Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 270533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann




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