Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281700
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Temperatures are slightly warmer this morning than 24 hours ago.
Temperature values ranged from the middle 50s to the lower 60s
early this morning. Today will be slightly cooler than yesterday
as a cold front, now entering into northern Missouri, will
continue to move into our region.

Aloft, an upper level low is dropping southward from the Great
Lakes Region. This low should move just to our east over the
Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This will keep our area in a
rather cool northwesterly flow through the short term.
Temperatures tonight will once again drop into the upper 40s to
near 50 across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper level low is forecast to camp across the eastern United
States through much of this week and into the weekend. That
aforementioned dry/mild northwesterly flow will certainly linger
into a good chunk of the long term. The upper low/trough will
slowly begin to push north and eastward by later this weekend and
early next week. This should allow for a weak upper level ridge to
build into the region, which should begin a gradual warming trend.

Rain chances over the next seven days look low at this juncture.
The best shot will likely be sometime midweek next week as a
strong cold frontal boundary and parent upper level trough moves
eastward into our area. The globals disagree on the exact timing
and impacts with this system. GFS looks slower and rainier,
however, ECMWF is more progressive (slightly delayed). The ECMWF timing
and trough orientation may signal a stronger storm potential.
Confidence is low regarding either solution at the moment,
however, it does appear toward the end of this cycle we`ll be in
for another cool down.

Temperatures again should be slightly below average through this
week with a gradual warming trend to around or slightly above
average later on in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Large upper low over northern Indiana will continue to slowly
drift south. A surface cold front has pushed through today, mainly
changing the wind direction and allowing for some cold air
advection to take place. Aviation-wise, we should continue with
VFR conditions through the period and steady/gusty northerly winds
diminishing after sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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