Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper level low over southern California is expected to make its
way into southern Colorado by 00z Friday. The surface front is
situated from a low over northern South Dakota into a second low
over south central Kansas with a dryline extending into west

The convection from earlier today has worked over the atmosphere
pretty well. As such...will keep PoPs low as not much around but
a few outflow boundaries to act as a trigger and convection would
be isolated to widely scattered at best.

The surface front on Thursday meanders on the northern end but
does not make much progress on the southern end. So...despite and
warm and unstable air mass across the region...the lack of a
triggering mechanism will limit both the intensity and coverage of
any convection

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

As we move into late week...the upper low out west will lift into
the northern plains. This combined with a low level jet forming
over Oklahoma overnight on Thursday...could allow storms over the
central plains to make it into our area. A few of these storms
have the potential to become severe with damaging winds and large
hail being the primary threat.

For the Memorial Day weekend...the upper low continues to lift
into southern Canada taking the surface front with it as well.
Without an actual frontal passage...the area remains within the
warm sector. With a series of impulses moving through the upper
level southwest flow pattern...scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain a possibility as well. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal normal.

By Monday evening into Tuesday...a new cutoff low forms over
southern California keeping the area within southwest flow under a
warm and humid air mass which will continue the current pattern
through the remainder of the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Clouds are clearing quickly
from west to east behind the convection that occurred this
morning. Gusty winds will occur this afternoon, and may remain
breezy into the overnight hours.

Do not expect much in the way of additional storms across the area this
afternoon even with the sun coming out. Late this afternoon into
this evening additional storms may develop across central Kansas
and may track east into the area tonight. Confidence is not high
that this activity will be able to make it into the area and
affect the TAF sites at this time to include a mention of
convection in the TAFS.

Ceilings may lower overnight but confidence is not high the
ceilings below VFR will occur at this time.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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