Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281714
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A loosely organized band of showers and embedded scattered
thunderstorms continued during the predawn hours behind a cold
front which was moving southeast across the area. As of 3 AM, the
front stretched from Rolla to Branson. Limited instability has
kept updrafts well below severe limits. Temperatures behind the
front had fallen into the middle and upper 50s across southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri. Temperatures ahead of the front
were still in the middle 60s across south-central Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

This band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist as it
continues to shifts east across the area early this morning.
Activity should push out of south-central Missouri by late morning
as an upper level trough and jet support move east of the area.
Skies should clear relatively quickly for a time this morning.
However, model cross sections indicate that high clouds will be
quick to push back into the area this afternoon. High temperatures
today will be 10-15 degrees cooler than those of Monday with highs
in the middle to upper 60s.

Skies will then clear tonight with high pressure beginning to build
into the region from the northwest. This will result in chilly
conditions with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

That high will then settle across the area from Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Clear skies and light winds are expected for
Wednesday with high temperatures again pretty close to normal. We
will then have to watch for patchy frost potential Wednesday night
across the eastern Ozarks. MOS guidance has low temperatures
dipping into the 36-39 degree range with light winds. The one fly
in the ointment may be an increase in mid level clouds late
Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance approaches from the
northwest. We have elected to keep the mention of frost out for
now but will pass this concern onto incoming shifts.

That upper level short wave trough will then slide southeast
across the area on Thursday. While this wave will have little
moisture to work with, it will be digging in nature. We may
therefore have enough lift to squeeze out some sprinkles or very
light rain showers.

Meanwhile, another cold front associated with that wave will push
across the area on Thursday. The airmass behind this front will be
rather chilly in nature as a 1035 mb (or slightly stronger) high
plunges south into the western Great Lakes. A frost and/or freeze
therefore appears increasingly likely for this weekend...
especially across the eastern Ozarks. We will continue hit this
threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook suite of products.
Daytime temperatures on Saturday look rather chilly with highs
remaining in the 50s.

An upper level trough will then emerge across the Rockies late this
weekend with medium range models then bringing this energy out into
the Plains early next week. While there are differences amongst the
models regarding the overall structure of the trough, pretty much
all global models paint a pretty good chance for widespread
precipitation somewhere in the later Monday into Tuesday time frame.
Temperatures late this weekend and early next week should return to
near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are forecast over southwestern Missouri Airfields for
the duration of the TAF forecast period. A broad area of high
pressure centered over the Northern Plains will continue to push
southeastward over the area...bringing cooler weather and clear to
partly cloudy skies to the area through Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Colucci






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