Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221735

1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.


Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952




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