Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
209 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...Flood Potential Friday and Friday Night...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The front that dropped across the area today will stall just to
our south tonight and Friday while a series of upper level
disturbances track east.

Showers across southern Missouri will tempoarily diminish this
evening. However showers and some thunder will develop overnight
north of the frontal boundary as a modest low level jet and
isentropic upglide develop.

Waves of showers with embedded thunderstorms will impact the
region Friday and Friday night with the heaviest rainfall
concentrated across far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern
Kansas. With recent rains the ground is nearly saturated and it
won`t take too much more rain to result in flooding concerns.

Total storm rainfall including Thursday through Saturday will
generally range from 2 to 4 inches with the highest amounts across
far southern Missouri where localized amounts up to 5 inches
could occur. This excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding
as well as river flooding. Basins of most concern include the
Spring, Elk, James, While, Big Piney and Eleven Point.

The Flood Watch has expanded farther east to include all of
far southern Missouri.

Deeper and stronger convection will be possible Friday along the
Arkansas border closer to the front and axis of higher instbility.
The risk of severe storms is low but will have to monitor for any
potential northwward progress of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A showery and chilly day is in store Saturday as the upper low
tracks across the region. Highs will likely not get out of the 40s
in most areas.

Dry weather and a warming trend will return by Sunday into next
week. More active weather could again return later next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor for poor flight conditions over the next 24 hours.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the airports at
times, particularly late tonight and into tomorrow.

Two to four inches of rain is expected as a storm system
approaches from the west.

Surface winds will be out of the north as a frontal system becomes
stationary over northern Arkansas.


MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning for

KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning for



LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.