Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 140549
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Update to Aviation for 6Z TAFs...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Heaviest freezing rain axis has shifted a bit northward from this
morning where 0.20 to around 0.50" of ice accretion occurred
roughly along the I-44 corridor. Heaviest freezing rain as of 2 pm
was located from near Greenfield to the Lake of the Ozarks region.
The freezing line has not moved too much today and was located
along or just south of the I-44 corridor. Temperatures across the
far southwest corner of Missouri had warmed into the 33 to 35
degree range. Main forecast focus will remain with the movement of
the surface freezing line and resultant precipitation type and
amount through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

For tonight, most of the models want to continue warming the
temperatures, with the GFS remaining the most bullish. Like the
ECMWF surface temperature profile the best which keeps mid to
upper 20s in west central to central MO...the freezing line at or
around the I-44 corridor and some mid 30s along and south of US
60. Because of some possible meandering of the freezing line, do
not plan on removing any counties from the current configuration
of the Ice Storm warning, even though a couple of counties could
be removed based specifically on our going surface temperature
forecast. If this freezing line moves just slightly further
southward, then these southern counties would also be under the
gun with additional rainfall tonight. Current wave of
precipitation over our northern CWA will continue this evening as
freezing rain. An additional wave of precipitation will move into
the area overnight, affecting both central and southern Missouri,
again with freezing rain north of the freezing line and rain south
of the freezing line.

Heading into Saturday, the precipitation will continue to push
from southwest to northeast across the area, with the freezing
line gradually shifting northwestward during the day. The heaviest
amount of icing will be from around Bourbon county KS into west
central and central Missouri, where another half inch to 0.60" of
ice will be possible. By Saturday night, all but the far northwest
to northern part of the CWA should be at freezing or above, with
rain for most areas and freezing rain continuing for the small
area remaining below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Temperatures should eventually warm above freezing for the entire
area by midday Sunday with highs from the upper 30s to mid 50s.
Most of the remaining precipitation will affect central MO during
the day on Sunday, surging north with the warmer air. The main
upper low will begin lifting northeast out of the southern Rockies
and into the southern high plains by late in the day. There will
likely be a lull in the precipitation across much of southern
Missouri during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.

By late Sunday night, energy from the upper low will begin to move
into the area, along with a ribbon of higher dewpoints and
instability. Will likely see some embedded thunderstorms with the
shower activity, which will likely linger through the day Monday
into possibly Monday night.

Total storm rainfall from an inch to 1.75 inches (in addition to
the heavy precipitation from today) is expected with this storm
system, which may cause some limited flooding potential and plan
on adding this back to the EHWO risks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

LIFR ceilings remain in place across the area late this evening
and will persist across the area through the entire TAF period.
Fog has also developed across the region. The visibility will
generally be 1 to 2 mile at KJLN and KSGF but could drop to less
than a mile at times. KBBG has had dense fog occur all evening
and this will continue through the overnight hours and into at
least Saturday morning.

An area of rain is currently moving across the region late this
evening and will end from west to east Saturday morning. As the
low stratus deck remains over the area fog, mist, and drizzle will
continue to occur through the day Saturday. Additional rain is
then expected to develop to the west and start to spread back
into the area Saturday evening.

Temperatures are above freezing at KBBG and are expected to
remain above freezing for the entire forecast period resulting in rain
and drizzle occurring.

KJLN is currently below freezing and will remain so through
Saturday morning before warming above freezing Saturday
afternoon. Therefore, freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will
occur until temperatures warm above Freezing Saturday afternoon
and remain above freezing through the rest of the TAF period.

KSGF is currently above freezing and though much of the period
should be the cause. The freezing line will not move much
overnight, but its not that far north of the KSGF site. In a
couple hours light northerly winds are expected to develop and its
possible the freezing line sags slightly back to the south just to
KSGF. If this can occur a breif period of of light freezing rain
or freezing drizzle could be possible but still questions if this
can occur and would be brief.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ095>097-
     101>106.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for MOZ082-083-088-
     090>094-098.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ101.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise



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