287
FXUS63 KSGF 300547
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of storms will continue to move south through central
  Missouri early this evening. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall
  and a localized flooding risk will occur with the strongest
  storms early this evening.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible late
  tonight into Monday ahead of a cold front, but there is still
  uncertainty in exact timing and track of storms. Nevertheless,
  there is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of these storms to
  become severe on Monday afternoon.

- Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following
  the frontal passage before long-range forecasts suggest heat
  and humidity returning for the 4th of July weekend and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Thunderstorms occurred across portions of central Missouri
overnight into this morning, producing locally heavy rainfall.
These storms have dissipated but produced an outflow boundary
that is pushing south across south central Missouri this
afternoon and generate some scattered showers and storms. this
activity will continue for the next few hours then push off to
the south and east.

Additional storms have developed across central Kansas into
west central Missouri. These storms are forming into a cluster
and a line of storms will more south through the area this
afternoon into early this evening. An unstable air mass is in
place ahead of these storms across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern and southern Missouri. Instability is weaker across
central Missouri do to morning convection that impacted these
locations. The line of storms are expected to continue to move
south along the instability gradient across southeastern Kansas
and southwestern Missouri. Deep layer shear will not be overly
strong but given the amount of instability and Theta-E
gradients, there will be the potential for some strong to
severe wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph with the strongest storms
within the line, mainly along and west of Highway 65 in the
better thermo. The storm flow is slow so locally heavy rainfall
will also occur with this activity. Storms will be possible east
of Highway 65, but with the weaker instability intensity should
be weaker overall but locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

This activity will move south through the area early this
evening and could see a break in the rain the rest of the
evening and tonight. There is some potential for additional
convection to develop north of the area and track south into the
area tonight into Monday morning. There are still questions on
if this activity develops and where it will track. The current
storms may limit instability some and the activity weakens as
it moves into the area or weakens prior to getting into the
area. A low level jet does develop again tonight into early
Monday and there may be enough uncapped elevated instability for
some potential for at least isolated storms to get into
portions of the area late tonight into Monday morning, but will
be dependent on exactly where storms develop to the north and
instability recovering.

An upper level shortwave trough and front will move east through
the area on Monday and additional showers and storms will
develop ahead of these features and move east across the area.
Heavy down pours will occur with the storms again but should
move off to the east fast enough to limit a widespread flooding
risk. Some gusty winds up to 50 to 60mph will be possible with
the storms especially east of Highway 65 Monday
afternoon/evening as better instability will develop with the
heating of the day.

Where sun occurs today and on Monday highs will warm into the
upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle
90s to around 100. Clouds from the storms will limit
temperatures across portions of the area with highs in the
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A slightly less humid air mass will move into the area behind
the front for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the middle
80s. Mainly dry conditions will occur across the area on these
day as a drier air mass and weaker instability.

The upper level ridge will build back over the region late week
into next weekend with highs return to around the 90 degree mark
and lows in the lower 70s. Heat index values in the middle 90s
to around 100 will also return to the area late week into next
weekend. With humidity values increase there will be a 10 to 30%
chance for daily showers and storms across the area, but with
the ridge build back over the area limiting the widespread
rainfall chances across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A NW to SE band of very slow-moving thunderstorms has developed
just SW of SGF, with some cells developing near BBG.
Simultaneously, a rain shield with embedded lightning is pushing
eastward into JLN. Therefore, thunderstorms can be expected at
or near the TAF sites until at least 08-10Z. Evolution of storms
is then uncertain after the 12Z timeframe with the potential for
multiple bands of scattered showers and thunderstorms along
outflow boundaries and/or an advancing cold front. BBG has the
highest chance of seeing storms during the 17-21Z timeframe,
with scattered development around all other TAF sites
potentially from 12-02Z. If a storm moves over the TAF sites,
heavy downpours limiting visibility, lightning, and wind gusts
up to 50-60 kts will all be possible.

Otherwise, 8-12 kt winds will shift from southwesterly to
westerly by 15Z, then to northerly by 02-06Z. Skies will also be
chaotic due to convective influences, with a small chance for
below MVFR cigs without precipitation (15-30% chance).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Price