Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292329
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A warm and overall pleasant day is underway this afternoon across
the area. A frontal boundary that passed through most of the
forecast area last night has all but washed out across the region,
with light and variable winds across the area.

A few very isolated showers/thunderstorms have managed to develop
across the Stockton Lake area this afternoon, where instability
looks to be just high enough to generate a few small echoes. A few
more brief showers/thunderstorms will be possible over the area,
though fairly dry low levels and an overall lack of appreciable
forcing will limit coverage considerably. Anything that does
develop should dissipate quickly this evening as cooling sets in.

After midnight tonight, convection in Kansas and parts of north
central Oklahoma should begin to push east toward the area. A lot
of this activity may dissipate by the time it reaches the western
CWA, though will carry chance PoPs over the western and
southwestern portions of the area from late tonight through
sunrise Monday. Lows tonight look to drop into the low 60s once
again.

Thunderstorm chances will then increase through the day Monday, as
daytime heating allows for an increase in coverage/intensity (or
perhaps a regeneration) of the convection moving in from the west.
With some upper level support in form of what looks to be a MCV-
enhanced shortwave, shear will increase enough for at least some
organization. A few instances of large hail and/or gusty winds
will be possible as this wave and associated convection move
through the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then remain possible into
Monday night as that short wave trough/MCV slowly tracks
northeast across the area. We will have to watch for locally heavy
rainfall potential associated with this feature.

The upper level flow will then become increasingly southwesterly
on Tuesday as upper level energy digs and closes off across the
northern Plains. This will keep the chance for showers and
thunderstorms going. There will again be a limited risk for a few
strong to severe storms on Tuesday...mainly across western
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas.

A cold front will then slowly push southeast across the area from
late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. This may be our best
chance at more in the way of widespread showers and thunderstorms.
While lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across far south-central Missouri to end the work week, dry
weather is expected for at least a few days across the rest of the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures will also be slightly cooler with a
drier air mass filtering into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions will predominate through the forecast period.
Currently have a few towers and occasional convective pulse
showers to the north and east of the terminal sites. These are
expected to die down after sunset with the loss of heating.

Overnight...expect light winds and cirrus blow off from the
Oklahoma and Kansas convection. Could begin to see convection
developing late tonight over extreme southeast Kansas and far
southwest Missouri...which could produce MVFR visibilities with
the heavier storms. Models are showing an upper level impulse
transiting the area during the day on Monday which will increase
chances of convection with the daytime heating.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede


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