Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281923

223 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Upper pattern continues to have ridging over the central U.S. with
an embedded area of low pressure and associated shortwave energy
remaining cutoff across Iowa and northern Missouri. Further to the
west, a large upper level low remains over the southwestern U.S. A
few cumulus have developed across the area again today, but
nothing has yet to develop into a shower across the area.
Temperatures have reached the upper 70s to low 80s across the area
so far this afternoon.

Forecast will focus on the upper level low pressure out west as it
begins to move into the central U.S. by the middle to later part
of the week. Thunderstorm chances will increase by Tuesday night
into Wednesday with best chances of convection on Wednesday night
into Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Cut off low and shortwave energy over Iowa and northern Missouri
will begin to shift southeast later this afternoon and tonight as
the larger low out to the west begins to kick out of the southwest
U.S. Dry conditions are expected over the area through Monday with
lows tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s and highs again on Monday
in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Upper ridging will be in place over the area on Monday night into
Tuesday as the upper low lifts into the northern Plains. Upper
level energy and diffluence will spread into western CWA Tuesday
night into Wednesday with precipitation beginning to spread east
into the area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The main
action will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday though as trough
and cold front will begin pushing east into the area. 0-6 shear
values look pretty impressive with certainly enough instability
for strong to potentially severe storms to be possible during this
time frame.

Cooler and drier weather will move in over the weekend with
northwest flow setting up behind the trough. Below normal
temperatures are expected over the weekend and possibly into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will be light and variable, under a cumulus clouds
this afternoon. Eventually skies will clear tonight.

Light winds and ideal flying conditions will continue into Monday.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.