Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Modest instability around 1200-1500j/kg this afternoon along with
an upper level trough moving across the region were contributing
to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms early this
afternoon. No severe storms are expected, though a strong storm or
two could be possible. Storms will be mainly focused along and
east of Interstate 49 with the bulk of the activity east of
Highway 65.

The storms will be efficient rain producers. With precipitable
water values around 1.75 inches, rain rates will be near and inch
per hour where the strongest cells occur. Some small hail, to pea
size, may fall with the strongest storms though high freezing
levels will limit hail production significantly.

Despite increasing clouds and showers, temperatures this afternoon
are still on track to reach the middle 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A slowly weakening trough is moving into western Missouri this
morning. Within the past hour or so...scattered showers and a few
rumbles of thunder have develop across southwest Missouri into
Central Missouri. This activity will continue to move eastward
this morning. The best rain chances for today will be over the
eastern Ozarks as western areas will be mainly dry today. Highest
temperatures will be out west and slightly cooler out east. Quiet
and drier weather expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Sunday will be mostly hot and drier. There could be an isolated
shower or storm that pops up out to the far east but otherwise
looks good for outdoor activities area wide.

A better defined front will move into the area Monday afternoon
and night. Dynamics with this system and associated upper level
support is a little more interesting with that latest model
guidance.

Southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks will be in a right
entrance region of an upper level jet. Bulk shear will be between
40 to 50 knots. Surface temperatures should warm to around 90
ahead of the frontal boundary. MUCape values will be on the order
of 2000 to 3000 KG/J. A slight risk of severe storms looks
favorable Monday afternoon into Monday night for most of the area.
Looks like a squall line or possible MCS will be the main storm
mode and the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The frontal boundary stalls out over the area Tuesday and will
continue a chance for additional convection and storms. The front
will wash out by Wednesday and rain chances go down. Will maintain
a dry and seasonable hot weather for the end of next week as it
looks like the upper level ridge of high pressure will be in
control of our weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The aviation forecast for the Ozarks region i includes slowly
increasing shower and storm coverage this afternoon into this
evening. periods of MVFR ceilings will occur, especially where
storms move near the areas terminals. With the scattered coverage,
elected to include only VCSH for the regions TAFS. Expectations
are for decreasing coverage of showers and storms this evening
with VFR conditions expected after sunset.

around sunrise and into early in the morning on Sunday, some
limitations to visibilities may occur at the KSGF and KBBG
terminals. This would be in response to any rainfall that fell
this afternoon/evening. Conditions would be limited to MVFR
visibilities though.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch








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