Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 101755
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A prevailing northwesterly upper level flow will maintain influence
on the region today. Models continue to depict a band of light
snow to develop today across eastern Missouri as an upper level
jet max streaks southeastward from the northern Plains to the mid
Mississippi valley and weak surface cyclogenesis occurs over the
central Plains. The band of snow is expected within an axis of
strengthening 850-700 MB frontgenesis. At this time it appears
this snowfall may impact the eastern Ozarks and central Missouri
as far west as the Highway 63 corridor or generally east of a
Eldon to Salem line where there could be a dusting.

A substantial temperature gradient will set up today from
southwest to northeast with highs remaining below freezing in the
eastern Ozarks but rising to near 50 along the Kansas and Oklahoma
borders.

Overall forecast certainty through tonight is high but with some
uncertainty on the exact placement the western extent of the snow
in the eastern Ozarks today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The northwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue the remainder
of the week into the week. A reinforcing surface high will build
southward Thursday. After a brief warmup will occur Friday before a
another more substantial Canadian high pressure system builds
southward on Saturday.

A pronounced shortwave trough will slide southeastward from the
northern Rockies into the Plains on Sunday while a warm air
advection pattern develops over the region. The strength and depth
of the warm air advection will be key to exact precipitation
types. We could very well see a wintry mix with highs Sunday in
the 30s. At this time it appears any precipitation will be light
with any snow accumulation on the light side should it transpire.

The northwesterly flow pattern will persist into early next before
models suggest a more zonal upper pattern later next week.

Overall forecast certainty is high although precipitation type
and amounts on Sunday remain uncertain. Stay tuned to the latest
weather forecast as the forecast will be refined as we approach
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A winter clipper system was moveing across areas of the eastern
Ozarks but should remain east of the regions TAF sites. General
VFR flight conditions are expected through the remainder of today
and overnight tonight. Low level wind shear will impact the
Branson terminal for a period late this evening but otherwise no
impacts are expected.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch


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