Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 072336 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0215 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2015

Surface high pressure will remain over the Ozarks tonight before
shifting to the east tonight. The proximity of the high along with
a moist low level airmass will again result in patchy fog late
tonight and early Thursday.

Southerly winds will increase Thursday as the surface high shifts
to the east and a cold front approaches from the northwest. These
factors will bump high temperatures up to near 80 degrees Thursday

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2015

A shortwave will track from the northern Rockies and into the
Great Lakes region by Thursday night and Friday dragging a cold
front southward across the region. This front will enter the
Ozarks region late Thursday night push south of the area Friday

Scattered to numerous showers along with scattered thunderstorms
will develop southeastward across the area Thursday night as the
front drops southward. Instability will be limited while shear
profiles and mid level lapse rates remain rather weak. These
factors will limit any risk of severe weather. Expect convection
to impact areas from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri by
late Thursday evening then spread southeastward across southern
Missouri during the overnight hours Thursday night.

An upper level trough axis will swing across the region Friday as
the upper pattern amplifies. This allow Canadian high pressure to
build southward in the wake of the exiting cold front. Showers and
perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will linger Friday morning but
end from the northwest as the day progresses. This will result in
a considerably cooler day Friday.

Another extended period of quiet weather is expected to take hold
this weekend and persist into next week. Another front is progged
to push across the region Monday but little if any precipitation
is expected. Temperatures will be seasonably mild to cool. The
next legitimate chance of rain will arrive late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0636 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2015

Overall, VFR conditions will dominate over the next 24 hours. Mix
of mid/high level cloud cover will linger over the area tonight,
breaking up Thursday morning, with an increase in coverage again
later Thursday afternoon. There remains enough low level moisture
to support light fog (MVFR) at SGF/BBG around/prior to sunrise.
Otherwise no significant issues are expected. Rain chances will
eventually rise just beyond the end of the TAF cycle.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.