Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Upper level shortwave ridging is spreading east across the region
this afternoon. As a result warmer conditions have occurred this
afternoon as highs have warmed into the lower to middle 70s. Lows
tonight will drop into the 50s.

Surface low pressure is currently located across the Plains this
afternoon. As a result a slightly tighter pressure gradient and
gusty winds have developed across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri this afternoon.

The surface low will deepen tonight and will start to spread east
tonight into Tuesday. This will allow the stronger winds to
develop as gusty winds of 30 to 40mph will be possible across
much of the area Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions will occur
through Tuesday afternoon.

Highs Tuesday will top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The
gusty southerly winds will also help to increase low level
moisture ahead of the approaching system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

An upper level trough will swing to the east into the southern
Plains Tuesday evening then on to the north east across the
area Wednesday evening and night.

A cold front will push east into eastern Kansas by early Tuesday
evening. Instability will increase, as low level moisture
increases from the south and warm conditions occur. Storms should
be able to develop along the front near the I35 corridor and
spread east towards the region Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Initially discrete storms will be possible but a line or line
segments should develop as they spread east into the area. Strong
to severe storms will be possible with this activity across far
western Missouri to the west across southeastern Kansas. Damaging
straight line winds will be the main risk, but hail up to the size
of half dollars will also be possible with a few storms. The main
strong/severe risk Tuesday evening/night will be west of Highway
65 with the best potential west of I-49.

The upper level support with this system will lag to the west and
the storms should weaken as they push east Tuesday night and may
dissipate altogether east of Highway 65.

Now that the system is slowing some, the front will then spread
east across the area Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Showers and storms will develop Wednesday
morning, but should intensify east of Highway 65 as instability
increases, generating a strong to severe risk with large hail and
damaging winds the main risk.

Widespread rainfall amounts of one half to one and one half
inches are expected across the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday
evening. While wide spread flooding is not expected, localized
minor flooding will be possible due to saturated grounds from the
rains over the weekend.

Cooler and dry weather is expected Thursday through much of the
day Friday.

Friday night into the weekend an upper level low will track east
as a front moves north and stalls or slowly moves north across
northern Arkansas/southern Missouri. An increase in low level
moisture will allow rounds of rain to occur. Confidence continues
to increase that heavy rainfall will occur somewhere across the
region. There is still some wiggle north and south as to where that
axis of heavy rain will occur. There will be the potential for
additional flooding under where the axis of heavy rain setups .


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR flight conditions are expected throughout
the TAF period, with an increase in mid to high level clouds. The
pressure gradient ahead of the next storm system will produce
southerly winds of 15 to 25 knots at the TAF sites, mainly between
14Z Tuesday and 00Z Wednesday. There could be some gusts as high as
30 knots at KJLN.

Convection will begin to form late Tuesday afternoon and evening
across Kansas and Oklahoma. These storms will them track eastward
and may affect the KJLN terminal between 04Z-06Z, but should
remain west of KSGF and KBBG. Will include a VCTS at KJLN for this
time frame.




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