Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 202011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY
311 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

An upper level ridge along with a hot and humid air mass is
currently over the region. Temperatures this afternoon are
currently in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Temperatures may
warm another degree or two but are fairly close to what they will
top out at. Heat index values are current in the middle 90s to
around 100 degrees.

Lows tonight will cool into the low to middle 60s across south
central Missouri to around the 70 degree mark across southeastern
Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. Lows in the lower 60s
combined with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s
will result in the potential for some patchy fog tonight. The fog
potential will mainly occur across portions of south central
Missouri where the coolest readings will occur tonight into early
Wednesday morning.

The upper level ridge will remain over the region through the end
of the week resulting in the unseasonably hot and humid
conditions continuing. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to the
lower 90s each afternoon through Friday.

With the upper level ridge over the region little in the way of
triggers for showers and storms will occur this weekend with
mainly dry conditions expected. Also, dry air in the middle levels
will also limit precipitation chances through the rest of this

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

An upper level low will then track into the Plains this weekend and
will send a front to the southeast towards and into the area late
this weekend into early next week. Showers and storms will be
possible a long the front. Instability is expected to be limited
enough so severe weather is expected at this time. Medium range
models do differ on the exact track, timing, and strength of this
system. This will impact exactly when and how long rain chances
will occur across the area early next week. Cooler conditions
will occur early next week with an increase in clouds and the
front moving through.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: A hot and humid air mass is
currently in place across the region this afternoon. There is no
forcing for storms, but just given the amount of instability from
the heating of a day an isolated pulse type storm or two may be
possible. If any storms can develop coverage will be very limited
with most locations remaining dry. Therefore, confidence in both
storms developing and then affecting a TAF site is to low to
include any mention in the TAFs at this time.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through
Wednesday morning. Winds will be out of the south to southwest.
Diurnal cumulus clouds will occur this but will dissipate this
evening with mainly clear skies expected overnight.


Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Below are record highs and record warm low temperatures, and
corresponding years, for the next few days.


9/20--97/1954, 71/1931
9/21--93/1955, 73/1931
9/22--93/1937, 69/1937
9/23--92/1960, 72/1937


9/20--99/1954, 75/1980
9/21--95/1956, 76/1980
9/22--95/1956, 73/1988
9/23--92/1910, 73/1986


9/20--97/1954, 71/2005
9/21--97/1955, 69/1964
9/22--95/1955, 71/2005
9/23--92/1948, 69/1984


9/20--95/1954, 71/1965
9/21--94/1955, 72/1980
9/22--95/1956, 71/2005
9/23--92/1897, 70/2010


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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