Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211715

1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A cold front was in the process of moving south across Missouri
early this morning. Despite around 1200 J/KG of instability,
showers and storms were having a difficult time developing.
Widely scattered showers were occurring but convection was rather
limited. This may be due to the gentle slope of the cold front and
little to no upper level support. Showers and storms are still
expected to move across the Ozarks through early this morning.
Storms that do develop will remain below severe limits however.

A cool Canadian airmass will filter into the region behind the
front today with highs only climbing into the middle 70s to near
80 along the Arkansas state line. This will begin a period of
cooler fall weather that will continue for much of the coming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

The cool Canadian high will dominate the region`s weather for much
of the coming week. While an upper level short wave will make an
attempt to break down an upper level ridge by mid week, models
have the ridge holding strong and keeping the region dry through
the week and into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected at
the TAF sites this afternoon through Sunday morning and beyond.
Gusty northerly winds will occur this afternoon. Surface high
pressure will then begin to slowly build over the area tonight
into Monday, with winds becoming more easterly Monday morning.




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