Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Showers and thunderstorms were currently ongoing across
northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri in proximity to the
cold front. This activity is expected to move south this evening
as the cold front makes its way to the southeast and into the
Ozark region late this afternoon into this evening.

Low level moisture, a strong low level jet, frontal lift and some
instability will work to bring the potential for strong to severe
storms, however the timing of the frontal passage for the region
during the overnight hours may act to limit the severe potential.
Still, there is a concern for damaging winds along the front and
associated with and down bursts that may occur. Some isolated hail
to the size of quarters may also be possible with the strongest
storms as the freezing level will be fairly low.

Cool fall high pressure will be filtering into the region behind
the cold front through the day Sunday. Despite mostly sunny skies
afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

With cold high pressure over the region, overnight temperatures
will fall into the lower 40s to upper 30s under clear skies.

Sprawling high pressure will then linger over the eastern half of
the country through the end of the week as upper level flow
remains northwesterly. With sunny skies expected through the week
a slow warming trend will occur with high by Friday in the middle
70s. The next chance of rain may come late next weekend or into
the following week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Rather complex weather situation during the first 12 hours of the
forecast period. Surface front currently extends from northern
Missouri into southwestern Kansas. Convection has fired all along
the front with several storms becoming severe.

Front is now on the move with the convection forecast to begin
moving into the area in the next 1-2 hours and begin affecting the
terminal sites between 03-06z. Ceilings and visibilities should
drop to MVFR with occasional IFR as the surface front makes its
way through the area. Winds will remain gusty overnight veering
from a southerly to a northwesterly direction with the frontal

Conditions should begin to improve after 12z with VFR conditions
expected at the terminal sites after 18z.




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