Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232355

655 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...00z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the taf sites this evening
into overnight however confidence is low in timing with multiple
rounds of convection. Expect a gradual drop to MVFR ceilings overnight. Low
level windshear is likely at SGF and BBG overnight due to a
strengthening low level jet. IFR ceilings are possible at BBG by
early morning tomorrow but confidence is low. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day tomorrow. Winds
will be elevated with gusts out of the SE around 10-15kts.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.



LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.