Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 310506
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0614 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Isolated thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon and early
this evening along the periphery of an expanding area of outflow
from thunderstorms this morning. This outflow extends along the
I-49 corridor and then into the lakes region of central Missouri.
The eastern periphery then curls south into Shannon and Oregon
Counties. We expect isolated thunderstorms to continue along this
boundary early this evening before coverage decreases with the
setting sun. The remainder of the Ozarks will remain dry into
early this evening.

Later tonight, models indicate a low level jet nosing into the
area beneath an upper-level shear axis. Isentropic upglide will
develop across much of the Missouri Ozarks (most evident on the
305 K potential temperature surface). Parcels lifted in the
corresponding 925-850 mb layer will be relatively uncapped...
especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will therefore be possible.
Any activity north of the I-44 corridor would tend to be more
isolated in nature.

As was the case for late last night and this morning, we will
have to watch for a locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
where mesoscale lift can remain focused for an extended period of
time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 AM. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPEs
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and PW values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn`t completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the
region.

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



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