Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 181150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Cloud cover remains over the region with IFR ceilings along the
plateau affecting KSGF. Stratus with embedded occasional thunder
storms will affect area terminals through this morning. The
stratus and rain effectively dissipated the IFR fog in the KBBG
aerodrome, however will need to watch the terminal for recurring
fog as the rain shifts out of the region. Generally slowly
improving conditions are expected into the afternoon and evening.
A return of IFR visibilities in fog is anticipated for Friday
morning as an upper level ridge moves overhead.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     091-092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








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