Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211755
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1155 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Light rain will continue mainly along and east of US Highway 65
this morning as an upper level low moves south of the area. Have
kept some lingering showers across south central missouri into the
afternoon closer to the upper low. Back edge of the cloud cover
along with some drier air is advecting into extreme southeast
Kansas and dense fog is occuring just west of the area. Think that
this will stay just west of the area this morning as additional
clouds move north into the area. However patchy fog will be
possible across most of the area through the morning.

Clouds will be slow to clear Today and temps will be warmer in
western Missouri versus south central Missouri. If clouds clear
faster/slower, then record high temps could be in jeopardy today.

Could be a decent fog event Tuesday night: moist ground from
rainfall, light winds, clear sky should allow for fog
development. High res models show dense fog potential overnight. Currently
the best potential will be across the southeastern half of the
area however this will be refined as we get closer.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Record high temperatures will be possible Wednesday and Thursday
as a mid level ridge builds into the area. Southwest surface
winds will also help to boost temps way above normal for February.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday,
Friday and Saturday as RH values drop below 30 percent in the
afternoons. Adjusted dewpoints down on Wednesday as models are
typically to moist in this southwest surface flow regime.

A strong storm system and associated surface low will skirt to
the north of the area Thursday into Friday. Most if not all precip
chances will remain to our north as model soundings indicate a
strong cap in place across the area.

Cooler temps will occur Saturday and Sunday behind that storm
system. Next chance of precip will occur Sunday night into Monday
as another storm system moves into the plains. Temperatures will
climb back above normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over northern AR will shift
southeast as a weak ridge of high pressure moves into the area.
Ongoing mvfr/ifr conditions are expected to improve over the next
few hours. However, light winds and a clearing sky will lead to
shallow dense (IFR) fog after 06z, especially where light rain
occurred today (KSGF and KBBG). The fog is expected to burn off
late in the taf period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
There will be the potential for additional record highs through
mid week with highs in the middle to upper 70s...

Record Highs Feb 21st Feb 22nd Feb 23rd
Springfield  73/1935 76/1995 79/1982
Joplin  76/1996 87/199679/1982
Vichy-Rolla  70/199276/199581/1982
West Plains  73/2016 74/200082/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA
CLIMATE...Burchfield



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