Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 012339
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

We have increased PoPs into the 30-40% range for the late evening
and overnight period generally along and just north of the I-44
corridor. A mid-level frontogenetic zone (centered around 750 mb)
will be the primary focus for the shower activity. Amounts will be
very light...generally less than 0.05".

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level ridge will build east across the plains during the
middle of the week then over the region late in the week into
early next weekend. This will allow a warming trend to occur as
highs return to the lower 70s on Wednesday, with temperatures
warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Saturday.

An upper level low will then track east across the southwestern
U.S then into the plains late this weekend into early next week.
As this system approaches from the west, thunderstorm chances
will return to the area late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A weak upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings and a
few showers to the region overnight. Confidence is high that MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight with ceilings approaching IFR by
sunrise.

Confidence was then high enough to include prevailing IFR around
Springfield for a few hours. Confidence was slightly lower at
Joplin, so we include a mention of IFR in a TEMPO group. At this
point, confidence was too low at Branson to insert an IFR mention.

Ceilings will then slowly improve later Monday morning although
MVFR may hang on for much of the day.

Winds through Monday will remain out of the northwest generally
below 9 knots.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann



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