000
FXUS63 KSGF 142307
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE MAKING FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING NEAR 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THIS HEAT IS BEING PUMPED INTO THE REGION BY A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...RETURNING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT AROUND 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR NEEDED FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BUT TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOST OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE OZARKS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE REMAIN WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

A MUCH STRONGER AND ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A ROUND OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST CAPE VALUE
APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS AND A
WEAKENING CAP SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
MAY BRING A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY
EVENING. SPC HAS THE OUR WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AREAS IN A DAY 6 OUTLOOK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR POSSIBLY STALL OUT NEAR THE
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS AREA FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FOR THE KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RELAX SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT WILL PICK RIGHT BACK UP AND BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THESE SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE IS
SCATTERED THERE IS QUESTIONS IF A TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND THEY COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
AFFECT THE TAF SITES EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
FOR TODAY...MAY 14TH.

LOCATION       RECORD HIGH

SPRINGFIELD    88 IN 1947
JOPLIN         92 IN 1947
WEST PLAINS    87 IN 1988
VICHY/ROLLA    89 IN 1899

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KARDELL
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...HATCH