Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 242050
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
...FLOODING EXPECTED THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Sunshine and south breezes boosted temperatures into the 60s
today. Gulf moisture was transporting northward into the southern
and central Plains, but had not made it to the Ozarks yet. As a
matter of fact, elevated fire weather conditions were observed in
most areas as relative humidity values dropped below 30%.
These south winds will keep the Ozarks airmass mixed tonight
lending to mild temperatures. Temperatures will only fall into the
middle and upper 40s along and west of Highway 65. Readings in the
upper 30s are possible out toward the eastern Ozarks.
Wednesday should be mostly dry, although we`ll have to watch for
some warm advection showers that always seem to affect the area
under these situations. We can also expect a lot more cloud cover
on Wednesday, however, temperatures will still warm into the 60s
in most locations.
Showers will increase in coverage Wednesday night, although, not
all locations will receive rain.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Moderate to heavy rain will impact the region Thursday through
Saturday night as a large slow moving storm system forces
unseasonable amounts of Gulf moisture into the Ozarks. Models are
indicating that this system is becoming less and less progressive
The heaviest rain will expand across southern Missouri Thursday
night into Friday as a frontal system slowly sags through the
A continuous band or moderate to heavy rain is suggested by the
GFS to persist across areas southeast of Interstate 44 as we
advance into Friday night through Saturday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF show rain finally ending by Sunday morning.
Our official forecast suggests widespread rainfall amounts ranging
from 3 to 6 inches.
Coming off of widespread flooding from last week`s episode,
streamflows are above average. Soil conditions are moist, and
vegetation is lacking across the southern Missouri terrain.
Therefore, the Ozarks hydrologic basins and channels should be
much more susceptible to flooding with this round of heavy rain.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR flight conditions will prevail
through much of the evening at the taf sites. Persistent southerly
low level low will continue to advect moisture northward on
increasing low level jet. Stratus to advect/develop into Oklahoma
and southeast Kansas late tonight then spread eastward. Expect
flight conditions to deteriorate after 11Z tonight with ceilings
dropping into the MVFR category towards the end of the taf period with
the possibility of light showers or some patchy drizzle. There is
some guidance suggesting an earlier onset of the MVFR ceilings, so
confidence on the timing is medium. Although surface winds should
remain above 12 knots at KJLN and KSGF through the period, 45 knot
low level jet will result in low level wind shear through the