Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

A cool air mass and cloudy skies have kept temperatures in the
middle 30s to the lower 40s across the area this afternoon. Winds
will become light this evening and night as skies gradually clear.
Lows will drop into the 20s tonight.

More sunshine will occur on Friday, as highs warm into the middle
40s. Winds will become more west to southwesterly around 10 mph
Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Surface low pressure will spread into the Plains on Saturday,
resulting in the pressure gradient tightening across the region.
Southwest winds will increase and become gusty on saturday. The
strongest winds will occur across southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri where gust around 30 mph will occur at times Saturday. A
dry air mass will be in place across the area and result in an
elevated fire weather risk developing as the dry conditions and
gusty winds combine. The southwesterly winds will help usher a
warmer air mass into the area, as highs top out in the upper 50s
to around the 60 degree mark Saturday.

An upper level shortwave trough will spread into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. An area of rain will develop to the southwest
and spread to the northeast across the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning. This system will generally bring a tenth to four
tenths of an inch of rain to the area. Cloudy skies and drizzle
may occur at times on Sunday as the system tracks through the
area. Highs will generally warm into the 50s each afternoon next
week. No additional rainfall after Saturday Night/Sundays system
for the rest of the long term portion of the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Mainly VFR conditions will occur at the TAF sites this afternoon
through Friday morning. A brief period of MVFR ceilings may occur
early in the TAF period at KBBG but over all ceilings will be
around 4 to 5kft this afternoon with more mid level clouds this
evening. Winds will be come light and variable this evening and


Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

A warm and dry air mass will once again combine with gusty
southwesterly winds on Saturday. Winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph will develop, the strongest winds will generally be
across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Humidity values
will drop into the 25 to 35 percent range Saturday afternoon.
These weather conditions combined with dry ground fuels, both
grassland/brush and woodland, will lead to an elevated fire risk
developing on Saturday.

Rainfall is expected to develop and spread across the area
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts of one to
four tenths of an inch are expected with this system.




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