Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270429
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A highly amplified upper level pattern with a large ridge over the
western CONUS and deep trough axis over the MS Vly region will
keep the region in a nw flow pattern in the near term. A shortwave
over the Dakotas embedded in that flow will move quickly se
through the area early Friday. A short period of rain/snow is
indicated by most guidance, certainly nothing major, but could see
some snow flakes and a brief very light accumulation late tonight
and early Fri morning. Temperatures will be unseasonably cold, but
somewhat modified by increasing clouds.

Otherwise will see the long wave trough axis start continue to shift
east on Friday with decreasing clouds by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Another nw flow disturbance is indicated late Friday night into
Saturday morning. The retreating cold air mass will still support
some snow or a rain/snow mix over the eastern cwfa, but with
warmer low level temperatures expect rain over the west. Again,
only light precip is expected. The GFS is a bit more bullish with
qpf, but seems to be an outlier compared to other guidance. Still,
could see some minor snow accumulation where a band of somewhat
heavier precip sets up.

We will finally transition back to milder weather over the
upcoming weekend with a shortwave ridge moving into the region
late Saturday/early Sunday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement
with a shortwave and a sfc trough passage Sunday with only a very
limited chance for rain. Mild weather is expected early next week.
An active zonal pattern develops by midweek with a general
increase for chances for showers/tstms, but guidance understandably
varies greatly on the position of individual waves in the fast
zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Quick moving upper level shortwave will continue to track across
the area overnight with clouds continuing to increase and lower
through the night. May see some very light precipitation also
occur and have included a rain/snow mix given the thermal profile
overnight. Ceilings may drop down into MVFR for several hours
overnight and into the early morning, however improving conditions
will occur back into VFR on Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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