Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230307

907 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.