Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231153
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The Ozarks was positioned between the residual circulation of
Tropical Storm Cindy and an approaching frontal boundary to the
northwest. Other than a couple of sprinkles in Oregon County, most
of the Ozarks Region remained dry overnight. Temperatures were
generally in the 70s within high humidity.

For today, the cold front will surge across the region bringing
showers and thunderstorms. There is an instability - shear
combination in southwest Missouri for a marginal risk for
organized thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
risk with the strongest storms. The window for severe storms will
occur between noon and 3pm. Otherwise the severe threat will shift
into Arkansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Beyond this evening, the forecast appears to be quiet for the next
several days. Northwest flow will set up across the nations
midsection, bringing a dry continental airmass to the Ozarks. This
will keep Gulf moisture at bay, as temperatures stay cooler than
normal for late June.

The next signal for rain chances occurs Monday morning as a weak
baroclinic zone sets up across southwest Missouri. We could see
some weak convection along this feature through Monday.

We finally get into some zonal flow Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Weak shortwave troughs pass through the area, possibly sparking
off a few showers.

There are no indications of a summertime high pressure system
to build over the Ozarks anytime soon. Therefore temperatures in
the 80s and lower 90s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog/low stratus (IFR) early,
particularly at Branson, will burn off fairly quickly. A sfc front
will move through with some scattered shower/tstms near and just
behind the front with some mvfr ceilings possible. The latter half
of the taf cycle is expected to be vfr with drier air behind the
front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



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