Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

An area of rain/thunderstorms over eastern Kansas is associated
with an approaching shortwave that is expected to move through
the forecast area today. Near term high res models tend to
somewhat weaken the precip as it moves into the western cwfa
later this morning with a weakening and veering of the low level

By mid- late afternoon the shortwave begins to pull away to
the east away from the sfc front and better sfc based instability.
A brief window may exists for stronger storms this afternoon where
MLCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg may exist over the far western cwfa ahead
of the sfc front (or along left over convective boundaries).
However, with the passage of the shortwave and rising 500mb
heights, it may be hard to get robust updrafts going despite some
moderate instability. Some convective allowing guidance have
better updrafts to our sw over OK where the upper level shear axis
hangs on longer.

Will continue to mention a brief marginal severe storm risk in
our far sw counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Weak high pressure will move in for Thu, then look for the warm
weather to continue Fri/Sat as s-ssw sfc winds become well
established along with a broad upper level ridge. A weak front
will move sse into the area Sat night and early Sunday before
washing out.

The progressive cycle will repeat again Sunday/Mon with gusty s
winds ahead of another approaching sfc trough. Guidance differs
by Tue with placement of a sfc features and moisture return. The
GFS is more bullish for precip chances versus the ECMWF. Splitting
the difference introduces at least some chances for rain by Tue
over the northern cwfa, but not much at this point. Guidance
really diverges (GFS versus ECMWF) day 7 and beyond so confidence
in the latter part of the extended is lower than normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Pilots can expect VFR to MVFR flying conditions for this afternoon
as a cold front moves into the region. A band of light rain
showers will continue to affect SGF and BBG early this afternoon
before moving eastward. Winds will be southwest this afternoon
under 10 knots with a switch to northerly very late tonight. All
model guidance indicate a low stratus deck of clouds to develop
late this evening and overnight with IFR ceilings and visibility
drop. Some guidance suggest some dense fog may develop but
confidence is low at this time. Will maintain IFR potential late
tonight and early tomorrow morning before conditions improve
greatly by late tomorrow morning.




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