Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A very slow moving front will continue to sag into the area today
and tonight. By this evening, this front will be roughly near Fort
Scott, Kansas to the Lake of the Ozarks area. There will be a
chance for a few showers or storms near that boundary with the
best potential along and north of I-44 today and tonight. Another
ripple in the mid level stream flow will interact with the
boundary tonight and will develop a complex or cluster of
convection across southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri. This area is also highlighted in a slight risk for
strong to severe storms late this afternoon into this evening with
hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph being the main threats.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The front continues to hang out across our northwest area of the
Ozarks with additional chances for shower and storms Friday
through the weekend. Can not rule out a strong storm or two but
the main threats will be lightning and heavy downpours. At this
time, it doesn`t appear heavy rainfall or any flooding will be a
concern. Temperatures will be knocked down with the extra cloud
cover and convection around with highs in the middle 80s.

Isolated to widely scattered rain and thunderstorm chances will
continue into early and middle of next week. Abundant moisture
will continue to be across the area with weak disturbances as
well. This daily chance of convection will mainly be in the
afternoon and evening with daytime heating. It doesn`t appear any
one day will be a wash out for early next week but scattered rain
chances will remain. Temperatures look to be around seasonable
average as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The main surface boundary will remain
north of the TAF sites through the period, which will be the focus
for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Cannot rule out some
isolated storms further south this afternoon, but confidence no high
enough to include in forecasts. Otherwise, better chances for
convection will be late tonight/Friday morning as front sags
slowly southward. Consensus of models do show activity to remain
across central Missouri, but will include a prob30 after 12Z group
given closer proximity of front. VFR conditions expected through
the period, with the only IFR/MVFR flight conditions expected
would be any any storms that might impact the terminals.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.