Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220739

239 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
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