Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 021132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Another fairly quiet day is in the forecast for the Missouri
Ozarks/southeast Kansas today. There are no precip changes in the
ongoing forecast. Weak high pressure is still in control of our
weather pattern. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer today
with most locations reaching the lower and middle 90s. The heat
index will be fairly close to the actual air temperature once
again. Like yesterday...will not rule out a very isolated shower
or rogue storm popping up across the central Missouri area down to
the eastern Ozarks. The chance of rain will be about 10 percent at
best. Most areas will remain just dry and sunny today. A weak
disturbance will be passing by the region to our northeast tonight
and there may be a slight chance for a shower or storm to brush by
our central Missouri area late tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

The upper level ridge will remain across the southwestern U.S. and
a trough will remain across the Great Lakes region for most of
this week. A weak frontal boundary will kinda sag into the
Missouri Ozarks area starting Monday night into Tuesday. The first
of several shortwaves will begin to affect the area starting
Tuesday. This will bring the chance for scattered thunderstorms
especially areas north of Highway 60 Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night.

Another shortwave may move across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday...followed by another stronger wave Thursday night into
Friday. The overall message for the middle and end of this
upcoming week will be the increasing potential for several rounds
of thunderstorms. Overall average rainfall expected will be 1 to 3
inches with isolated higher amounts possible this week.
Will have to continue to watch for trends for any possible hydro
issues due to several rounds of thunderstorms expected over the
same areas. At this time...no organized severe weather is expected.

Model guidance has trended cooler with the temperatures by the end
of the week and next weekend. A piece of a Canadian airmass is
going to try to sneak into the area by the end of the week. Highs may
be in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s which is
very pleasant for this time of year!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected over southwest MO for the next 24
hours as upper level high pressure and capping inversion keep
storm activity to our north and west. We went ahead included a
wind shift to the southwest by mid morning when 925/850 mb winds
begin to mix to the surface. The winds should back to around 180
azimuth around sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry







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