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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191713
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AT MIDDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT
CONNECTING THE TWO. A DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH OUT OF THE LOW ACROSS
KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
IS LOCATED FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL THEN STALL THERE. THE CLOUDS WERE
CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED AS AN
ELEVATED MIX LAYER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CAP WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT FORCING ALONG
THE DRY LINE CAN OVERCOME IT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE DRY LINE AND
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE
STORM MODE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND
COMBINE WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.

DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD POOL SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY BEFORE OR AS THESE STORMS PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS LINE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF AN ANDERSON TO WARSAW MISSOURI LINE. FARTHER TO THE EAST THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT AS GOOD SO THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. A LINE OF STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGHT.

THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE SO THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT A WIND RISK THROUGH THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK
WITHIN LINE SECTIONS THAT MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 4 AM AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AROUND SUNRISE.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A WARSAW TO
ANDERSON MISSOURI LINE. IF THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA DEVELOP INTO
A LINE SOONER THIS WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF EMBEDDED
SPIN UP TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE. IF SUPERCELLS CAN MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG TORNADO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

THE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THEN TO THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT
THEN EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 OVERNIGHT WHERE IS WILL DISSIPATE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO PIN POINT THE EXACT TIMING AND STORM MODE WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AND STORMS DEVELOP. THE STORMS COULD FORM
INTO A LINE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ONGOING ELEVATED AND WEAKENING CONVECTION AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUPERCELLS AND/OR A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

RESIDUAL CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS
MADE ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE WESTERN
MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS LINGERED AND
STRUGGLED TO CONTINUE IN THE FACE OF A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM MAY OCCUR THROUGH
SUNRISE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND FIGHT THROUGH THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OZARKS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION AND AID IN ERODING THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION. CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASINGLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOSE IN THE  REGION AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
OVER THE OZARKS QUICKLY WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY
AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND BACKING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
OFF THE FRONT...COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION SHOULD RESULT IN A
DEVELOPING STRONG SQUALL LINE THAT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. THE STORMS MAY REMAIN SUPERCELLS AS FAR EAST AS
THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR BEFORE TRANSITIONING...HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE RESIDUAL SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS TO A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS.

THE WIND PROFILE...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED WOULD SUPPORT
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS. IF STORMS DO INDEED GO LINEAR...THERE WOULD BE AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MESOVORTEX POTENTIAL.

THE TIMING OF THE STORMS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IMPACTING LOCATIONS WEST OF I-49 FROM
5-9 PM TODAY AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LINGERING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING AND TORNADOES REMAINS THE
FOCUS FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ORIENTATION DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS CONTINUES TO LINE UP ALONG THE THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS. CAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN BE AROUND THE 2000 J/KG MARK.
THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION AND THE
JET STREAK PREVIOUSLY NOTED WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLOODING...IN RESPONSE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE.

THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOWER MOVEMENT TO THE EAST AND
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO TUESDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS DO INDICATE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE RIDGE AND BRING
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...FOSTER