Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261124
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The area remains in a weak mid/upper level flow pattern with a
925mb front essentially along the Missouri-Arkansas border.
Expectation for Today is that with some morning heating there
will be scattered showers and storms that develop near this
frontal boundary. There may also be a weak impulse that approaches
from the northwest during the afternoon as well that triggers
scattered convection. Highest chances will be along and south of
Interstate 44 and rain chances will last into the evening hours.

Not expecting any severe weather with this activity due to weak
wind shear. Do think that there will be a limited flooding risk
for locations along and south of Interstate 44 for a couple
reasons: 1. A very moist airmass is present (PWs between
1.75-2.25in) and 2. weak mid level flow creating slow storm
motions. Much like we saw on Monday, localized flooding is
possible if storms remain over a particular location for any
extended period of time. High temperatures will be hampered by
clouds/precip with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A lingering frontal boundary and weak west/northwest flow will
lead to periodic shower and storm chances through much of the
extended period. There is a signal in model guidance that the flow
will become slightly more amplified and more northwesterly
beginning Thursday. This may lead to slightly stronger wind
fields and better storm organization for MCS`s. Will need to watch
the Thursday evening timeframe as models are showing decent wind
shear and moderate instability with an approaching shortwave from
the northwest. Moisture levels will remain high through the
period.

One other feature to watch is a sneaky upper level low moving
northwest into Louisiana. Models take this feature northwest into
Arkansas by Thursday and then into Tennessee. This feature will
be a focus for storms where it tracks and will have very rich
tropical moisture with it. Therefore there will likely be
mesoscale forecast challenges for the Wednesday- Saturday
timeframe and confidence in placement/coverage of storms is modest
at this point. High temperatures will be near average for the time
of year in the middle to upper 80s.

It does appear that the summertime high pressure cell will edge
back into the area early next week bringing warmer temperatures
and decreasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Scattered thunderstorms should develop later this morning through
the afternoon hours across the region. It appears at this time
that activity will be focused across southern and southwestern
Missouri...this will result in highest probabilities at the BBG
terminal, with SGF and JLN on the northern edge of the
thunderstorms.

Other than a bit of early morning fog at BBG this morning, VFR
will prevail outside of any thunderstorm activity. MVFR to IFR can
be expected in and around thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms should decrease in coverage this evening, though a
few storms may linger through the night across far southern
Missouri.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Boxell


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