of
elevated fire concern for the region.

Initially, the WAA will just allow temperatures to climb into the
upper 50s to low 60s in the afternoon, but eventually moisture
advection will begin to bring Gulf moisture into the Ozarks. This
will bring the chance for rain to the region from very late
Saturday night through midday Sunday. While the chances for rain
look fairly high, the amounts will be limited with most areas
seeing only a third of an inch or less.

Temperatures heading into next will remain in the 50s during the
day with overnight temperatures in the 30s for the most part,
thanks to continuing southwesterly flow aloft across the region.

Towards the end of the week, a significant pattern change is in
store as models dig an upper level trough into Old Mexico allowing
cold Canadian air to begin spilling all the way through the
southern plains. This will bring a return of highs in the 30s to
the area as we head into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR flight conditions will prevail through today and into the
overnight hours. Cloud cover over the region will linger into the
evening with 6-8kft bases with clearing expected nearing 00Z. Low
level wind shear will impact the Springfield terminal just before




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