000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.

High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.

Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s.  Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area.  Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet.  Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon.  Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.

As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains.  Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between.  The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis.  Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north.  The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.

After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise