Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 081157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
657 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today-Tonight-Friday)
Issued at 0330 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2015

Clouds and some fog are occurring again early this morning. The
fog seems to be more confined to the eastern cwfa where lighter or
calm sfc winds are more common. A se sfc wind over the western
cwfa seems to be producing enough mixing to keep fog limited or

A cold front that extends from the eastern Dakotas into western
NEB will move through the region tonight. Mild/warm weather will
occur today with temperatures similar to or slightly warmer than

Guidance moves the front into the far nw cwfa by 03z/10 pm.
Scant moisture ahead of the front limits rain chances with the
actual frontal passage, although high res models indicate a narrow
band of precip is expected to briefly develop while some limited
mlcape/instability exists this evening. Better chances for precip
will likely occur behind the front late tonight and Friday morning
with the upper level shortwave/disturbance. A few rumbles of
thunder will be possible with some elevated instability.

Showers should exit the eastern cwfa early in the afternoon
Friday. In general, measurable rain chances are a blend of
guidance, in the 40-70% range with the highest/best chances over
the western cwfa.

Friday will be much cooler with clouds hanging on for part of the
day. Some clearing is expected from nw-se in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0330 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2015

Dry weather is expected for this period. Cooler/chilly weather is
expected Friday night early Saturday morning. A progressive upper
level pattern will keep things moving quickly. High pressure will
quickly move off to the east as an upper level shortwave ridge
moves in. A quick warming trend will occur over the weekend with
many areas seeing highs near 80 deg F Sunday.

Another shortwave and associated sfc front will move through early
Monday but no rain is expected. Some gusty nw winds will occur
Monday. Mild and very dry weather is expected through midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0652 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2015

Patchy areas of ground fog was again impacting portions of the
region similar to yesterday morning. The fog is transient with
visibilities bouncing from MVFR to VFR hour to hour. Will see fog
burn off quickly after sunrise. A cold front will move through theOzarks
tonight and bring the potential for showers to area terminals.
There is a limited chance for isolated convection but coverage
will be limited. Otherwise fight conditions after sunrise this
morning will see VFR ceilings and unlimited visibilities.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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