Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
537 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Seasonably mild day was witnessed across the Ozarks as surface
high pressure continues to settle into the region. Main forecast
challenge tonight will be overnight lows given clear skies, light
winds but neutral temperature advection. Anticipate the lower end
of the guidance...especially over the eastern CWA where patchy
frost is expected.

More of the same is then expected on Tuesday with temperatures a
tad warmer as the axis of the high shifts slightly southeast and
heights start to slowly climb.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Medium range models advertise multiple ripples in the northwest
flow through midweek however low level moisture to remain lacking
due to the surface high over the southeast.

Temperatures as a result will undergo a slow warming trend through
the week with the pattern entering into a more active state late
in the work week.

Models at this time are in general agreement in digging a long
wave trough over the western US...though differences exist in how
the northern and southern streams are handling energy being kicked
out ahead of the main trough. Best chances for rain continue to
be Saturday night into Sunday...though scattered thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out at this point on Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure will
drift across the area and we will have southerly winds develop at
the TAF sites after midnight. Could see some gusts up to 20 kts at
JLN during the afternoon Tuesday.




SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.