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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281949
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

What fabulous conditions for late July. Temperatures ranged from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s, under sunny skies and light
northerly breezes.

This cool and dry airmass will lead to chilly temperatures tonight
with lows in the 50s. West Plains and Vichy`s record lows could be in
jeopardy tonight. See the climate section below.

For Tuesday an identical day is expected, with highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s. No precipitation is expected until late Tuesday
night. These precipitation chances are limited to far southeast
Kansas and far southwest Missouri as an area of rainfall
approaches from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)

Wednesday`s precipitation is more likely to occur along and
southwest of a line from Girard Kansas to Bull Shoals Lake. There
is a chance that Springfield could get clipped by the northern
edge of this rainfall, but chances are better down toward Branson.

Wednesday`s precipitation will cause temperatures to remain in the
70s for many locations. Perhaps the warmest readings on Wednesday
will occur in central Missouri, an area that should not receive
any rain.

For Thursday and Friday, we decreased rain chances as there
remains no identifiable signal for organized lift. Temperatures
should stay cool, with highs in the lower 80s.

We should experience a gradual warm up into the weekend with
afternoon highs reaching the middle 80s on Saturday and Sunday.

The latest ECMWF suggests that the southeast Canadian high will
finally shift off over the Atlantic Ocean, which will allow
southerly flow to return to the Ozarks eventually. There does not appear
to be a signal for oppressive heat anytime soon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Surface high pressure building southward through the plains will
continue to bring VFR conditions to the terminals through 18Z
Tuesday along with light winds. Visible satellite imagery at 17Z was
showing a scattered to broken cumulus field across much of Missouri
with the exception of the southwest quarter of the state. This field
will likely produce a scattered deck at KSGF and KBBG this afternoon
at around 4k feet and then dissipate early this evening. Otherwise, A few
mid and high level clouds will make their way into southwest
Missouri after 15Z Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Tuesday Morning (7/29)
              Forecast  Record
Springfield     58      52 (1965)
Joplin          59      57 (1994)
West Plains     56      55 (1994)
Vichy           55      56 (1981)


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding
CLIMATE...GRIFFIN