Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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964
FXUS63 KSGF 040543
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Rain will gradually develop and increase from the south into this
evening as the lower atmospheric column moistens in advance of an
approaching mid level trough and isentropic upglide develops.
Expect widespread light rain overnight with amounts around a
quarter of an inch or less. A few snow flakes mixed with the rain
cannot be ruled out overnight across the eastern Ozarks given the
lower wet bulb temperatures. However no accumulation or impacts
are expected as temperatures remain above freezing.

The rain will come to and end from the west Sunday as the mid
level trough makes its way across the region and a weak front
pushes across the area. Cloud cover will linger much of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

The upper level low across northwest Mexico will begin to push
eastward across the Rio Grande Valley late Sunday and into Monday
before opening up into a shortwave. At the surface, a weak low
pressure system will develop across the western Gulf of Mexico and
move northeastward into central Kentucky by noon on Tuesday.
Additional light rain showers will be possible late Monday and
into Tuesday as the low slides to our southeast. The
north/northeast flow will be moderated by the lack of a decent
snowpack upstream, so thermals will be too warm for anything
frozen.

As we progress into Wednesday, a sharp Arctic front will blast
through the region. Models have come into better agreement
regarding the light snow potential on Wednesday as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the region. QPF values appear to be
quite low for now, though some light accumulation is looking
better with each new model run.

Globals are no doubt pretty cold in the long range and beyond. GFS
has trended even colder and match the ECMWF pretty well at this
point for late next week. ECMWF continues to funnel well below
average temperatures into our region through next weekend. In
fact, it shows many days of below freezing temperatures for our
area. GFS isn`t far off with the warmest temperatures being next
Saturday, and those are only around 40 degrees at best.
Regardless, confidence is there for a below average early to mid
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

IFR conditions are continuing to develop along and south of US 60
as light rain continues across the region...with scattered LIFR in
the lakes region along the MO-AR border. These IFR conditions...
especially ceilings...are expected to encompass the entire area by
09z and persist into the late morning hours.

As the upper wave transits the area on Sunday...expect conditions
to improve to VFR from west to east after 19z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Gaede



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