Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282335

635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected through
late tonight. A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will
approach the region from the west late tonight and then move across
the taf sites on Saturday. Rain chances will increase after 12z-15z
Saturday from west to east and brought tempo/categorical wording
into the terminals for much of the day Saturday. A few of the
Meso-Models are indicating a break later in the afternoon at KJLN
and thus did back off to VCTS. Instability does increase later in the
taf period, especially affecting the KSGF and KBBG sites and did
mention thunder. MVFR ceilings possible within convective elements,
but for now kept VFR ceilings/visibilities.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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