Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 101954

254 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

An area of rainfall associated with an MCV is moving east across
northern and central Arkansas this afternoon, with a few light
showers/sprinkles occurring north into southern Missouri.  This
activity should remain to the south through tonight, with little in
the way of impacts to the area.

A warm front will also continue to progress northeast across the
area tonight.  Lift along this front looks to be rather weak, with
the best ascent (in a relative) sense, remaining focused to our
north.  As a result, kept PoPs below mentionable levels for the
overnight hours tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

The passage of that warm front will usher in a much warmer airmass
for Friday through the weekend.  Temperatures tomorrow will warm
into the upper 80s east to low 90s west, with low to mid 90s
area-wide for Saturday and Sunday.  It does look like enough dry air
will be able to mix down during the heat of the afternoon this
weekend to keep heat indices from getting too far out of control,
though readings around 100 will be common.

Temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees cooler as heights relax
a bit aloft, before a very strong cold front then passes through the
area Monday evening.  While not a great setup, will need to watch
for some stronger storms Monday evening with the front given it`s

Behind the front, a remarkably cool airmass will build into the area
for the middle of next week.  With 850 temps dropping into the
single digits, highs in the 70s look probable, with lows dropping
into the 50s.

A gradual warming trend will then begin for the end of next week as
heights begin to rise.  However, with the northern jet remaining
active across the northern U.S. Plains/southern Canada, some
variation of northwest flow should continue into at least next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An overcast mid level cloud
deck that is currently over the area will slowly clear from
northwest to southeast this afternoon. An area of showers will
also slowly push east and weaken across far southern Missouri this
afternoon, and may affect the Branson area this afternoon. This
activity will be light and could have an embedded rumble of
thunder or two in it.

Southeasterly to southerly winds and VFR conditions are expected
this evening through Friday morning.




LONG TERM...Boxell
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