Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290444 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Conditions today were quite normal for late October. Temperatures
warmed into the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies and light
breezes.

With a dry continental airmass in place, tonight`s temperatures
will trend much cooler than previous nights. Look for lows to
range from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Temperatures should
remain too warm for any frost potential tonight. No precipitation
is expected.

Not much changes for Wednesday with highs in the 60s and full
sunshine. Temperatures could certainly fall into the upper 30s early
Thursday morning as clear skies and light winds occur over
portions of central and south central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Water Vapor currently shows a speed max approaching the Washington
coast line. This feature is forecasted to zip across the Ozarks
Region on Thursday, bringing a risk for some light rain. We think
some spots will receive measurable rain, therefore we added some
precipitation chances to the Thursday period.

This upper wave will force a decent shot of Canadian air across
much of the nation`s mid section. This airmass will be the coldest
air of the fall season, causing temperatures to drop into the 20
and low 30s early Saturday morning.

Based off of our latest analysis, areas north of Highway 60, and
east of Highway 65, will receive the greatest chances for a hard
freeze. We currently have lows falling into the middle 20s in
these locations, under clear skies and light winds.

Elsewhere on Saturday morning, either a light freeze or a heavy
frost is expected. Most locations have not experienced any frost
this season, therefore it will likely be a killing frost.

No precipitation is expected through the upcoming weekend with
temperatures only warming into the 50s both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons.

Finally, there has been medium range model consistency with the
return of showers and thunderstorms early next work week. A
positively structured long wave trough is expected to force a
large area of convection from Texas to the upper midwest. Given the
structure of this pattern, the Gulf of Mexico will finally open up
bringing sufficient moisture transport northward for widespread
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Surface high pressure will dominate our weather regime resulting
in a clear sky and light/variable winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






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