Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280524
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1224 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A partly to mostly cloudy, but warm day is unfolding across the
Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s
area wide. A southerly low level flow has kept our region pretty
muggy today.

Through early afternoon, convection is developing, particularly
across northwestern Arkansas. These showers will drift northward
toward southern Missouri through the afternoon. Additional
development across central Missouri is expected along a shear
axis situated across that area.

A strong storm or two can`t be ruled out, however, weak shear and
lackluster instability will likely limit severe weather potential.
At the moment, think that frequent lightning and perhaps a
strong wind gust or two would be the primary threat for the
stronger cells. Additionally, with PW`s around 1.7-1.8", heavy
rainfall rates will be possible. Storms should quickly subside
around or shortly after sunset this evening with generally dry
conditions expected overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Southerly winds will keep humidity values rather elevated through
the long term. Afternoon showers and T`storms will be possible each
day during peak heating through the period. The better chances
of rain will come Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level flow
becomes more northwesterly and upper level impulses ride
southward through the area. No strong signal for widespread
severe weather, however, a strong storm or two with torrential
rain, frequent lightning, and perhaps some wind can`t be ruled
out.

Temperatures will be right around average for late August or
early September. With the possibility of rainfall each day and
proximity of an upper level ridge building west of the
region...it appears the warmest temperatures (upper 80s to near
90) will occur over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. The
"cooler" temperatures (middle to upper 80s) will occur across the
eastern portions of the Ozarks and central Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Pilots flying to area terminals can expect prevailing VFR
conditions tonight and Sunday. Some patchy light fog cannot be
ruled out toward sunrise Sunday especially at the Branson
terminal. Scattered afternoon cumulus will again develop Sunday
along with a few afternoon showers.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Foster



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