Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240830
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
330 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A surface ridge axis was located over the Missouri Ozarks during
the predawn hours. This has allowed for good radiational cooling
with most areas cooling into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Winds will begin to increase out of the south today as that ridge
axis slides to our east. Temperatures will respond nicely with
highs warming into the middle to upper 70s. While there will be
some high level clouds that drift over at times, we are looking at
a mostly sunny day over most locations.

Clouds will begin to increase tonight as an upper level trough
moves across the central Rockies. As this happens, a low level
jet stream will strengthen and veer into southwestern Missouri.
While there will be decent lift owing to isentropic upglide,
moisture quality looks poor at this time. Thus, we have kept the
forecast dry for now. This will be something for incoming shifts
to keep tabs on. Lows tonight will be warmer due to the increasing
clouds and a continued south to southeast wind.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Surface low pressure will strengthen across the central Plains on
Tuesday as that upper level trough emerges from the Rockies. Low
level pressure gradients will quickly tighten with a windy day on
tap. Gusts in the 30-40 mph range appear quite likely.

Those south to southeast winds will begin to transport Gulf of
Mexico moisture back up towards the Missouri Ozarks during the day
on Tuesday. However, the presence of an elevated mixed layer (EML)
should preclude any shower or thunderstorm development during the
day. Temperatures on Tuesday look quite balmy with highs in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Models continue to struggle with the eventual track of that
surface low Tuesday night. Generally speaking, we will likely see
an eastward moving cold front extend from northern Missouri into
eastern Kansas and then central Oklahoma during the late evening
hours. There may be several surface waves along this front with
the main low tracking northeast towards the Corn Belt.

Convergence along this front and lift/cooling aloft associated
with the approaching upper level trough should result in
convective initiation across eastern Kansas and northeastern
Oklahoma around or just after sunset. Moderate amounts of
instability and good deep layer shear will support a threat for
strong to severe storms from about mid-evening into the overnight
period across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Convective mode remains a tough call. At this time, there is more
supporting evidence for upscale growth into a squall line or line
segments given the amount of lift/forcing that will be present.
Additionally, wind fields will make it difficult for any discrete
cells to really move off of the forcing. This is not to say that
supercell structures or a mixed mode event will not occur. At this
point however, we are leaning towards a more linear mode.

With that being said, damaging wind gusts will be the primary
potential hazard. The orientation of the front does not bode well
for mesovortex potential given low level shear vectors orientated
towards the northeast (poor line-normal component). However, any
line segments which can pivot and bow towards the east or
northeast would have the potential for mesovortices.

The severe threat is then expected to persist into Wednesday as
that front slowly moves east across the Missouri Ozarks. We are
likely looking at a line of storms associated with this front with
an attendant potential for damaging straight line winds. At this
time, it looks like the main severe threat for Wednesday will be
along and east of the U.S. 65 corridor.

With streams and rivers running high across the area, we will
have to watch the hydro situation. We are generally looking at
rainfall amounts in the 0.75" to 1.50" range. If amounts get any
higher than that, we could again see a localized flooding threat
materialize.

Thursday then looks dry and cooler before a very active end to
the week. An upper level jet will dive southeast into the Red
River region and carve out a broad trough over much of the western
and central United States. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will return from Thursday night into Friday as an apparent over-
running situation begins to set up with a developing and returning
warm front.

Global models then show general agreement in the large scale upper
level flow becoming southwesterly this weekend with an amplifying
trough over the Rockies. This looks like a very wet pattern with
concerns for more flooding continuing to increase. There also
remains the potential for severe storms next weekend as at least
portions of the Missouri Ozarks become established in the warm
sector of an eventual low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Aviators flying into the Ozarks will find VFR conditions through
the overnight hours and through the day Monday. Overnight surface
winds will be calm to light and variable. Winds will become
southerly around sunrise from 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch


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