000
FXUS63 KSGF 210529
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN HAZARD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL BE THAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS A
LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. IF COVERAGE INCREASES AND
COLD POOLS CONGEAL...THE MCS WOULD DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
SLOW SYSTEM MOTION WOULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IF
COVERAGE INCREASES DOWN THERE...IT MAY IMPEDE THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHIFT THE MAIN HEAVY RAINFALL RISK INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
WE HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL AWAIT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS.

OTHERWISE...WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW ELEVATED HAILERS IF WE CAN GET
A BIT MORE ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE MAINLY
EXPECTING SUB-SEVERE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WHILE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WE
ARE THEN EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUD AND AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE ALSO COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP TO IFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ070-071-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN