424
FXUS63 KSGF 100738
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (<10-15%) of rain today, then higher rain chances
  (30-60%) continue into next week. Highest chances occur in
  the afternoon and evenings.

- Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the
  upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
  few locations may see heat index values around 100 degrees
  towards the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2025

Surface high pressure was located over southeast MO late
evening/early overnight, which has allowed for a pleasant night,
with temperatures ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some
patchy fog will be possible before sunrise, primarily over
portions of the eastern Ozarks where there were a few showers
yesterday, however not expecting any impacts to occur.

Today will be similar to yesterday, with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s (eastern Ozarks) to low 90s (elsewhere). Models depict
a subtle shortwave pushing through the region later this
afternoon which could bring isolated showers and a few rumbles
of thunder, however most of the area will remain dry. Kept pops
<10-15% area-wide. The most likely scenario is for it to be
another warm, dry summer day with light and variable winds.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the upper 60s over the
eastern Ozarks to the low/mid 70s elsewhere.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2025

Starting Friday, we`ll begin to see a pattern change through at
least the weekend, with several upper level shortwave troughs
progged to push through the area and southwesterly surface flow
returning moisture to the region. As a result, daily chances
(30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms will exist, with the
higher chances during the afternoon and evening hours. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted areas along and north of
Highway 60 in a Marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather on
Friday, with damaging winds up to 60 mph as the primary hazard.
All day washouts are not expected, however some heavier
localized rainfall will be possible where rain does occur.

Afternoon highs will range in the mid/upper 80s to the low 90s
through the weekend. With increased dewpoints due to the
moisture return, Heat Index values are expected to climb to
around 100 degrees, primarily Friday afternoon.

Daily afternoon rain chances (30-50%) will then continue through
much of the work week next week as the active pattern continues
and several shortwave troughs push through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the entire TAF
period, with light and variable winds. Some patchy fog may be
possible overnight at KBBG, however this is not expected to
impact the flight category.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto