Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251114
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Convection that developed across northeastern Kansas Sunday
evening has now spread into western Missouri early this morning.
The convection has weakened and will continue to do so. A shower
may move across the far northern portions of the forecast area but
most locations will remain dry as this activity continues to
weaken as it moves in.

An outflow boundary from the convection will move into the area.
As instability increases this afternoon will have to watch the
outflow for thunderstorms to redevelop across central Missouri
then track off to the northeast fairly quickly. Do not think
convection will occur that long across the area, but with
instability increasing a few strong storms will be possible
across central Missouri before the push off to the northeast later
this afternoon. Hail to the size of quarters will be the main
risk.

Cloud cover from the current convection to the north is spreading
south across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this
morning. These clouds will remain across the western portions of
the forecast area through the day keeping highs in the middle 70s.
More sunshine will occur across the eastern Ozarks will highs in
the lower 80s will occur this afternoon.

Isentropic lift will develop across the southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri overnight, and could generate some convection
overnight. Height rises will occur across the region overnight as
shortwave ridging moves overhead, which could limit the convection
potential. Did leave a chance for showers/thunderstorms overnight
across the western portions of the forecast area, given the lift
but not expecting coverage to be that great if any convection
can develop.

Warm conditions will occur tonight into Tuesday morning as lows
only drop into the middle 65s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

An upper level trough that is currently across the west coast
early this morning, will spread east into the plains on Tuesday.
Ahead of this system severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
from south central Nebraska to the south into central Texas. This
activity will then track east into the area later Tuesday evening
into Wednesday.

A strong cap will keep the area dry through much of the day
Tuesday until the storms that develop to the west spread in. A
very unstable air mass will develop across the area Tuesday
evening as MLCape values of 3000 to 4000J/kg develop. Deep layer
shear will increase late Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the
strong storm system approaches from the west. The thunderstorms
that develop along a dry line across Kansas and Oklahoma will
spread east into the area, with the potential for severe weather.
The storms that develop across OK and KS will be in the form of
supercells as they will be able to move off the dry line. The dry
line/cold front will remain to the west and will not spread into
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. So, its quite likely that
the cold pools from the supercells congeal and develop into a line
or line segments at some point, especially during the overnight
hours. The question is exactly where does that occur. All modes of
severe weather will be possible across the western forecast area
and may transition to more of a wind risk as the storms move east
overnight.

The cold front will move through the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The questions is how fast does the morning
convection move off to the east and can the air mass recover
ahead of the front. If enough heating can occur additional strong
to severe storms will be possible Wednesday late afternoon and
evening.

Dry weather will occur on Thursday as the system pushes off to the
east. Yet another system will move right back into the region
late Friday into the weekend bringing widespread thunderstorm
chances to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Area of stratus pushing across the area this morning, mainly
across northern half of the cwa, but another area pushing east out
of KS/OK into the area. Will begin with ceilings on the low side
of VFR but will likely drop into MVFR yet this morning at JLN/SGF.
Moisture remains in place across the area, but with higher sun
angles could see some of this break up. Have opted to keep in the
ceilings through the day and then drop into MVFR/IFR conditions
later tonight. Convection doesn`t appear to be widespread enough
late tonight to include in this set of aviation forecasts.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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