000
FXUS63 KSGF 160904
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
404 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH TSTM CHANCES. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL OK
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE SE MO/NE AR BORDER
REGION BY 12Z FRI. HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION...BUT CAN SEE MORE RAIN COVERAGE TODAY/TONIGHT
VERSUS YESTERDAY GIVEN MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LOW
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. PROGGED LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME TSTMS GOING...POSSIBLY PERSISTING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MO WELL INTO TONIGHT.

WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT FOG AND SCATTERED LOW
STRATUS AT TIMES WHERE WE HAD RAINFALL EARLIER. OVERALL CLOUD
COVER AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE ONLY
LIMITED FOG CHANCES EARLY TODAY BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRI...BUT
COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRI...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWFA. OVERALL RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD SEEM TO POINT TO ONLY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION SAT WITH AN EML/CAP ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS
WOULD SEEN TO SUPPORT ONLY SPARSE CONVECTION CHANCES AT BEST.

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE ROCKIES SAT WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO TO AREAS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO...DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO STRONG CAPPING. IN ANY
CASE...CONVECTION (IF IT DEVELOPS) SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE WEST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT AND DRY LINE EDGE EAST INTO EASTERN KS AND
CENTRAL OK BY LATE SUNDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE SFC FEATURES AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES NEARBY. GFS PROGGED SOUNDING FOR OUR WESTERN CWFA ARE A
BIT DRIER BY THIS TIME...AND EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID 80S RELATIVELY DRY PROGGED SOUNDINGS BELOW 600MB MAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIALLY FIRE WITH STILL CONSIDERABLE
MLCIN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BUT WITH TIME SUNDAY
EVENING A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SE KS INTO WESTERN
MO LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TAKING PROGGED SOUNDINGS
AT FACE VALUE WOULD INDICATE THAT SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WOULD BE
ELEVATED...AND MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL THREAT AND MAYBE A
WIND THREAT IF A COLD POOL COULD BE GENERATED.

MON AND MON NIGHT LOOK ACTIVE...BUT TRYING TO GUESS ABOUT
MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS DIFFICULT
(SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IS BAD ENOUGH!). OVERALL...WE WILL SEE THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS AND SFC FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
POSSIBLE STORM RESTRENGTHENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODERATE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS/SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL BE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN
SW FLOW ALOFT AND A SIMILARLY ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY...STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO A LINE MON EVENING INTO TUE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALSO A CONCERN.

WED LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER IF THE TIMING OF GENERAL
GLOBAL MODELS IS CORRECT...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLOWING DOWN OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL AND BLOCKY OVER NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR AREA AERODROMES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATES A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR
THE TIME BEING...WITH JUST A FEW...ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE
LANDSCAPE. THIS LULL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BREAKS IN A MID LEVEL OVERCAST MAY PROVED
TO INCITE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THIS
AT BBG AND WILL BE INCLUDING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAY EVEN SEE LIFR AS WELL GIVEN A PREFERRED UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...GAGAN