Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

FXUS63 KSGF 250755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Early this morning, a large area of convection extended from
southeast Nebraska, through eastern Kansas and into northeast
Oklahoma. Storms have been weakening over the past several hours as
outflow was racing out ahead of it, but was still producing some 30
to 40 mph wind gusts. Expect this weakening trend to continue as
this area moves east into the the forecast area this morning. At
this time not expecting anything severe, but will continue to
monitor trends. Convection will push east of the area this
afternoon. Not much confidence in any re-development later this
afternoon as atmosphere likely to be worked over by the morning
convection. However, remnant outflow boundaries combined with the
moist and unstable airmass could result in some isolated to widely
scattered storms.

Not much expected overnight tonight as main activity will be
centered further west and north of the area, but cannot rule out an
isolated storm or two through the overnight hours.

Look for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer today with highs
in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Pattern changes very little Thursday with main surface boundary
remaining across western Kansas and southwest flow aloft over the
region. Atmosphere will remain moist and unstable, but no
definitive triggering mechanism to key on outside of remnant
outflow boundaries. Thus, expect convective activity to be
somewhat limited in areal coverage. Will have to watch Thursday
night, as low level jet over Oklahoma and Texas shifts eastward
during the night and may sustain convection over the Kansas and
Nebraska long enough to reach portions of area overnight. Any
severe threat with these would be mainly damaging winds and hail.

Medium range models continue to show a more significant shortwave
trough to lift across southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks
Friday night and Saturday morning. Surface boundary pushes further
westward, but at this time models keep it to our west. None the
less, expect at least a marginal risk for severe weather as ample
shear and instability look to be in place. Flooding also looks to
become a concern given the multiple rounds of thunderstorms leading
up to this.

For Saturday through Tuesday, pattern changes very little with
general troughiness across the west and southwest flow through the
mid section of the country. This will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the period along with a warm and rather
humid period. Certainly not everyday will be a wash out as there
will be some dry periods, and given flow cannot rule out the
potential for some episodes of severe weather as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Following convection in both central KS and northeast OK late this
evening. Models start to bring leading edge of rain shield into
the CWA after 08z with the main convection after around 09-10z
which was fairly in-line with 00z TAFS, so have not altered much
from original thinking. Convection in Kansas may affect mostly
areas north of our CWA, at least until outflow from MCS can move
into the area during the day Wednesday at which point it becomes
more of a mesoscale redevelopment problem. For now, will go with
original thoughts with main probability of convection between 08
and around 14z. Conditions outside of convection will mainly be in
VFR although some stray pockets of IFR have been shifting through
the area. Within convection will dip into MVFR/IFR tonight into
Wednesday morning.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.