000
FXUS63 KSGF 071638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

We have increased expected afternoon highs 2-4 degrees along and
north of Interstate 44. We have also lowered dew points and
relative humidities which will result in an elevated fire weather
risk into early this evening along and north of Interstate 44.

Inspection of regional 12 UTC RAOBs and short term model guidance
indicate that lower to middle 60s are quite achievable today along
and north of Interstate 44...even with mixing heights only around
or just above 900 mb. If we mix any higher than that, temperatures
may still be too low.

Dew points will be a tug of war. While surface dew points in the
lower to middle 30s are trying to advect north into the Ozarks,
regional RAOBs indicate a very dry air mass right off the surface.
To complicate matters, melting snow across far southern Missouri
will also come into play. Overall, we decided to lower afternoon
dew points into the upper 20s to middle 30s range...with the
highest values west of Interstate 49 and where there is melting
snow. This lowering of dew points along with the warmer
temperatures will result in afternoon relative humidities ranging
from around 25 percent in the Lake of the Ozarks region...into the
middle to perhaps upper 30 percent range across portions of far
southern Missouri. We do expect quite a bit of localized variation
in both dew points and relative humidities.

Updated public, fire weather, and Hazardous Weather Outlook
products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

It will be a fairly nice day with light southerly winds and mild
temperatures for this time of year. In fact most areas will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s despite some filtered sunshine with
high cloudiness increasing by the afternoon. A cold front will
begin to move into the area late tonight and will be located just
north of I-44 by early tomorrow morning. Some patchy drizzle or
light showers may develop post frontal by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

It will be much colder north of the front on Saturday mainly along
and north of I-44 while areas of south central Missouri will be
rather mild ahead of the front before the front moves through that
area. A cold rain will become likely by midday through the
afternoon hours for most of the area. Temperatures will fall into
the middle to upper 30s north of I-44 through out the day.

The models suggest just enough cold air aloft that the rain will mix if
not change over to wet snow along and north of I-44 tomorrow
afternoon. Surface temperatures will be just above freezing and
with a higher March sun angle in the sky...not expecting any
concerns on area roadways at this time. But could see some minor
and brief accumulations of wet snow on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces with a dusting to up to half an inch possible north of
I-44.

This area of cold rain and wet snow will clear out from west
to east during Saturday evening. Temperatures will fall into the
middle to upper 20s Saturday night as the clouds clear out. Any
moisture left on roadways could cause a few slick spots late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Temperatures will rebound nicely into the middle 50s on Sunday.
Gusty southwest winds will return on Monday up to 25 mph and much
warmer temperatures...middle to upper 60s for both Monday and
Tuesday. Will need to watch for possible elevated fire weather
conditions for Monday afternoon with relatively dry air and
dominant surface vegetation.

Above normal temperatures for early next week follow by another
cold front on Wednesday. The models have different outcomes for
the mid week system. The GFS is less bullish showing a zonal flow
and a weaker system moving across bringing a cold rain. The 00z
ECMWF run is more interesting with a strong upper level low
moving eastward just south of the Missouri Ozarks and a colder
profile aloft. The Euro would suggest a cold rain changing over
to wet snow with several inches of wet snow. At this time will
just go with a cold rain and discount the Euro. But worth a
mention and will keep an eye on trends with future runs.

A brief cool down for the middle of next week followed by a nice
warming trend by the end of next week with temps back into the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today with deteriorating flight
conditions by Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure will move off to the east today while a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This cold front will reach
the Joplin and Springfield terminals by day break Saturday. A wind
shift to the north and lowering ceilings will follow the frontal
passage Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster