National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 141101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A warm and dry airmass is currently in place across the region
early this morning. These conditions will allow temperatures to
warm well into the 60s this afternoon. There is a weak upper level
disturbance currently pushing east across the southern Plains
early this morning. The airmass is too dry to support any
precipitation with this feature but clouds will increase over the
region this morning with clearing expected from west to east
later this afternoon. These clouds may hold temperatures down a
few degrees. Areas that see more sun could warm into the lower 70s
this afternoon, temperatures will depend on the cloud cover.

Also a weak cold front will slide south through the region from
the northwest to southeast late this morning into this afternoon.
Do not expect temperatures to cool much behind the front, but
areas that see the frontal passage this morning may not warm quite
as much. Did go on the warm side of guidance with highs warming
into the middle 60s to near the 70 degree mark with the warmest
readings occurring across southern Missouri.

Breezy and gusty southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the front early
this morning into this afternoon. Winds will weaken from northwest
to southeast late this morning through this afternoon as the front
approaches and passes through the region. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the frontal passage.

These warm, dry, and breezy conditions will result in elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon. Please see the fire
weather discussion section below for more details.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

Another warm day will occur on Saturday as highs again warm well
into the 60s with some locations warming into the 70s quite
possible.

An upper level trough will push east out of the southwestern U.S.
Saturday into Sunday. Surface low pressure will develop across
eastern Texas and spread across Arkansas Saturday into Sunday.
Widespread rainfall will spread northeast into the early late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There will be enough
instability for some embedded thunderstorms within this rain. Could
see a nice rain out of this with half an inch to over an inch of
rain expected.

Another upper level trough will dive out of the northwestern U.S.
and phase with the southern system late Saturday night into
Sunday. This will allow a colder airmass to spread into the region
during day on Sunday, as temperatures fall through the 30s. As a
result snow will likely mix with and change over to snow from
northwest to southeast Sunday. There could be a dusting of snow
that occurs with this snow on Sunday.

After the cold temperatures Sunday and Sunday night temperatures
warm right back up early next week. Another system will track
through the region during the middle of next week bringing
additional chance for rain to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

Gusty winds are expected today out of the south to southwest in
advance of a cold front/wind shift trough which will push through
late in the day. Winds should diminish quickly by late afternoon
with light and variable winds expected after 01-02z. VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

Temperatures will be a little tricky today as clouds increase
across the region and a weak cold front passes through the area
late this morning through this afternoon. However, with a warm and
dry air mass in place across the region temperatures should warm
well into the 60s as relative humidities quickly fall this
morning into this afternoon. Afternoon minimum humdities are
expected to drop to around 25 percent with some locations falling
closer to 20 percent possible.

Breezy and gusty southwesterly winds are developing currently
across the area early this morning and will continue ahead of the
front today as winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
occur at times. The weak cold front will spread from northwest to
southeast across the area late this morning into this afternoon.
The pressure gradient will relax allowing winds to weaken some
near and behind the front this afternoon. Winds will also switch
to the northwest behind the front. The pressure gradient does not
appear to tighten that much behind the front and not expecting winds
to be as strong behind the front but northerly winds around 10 mph
can be expected. These conditions will result in elevated fire
danger today. Humidities will be right at red flag criteria
however, winds are expected to remain below red flag criteria.
Therefore, will not issue a Red Flag Warning for today, but again
elevated fire danger will sill occur this morning and afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Wise