Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230828

228 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

Issued at 227 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

Upper level jet was diving south into west Texax on the back side
of an upper level low centered over southeast Nebraska early this
morning. This was helping to develop surface low pressure over
southwest Texas and along with shortwave energy cycling along the
base of the trough, was causing precipitation to expand across
western into north central Texas this morning.

The sky cleared early in the evening across the area for the first
time in what seems like forever. High level clouds were beginning
to push back into the western CWA in advance of this next system.
Temperatures under the cloud free Ozarks region had dipped into
the mid 30s to low 40s so far this morning.

The main forecast focus will be with this system to our west and
southwest as it pushes east today and eventually lifts northeast
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions tonight into Wednesday.
Colder air aloft will move in behind the low with mainly a
rain/snow mix initially until surface temperatures can cool enough
to remain all snow.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

Clouds are expected to increase during the day today in advance of
the next system. Temepratures should reach the mid to upper 40s
for highs. Surface low is expected to track along the Texas Gulf
coast before begining to lift northeast this evening into the
Tennessee valley. Could see some light precipitation developing
late in the day across south central Missouri. With surface
temperatures in the mid 40s expecting initial precipitation to be
all rain.

Upper low will begin to push overhead during the overnight hours
with surface low tracking north-northeast into Kentucky by 12z
Wed. Temperatures aloft will certainly be cold enough for snow,
but will take some time for surface temperatures to drop below
where snow would reach the surface. Even then, with temperatures
above freezing most of the snow reaching the ground should quickly
melt. As a result, don`t have much in the way of accumulating snow
through Wednesday with this system. Generally speaking, around a
tenth of an inch to 0.8 of an inch being the highest over parts of
south central Missouri. Most accumulations will be on grassy areas
or elevated surfaces and should not cause much of a travel impact.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

By Wednesday evening, the low will have lifted into the Great
Lakes region and the upper trough will have pushed east through
the area. Not expecting any lingering snow behind the upper trough
on Wednesday night. Temperatures should drop back into the mid to
upper 20s for lows.

Pick day of the week looks to be on Christmas day with upper level
ridging overhead and fairly strong low level warm advection. It
does appear to be quite breezy, but enough sunshine and warm air
advection will warm temperatures back into the mid 40s to low 50s
for highs.

Another cold front will move into the area late Friday with most
of the precipiation occurring along or behind this next front with
an upper level wave. Temperatures initially look warm enough for
mostly rainfall, but temperatures aloft eventually cool to where
some light snow may be possible on the tail end of the event
Saturday night into Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG airports: The period starts with vfr
conditions for a change. A sfc front will move through the region
by 18z-20z shifting light winds to the northwest. Another
disturbance will increase clouds late in the taf period, with
possibly some mvfr ceilings toward 24/00z-24/06z. Some light snow
may be possible, but better chances look to hold off until after
this taf period.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.