Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220735
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
235 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Little looks to change over the next few days as excessive heat
continues across the region. Highs today look to be at least as
warm as yesterday, and perhaps a degree or so higher in a few
spots. With dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s all day,
heat indices will range from 105 to 112, with the highest readings
north of I-44. With 105+ now expected through the weekend for the
entire CWA, will go ahead and expand the Excessive Heat Warning to
include the entire CWA. Other than a couple of small pulse
thunderstorms over the eastern Ozarks this afternoon, today should
be dry for most areas.

That said, one potential minor wrinkle in today`s forecast is the
convective complex that moved south into northern Illinois early
this morning. It looks like the outflow associated with that will
make it to the Mississippi River or so before washing out, but
should it continue further southeast into the area, it could
affect temperatures later today. For now, though, it looks to stay
northeast of the region, but we will continue to watch things
closely.

Lows tonight will again only fall into the mid to upper 70s area-
wide.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Temps tomorrow look very similar to today, with mid to upper 90s
across the region. A slight westward shift in the upper ridge may
allow for slightly better coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
across the eastern Ozarks, though again, most locations will
remain dry.

By Sunday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken slightly, with
temperatures a degree or two cooler. In addition, this should
allow for a decent coverage of afternoon thunderstorms, though
chances for any given location are probably in the 20 percent
range at best.

A much better chance for rain then looks to develop Sunday night
into Monday, as a shortwave passing across the northern Plains and
southern Great Lakes aids in the generation of a MCS across the
I-80 corridor, which is then expected to push south into the area
late Sunday night into Monday morning as the low level jet veers.
Right now, it appears that bulk shear may be a little weak to
support a widespread severe weather threat with this MCS, though
some stronger wind gusts seem possible given a fair amount of
instability.

This system will also push a frontal boundary south into the
northern part of Missouri, though right now it appears like it
probably won`t make it south of I-70. Regardless, this should
result in a fairly high concentration of thunderstorms across the
region on an afternoon basis through the remainder of the
workweek. Bulk shear will be decent for this time of year--20 kt
or so--so some storm organization is possible. As is usually the
case this time of year, damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern with any of the stronger storms.

Higher rain chances and more cloud cover will knock temps down
several degrees compared to this weekend, with readings looking
to be in the upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Pilots can expect a continuation of VFR conditions at area
terminals tonight and Friday as summer time high pressure
dominates our weather. Light southerly surface winds will persist.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ082-090>092-094>097-
     101>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-083-088-089-093-098-106.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster



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