Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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437
FXUS63 KSGF 191739
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Sfc high pressure nosing southward into the area from the Midwest
will keep initially dry air in place today. An approaching
shortwave/upper level disturbance will increase high clouds later
in the day.

For tonight, rain/rain showers will spread west to east into the
area but the eastern edge of the rain will fight the low level dry
air and the eastward extent of the precip may not make it all the
way through the cwfa by daybreak Wednesday. The air mass will be
fairly stable given evaporational cooling and believe overall
modest thunder chances will be limited to the western cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Rain chances/elevated convection will continue into Wednesday,
tapering off from west to east late in the day i.e.
afternoon/early evening. Better, but limited instability will be
confined to the southern cwfa closer to the sfc wave of low
pressure and the associated w-e oriented sfc front. The ECMWF is
farther north with the front versus other guidance.

Rainfall amount/qpf guidance varies with the GFS possibly
suffering from a bit of convective feedback to our south. Went
with WPC`s 00z guidance for the most part which puts around an
inch of rain in our western cwfa for the late Tuesday-Wednesday
time frame. This may be enough to put a few low water areas/low
water crossings in a limited slow rise flood and will have to
watch guidance trends. Rain/qpf as it stands now doesn`t justify a
headline/flood watch but the next shift will still have time to
look at this based on newer guidance.

Sfc high pressure will briefly keep the weather dry/quiet Thursday
as a shortwave ridge moves into the central Plains and yet another
shortwave digs into CA/Baja CA. Rain chances will again begin to
increase Fri and Fri night as the upper system/low moves into the
Four Corners region and lead impulses and increased moisture move into
Plains. Again, the eastward progress of the rain will fight dry
air Friday and Saturday with much more limited rain chances over
the eastern cwfa versus the west.

Overall rain chances will continue Sunday and Memorial Day as the
western trough opens up and begins lift northeast and better low
level moisture moves north into the region. Concerns by this time
will be potential mounting rainfall amounts, particularly over
the western cwfa. Will continue to mention some flooding potential
in outlook products for late in the holiday weekend. Mid level
winds increase Sunday with the approaching shortwave, but
thermodynamic profiles are in question given already existing
clouds/rainfall and their affect on diurnal heating. With pockets
of stronger instability, a conditional severe storm risk could
develop, but there is a lack of sfc (front stays way off to the
west) and stronger shortwave triggers to hang your hat on right
now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today to give way to
deteriorating flight conditions tonight and Wednesday at area
terminals.

An approaching storm system and associated warm front lifting
north will bring lowering cloud decks and widespread rainfall
tonight into Wednesday. Rain will spread from west to east later
this evening into the overnight hours and persist through
Wednesday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible.

Ceilings will lower into the MVFR category late tonight with areas
of IFR ceilings expected Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster






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