Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 291725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacted portions of
extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks overnight. This
activity was ongoing early this morning in response to an upper
level weakness slowly moving over the region.

It appears as though this activity will persist into today`s
period, particularly along and east of Highway 65, as the upper
wave translates to the east.

By late this afternoon and early evening, there are some signals
within the potential temperature surfaces that would suggest an
uptick in deep convection across southwest Missouri.

Models indicate an airmass that becomes increasingly unstable.
Most unstable cape by the GFS-20 shows amounts along and slightly
west of Highway 65 reaching 3,000 j/kg. With modest deep layer
shear present, we think a few robust updrafts are not out of the
question. Will advertise this within today`s Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

An unusual low level pattern unfolds tonight through Sunday. A
slow moving 925mb low develops over southeast Kansas creating low
level baroclinicity across the area. As a low level jet
intensifies tonight, convection will also increase in coverage.

Will need to watch any clusters or cells that struggle to move
much, which could become conducive to localized heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

It appears as though we remain somewhat unsettled heading into the
upcoming work week. The main belt of westerlies shifts well into
Canada. Meanwhile an upper level weakness remains cut off within
the mean ridge. This feature will have a the potential to trigger
convection through Wednesday or Thursday. We`re not suggesting a
high coverage of rainfall, however, spotty rainfall through the
week is likely across southern Missouri on a daily basis.

Afternoon temperatures in the mid and upper 80s are expected
through the week, as increased humidity takes hold.

There are some indications tropical moisture from the Atlantic
retrogrades into the Ozarks toward next weekend. We`ll have to see
more of a consistent model signal before we get too serious about
it.

In summary, warm, humid, and unsettled weather could continue
for several days across the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail for TAF sites this afternoon
and tonight with the exception of JLN for the next couple of
hours. JLN may hold on to some MVFR ceilings around 3k feet
through mid afternoon. Have mentioned VCTS between 21z to 03z with
scattered convection around followed by VCSH late this evening.
Confidence and coverage is not high enough to have much if any
impact at the individual TAF sites. Will monitor trends and update
as need be late this afternoon if coverage looks to impact sites.
Winds will be light south-southeasterly possibly becoming
somewhat variable tongiht.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin



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