Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1138 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms developed across much of the
region this morning and into the afternoon hours. A few elevated
storms were able to reach severe limits. Much of what`s left
early this afternoon is showers and storms within area of
strongest isentropic upglide and ascent within an upper level
impulse sliding southeastward.

Through the afternoon and into the evening, short term models are
hinting at some additional development. RAP shows around 500-1000
J/KG of instability across much of the region, although it should
be noted the RAP`s CAPE values have been under-performing (to say
the least). Elevated instability, a boundary (as seen on visible)
dropping southward, and subtle isentropic support will help kick
off additional activity along or just south of the HWY 54
corridor. This activity should begin to shift southward through
the late afternoon and evening.

Although no widespread severe weather is anticipated, a
few marginally severe hail reports can`t be ruled. The best shower
and storm potential will end up settling further south along the
MO/Ark border through the overnight and into Wednesday morning.

With the surface front remaining just to our south through
Wednesday, we will keep at least some mention of rainfall with
overrunning, but at the moment there is no signal for anything
more than scattered coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The front to our south, which should keep our region in the cool
sector through much of the short term should slowly move
northward as heights aloft begin to increase. Still, proximity of
the frontal boundary along with subtle H5 impulses should help
keep the rain chances nonzero through Thursday.

A potent upper level system will begin to slide eastward toward
the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas by Friday. A deep surface
low will develop in the high plains region and slide generally
along and slightly north of the I44 corridor through late

Showers and Thunderstorms will develop along or just ahead of the
cold front. Although instability looks very marginal at this
time, wind dynamics and bulk shear will be supportive of at least
an isolated wind threat late Friday. Post frontal showers/storms
are then expected as the upper level low slowly moves through the
region by early Sunday. Some of these storms may have a hail risk.

Just as the weekend storm moves out, another mid level wave will
begin to slide across the plains late Sunday and into Monday.
Being in the warm sector, we`ll need to keep our eyes open for
more strong storms during this time. Similar to the earlier
system, instability looks marginal with slightly limited moisture.

The end of the period, we`ll finally get a small break as upper
level ridging takes place on Tuesday/Wednesday before our next
potent mid-level trough takes shape across the Rockies.

The good news is our current pattern will bring several
opportunities for much needed rainfall across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Little change anticipated in the forecast through tonight and
Wednesday. Showers and Isolated storms will move across the
region tonight tapering off be morning. Ceilings will remain VFR
with mid level broken and overcast. Visibilities will be limited
where rainfall occurs but will be brief. Mostly cloudy VFR
ceilings will then persists through the day Wednesday.




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