000
FXUS63 KSGF 091705
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1105 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)

It`s been quite the weekend regarding wintry weather. Following a
6 to 10 inch snowfall across southern Missouri, freezing drizzle
spread over the entire region, causing a glaze of ice to
accumulate on exposed surfaces, including roadways. Probably one
of the better freezing drizzle events we`ve had in several years
as far as causing impact to motorists.

More wintry weather will occur as early as this afternoon and
tonight. A nice disturbance was tracking over the central Rockies
this morning, and will approach the Ozarks this afternoon.

Global models all agree on a belt of lift to overspread areas
roughly along and south of a Columbus Kansas to Rolla Missouri
line. This will force minor snow accumulations over this region
this afternoon and tonight. Accumulations should remain at two
inches or less, since only Pacific based moisture will be
available to this disturbance.

With decent agreement shown by the global models, we took an even
blend between the Canadian, GFS, and the ECMWF to calculate
accumulation amounts. Roughly a 12:1 ratio was used given the low
level temps expected.

This belt of snow will completely exit the Ozarks Region early
Tuesday morning, setting the stage for cold and dry weather from
Tuesday through Thursday night.

Split flow evolves once again during the Tuesday through Thursday
night period. The Ozarks Region will be influenced more by the
northern stream, which offers cold northwest flow through most of
the week. Look for temperatures to warm into the lower 30s on an
afternoon basis, with overnight lows falling into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)

Due to the ECMWF`s superior performance with it`s winter time mass
fields, the Friday through Sunday forecast is highly leaned in
it`s favor.

The Euro suggests that a cutoff Baja upper low will eject toward
the region late in the week. This feature will tap into a Gulf
moisture feed and force a wintry mix of precipitation across the
Ozarks starting Friday.

Taking a glance at low level thermal fields, an ECMWF perfect prog
would provide a mix of snow, sleet, and liquid rain across the
Ozarks. Therefore we have a mention of all three precipitation
types in for the Friday and Friday night time frame. Hopefully we
will become a little better detailed with these types as the week
progresses, but for now we won`t get too cute with it.

For Saturday and Sunday, we remain in cyclonic flow in the upper
levels, which could promote small scale disturbances to set off
either freezing drizzle or light snow through the rest of the
weekend.

One thing is for sure, it`s going to get cold again Saturday and
Sunday, as another shot of Canadian air spread through southern
Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Mid level cloud cover beginning to move back into the western CWA
with an upper level disturbance moving into the area. Starting to
see some cloud enhancements along with radar returns and should
begin to see snow develop during the afternoon hours in the
southwest CWA and spread northeast through the afternoon/evening
hours. Could see some IFR conditions develop with the
snowfall...especially at SGF/JLN where the main band is expected
to set up. This quick moving system should exit the area by 06-09z
with clearing sky behind it by sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Tuesday FOR MOZ070-071-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Tuesday FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg