Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 140833
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
233 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

No major changes to the forecast this morning. As of 2 AM, the
freezing line stretched from just north of Neosho to Fair Grove to
just north of Salem. A slight strengthening of an inverted trough
over Arkansas and southern Missouri has led to very light north
winds for Springfield and points west; this may lead to very
slight southward movement of the freezing line through sunrise,
but major adjustments are not expected.

North of the freezing line, an area of showers will continue to
move east toward the STL area early this morning, with a more
steady rain across southern Missouri (where temps are above
freezing). Areas of fog and drizzle will continue this morning as
well.

Precipitation will be relatively light during the day today,
especially north of I-44. This will lead to limited additional ice
accretion through the day today. In addition, temperatures may
bump just above freezing for a time this afternoon. However,
readings are expected to fall back to 31-32 degrees this evening
north of I-44 as an additional area of precipitation moves
northeast into the region. This is expected to result in a quarter
to third of an inch of (additional) ice accretion to areas from
Pittsburg Kansas to Rolla through Sunday morning.

With additional ice expected, the Ice Storm Warning will be
allowed to continue unchanged for now. The southern-most tier or
so of counties in the warning will only see up to a tenth of an
inch of additional freezing rain, and even then, mostly across the
northern portion of these counties. Impacts across this area
(including Joplin/Springfield/Mountain Grove) should be minor. This
portion of the Warning will expire at 6 PM tonight, while the
northern portion will go through mid day Sunday.

Along with the ice potential, fog will continue across southern
Missouri into the morning today, and a Dense Fog Advisory
continues for areas south of Highway 60 through 8 AM.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The nearly stationary closed low currently located off the coast
of Southern California will finally lift northeast toward the area
Sunday into Monday, bringing warmer temperatures, rain and a few
thunderstorms to the region. Temperatures on Sunday will warm
above freezing by afternoon, with parts of far southwestern
Missouri reaching the low 50s. Highs on Monday are then expected
to reach the upper 50s and low 60s.

Rain chances will end Monday night as a front moves through the
area. This front will knock temps back to around average for
Tuesday (40s), before highs recover into the 50s and 60s for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Southwest flow will develop over a good portion of the nation`s
midsection to end the workweek, bringing with it additional
chances for showers and above average temperatures Friday into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

LIFR ceilings remain in place across the area late this evening
and will persist across the area through the entire TAF period.
Fog has also developed across the region. The visibility will
generally be 1 to 2 mile at KJLN and KSGF but could drop to less
than a mile at times. KBBG has had dense fog occur all evening
and this will continue through the overnight hours and into at
least Saturday morning.

An area of rain is currently moving across the region late this
evening and will end from west to east Saturday morning. As the
low stratus deck remains over the area fog, mist, and drizzle will
continue to occur through the day Saturday. Additional rain is
then expected to develop to the west and start to spread back
into the area Saturday evening.

Temperatures are above freezing at KBBG and are expected to
remain above freezing for the entire forecast period resulting in rain
and drizzle occurring.

KJLN is currently below freezing and will remain so through
Saturday morning before warming above freezing Saturday
afternoon. Therefore, freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will
occur until temperatures warm above Freezing Saturday afternoon
and remain above freezing through the rest of the TAF period.

KSGF is currently above freezing and though much of the period
should be the cause. The freezing line will not move much
overnight, but its not that far north of the KSGF site. In a
couple hours light northerly winds are expected to develop and its
possible the freezing line sags slightly back to the south just to
KSGF. If this can occur a brief period of of light freezing rain
or freezing drizzle could be possible but still questions if this
can occur and would be brief.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ095>097-
     101>106.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ082-083-088-
     090>094-098.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ101.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise


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