Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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559
FXUS63 KSGF 291714
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Some drier air will filter in behind the cold front today, as
surface dewpoints only expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s by
this afternoon. Despite highs in the middle 80s, the drier air will
keep humidities down. Most areas will remain dry, although cannot
rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorms over far southwest
Missouri.

This lull will continue through much of tonight as well. However,
low level flow does strengthen over the Plains, with a modest 30
knot low level jet developing over Oklahoma. This may spawn some
convection that could drift into portions of southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri late tonight. However, probabilities will be
low of this occurring. Otherwise, it will be a comfortable night
with lows dropping into the lower 60s, with some upper 50s
possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Southerly low level flow returns on Monday, albeit rather weak.
Instabilities and shear look rather weak as well, but with shortwave
poised to track into the area would expect scattered convection
to once again. Biggest question is how much activity will be
around during the morning hours, of the deterministic models, NAM
the most robust, while GFS shows the potential for a few early
morning showers/storms they dissipate rather quickly then re-
develop during the afternoon hours. Given these scenarios will
keep mid range probabilities in for the morning hours.

As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, a stronger shortwave trough
will traverse the Northern Plains. This will push a cold front
towards the area, with the medium range models pushing it through
southern Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A southerly
flow will continue out ahead of this front with a series of
shortwave waves rotating across the area. This will keep periodic
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through at least the first
part of Thursday. Cannot rule out a few severe storms during this
period, but at this point chances look rather low. Cooler and
drier air moves in behind the front with quiet weather expected
from Thursday night right into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR should prevail through the next 24 hours...with light and
variable winds early becoming southerly overnight. There will be
an outside chance for a thunderstorm at JLN late tonight, though
chances appear too low at this time to include in the TAF.

More widespread thunderstorm activity will likely affect the
terminal areas on Monday, though the bulk of the activity will
likely occur just beyond the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Boxell



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