Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180753
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
153 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Gradual Warming Trend and More Active Weather through the
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Patchy to areas of fog will persist through this morning
particularly on the higher terrain due to stratus build down.
Otherwise expect clouds to persist today as an upper low pressure
system lifts northeast from the Texas Big Bend region. A deepening
southerly flow ahead of this system will advect deep moisture into
the region. Cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side
today.

A few sprinkles or light showers could develop across far southern
this afternoon into this evening but expect a greater coverage of
scattered showers later tonight as a shortwave trough swings
around the upper low toward the Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Scattered showers will continue if not increase across south
central Missouri Thursday as the shortwave lifts north. The best
chance of rain Thursday will generally be east of Highway 65.
Mid level cooling and steeper lapse rates will be supportive of
some modest destabilization and the potential for a few
thunderstorms.

Milder temperatures will occur Friday into Saturday as the upper
low fills and exits to the northeast and 500 MB heights rise and a
deep southerly flow persists. Highs will climb to near 60 Thursday
and into the 60s on Saturday.

A series of strong storm systems moving onto the west coast will
carve out an upper trough that will move into the central U.S.
later this weekend. Model solutions continue to depict the
formation of a closed upper low tracking across the lower
Mississippi River Valley on Sunday. The result will be at least
scattered if not widespread showers on Sunday before ending from
the west on Monday.

Relatively mild weather will persist into early next week but
models suggest an airmass more typical of late January could
arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

An IFR stratus deck is over the region late this evening and will
remain over the area into Wednesday. Ceilings are expected to
lower into the LIFR range later tonight. Fog is also expected
overnight as ceilings lower.

Ceilings will slowly improve Wednesday afternoon, but will remain
in the MVFR range. Ceilings will then lower again into the
IFR/LIFR range Wednesday evening as fog development and drizzle
will be possible.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise



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