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000
FXUS63 KSGF 031734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Dense fog was developing for the third night in a row across
portions of the forecast area and will likely expand across much
of southern Missouri during the remainder of the overnight hours.
Temperatures across the area remain in the mid to upper 40s and
not much change is expected for the remainder of the night.

Difficult upcoming forecast as a strong cold front pushes through
the area and several waves of upper level energy associated with a
strong upper level jet will interact with increasing moisture and
the deepening cold air mass to produce a variety of winter weather
Thursday, Friday and again on Sunday. The biggest challenge here
will be with precipitation type on Thursday into Thursday evening
as the cold air mass will initially be shallow, but should deepen
throughout the day and spread southeast, eventually changing all
precipitation to snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

The fog is expected to expand across much of southern Missouri
with areas of dense fog with visibilities of a half mile or less
expected. This should linger into mid morning on Tuesday before
dissipating.

Low level moisture advection will continue, mainly over the
eastern Ozarks and into the Tennessee and Ohio valley region
tonight ahead of the cold front which make it`s way into the far
northwest CWA by 12z Wed. Some patchy areas of drizzle or a brief
light shower will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning,
but not expecting any measurable precipitation at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

The surface cold front will push through the entire CWA during the
day Wednesday with temperatures cooling into the upper 30s over
southeast Kansas to around 60 degrees in the vicinity of the front
by 23z Wed. Not expecting any measurable precipitation with the
frontal passage.

The surface freezing line will likely make it to a Kimberling City
to Salem line during the Wednesday night timeframe, but should
remain above freezing southeast of this line. Again, measurable
precipitation is not expected Wednesday night.

By Thursday morning, deep moisture and very strong lift will push
into the area as a strong upper level jet develops across the
Plains into the upper and mid Mississippi valley region. The 850
mb front will also be pushing through the area. Precipitation is
expected to quickly develop Thursday morning and may initially
begin as a band of freezing rain along the I-44 corridor with a
sleet/snow mix possible north of this band and rain across south
central Missouri. As the morning progresses, the cold air will
deepen from northwest to southeast and precipitation type will
change to all snow from extreme southeast Kansas into west central
Missouri, a mix of snow and sleet where partial melting occurs
along the interstate 44 corridor, and still rainfall over south
central Missouri.

There may be another band of freezing rain over south central
Missouri that develops during the afternoon as the surface
temperatures fall below freezing, but the deeper colder air lags
behind. By mid to late evening on Thursday, the cold air depth
should be sufficient for all snow over the entire CWA.

Another wave of upper level energy will begin to affect the area
late Thursday night through Friday and should bring additional
precipitation to the area, mainly along and south of the
Interstate 44 corridor. Snowfall amounts with these first couple
of waves are expected to roughly amount to 2 to 4 inches while the
best chance of ice is expected over a part of south central
Missouri, from around Branson to Salem where a tenth to two tenths
of an inch of ice will be possible.

It should be said that these forecast amounts are very preliminary
as we are still 2 to 4 days out and any change of thermal profiles
can significantly alter these totals and locations.

For now will continue to handle this system within our HWO and SPS
products along with a web briefing.

An arctic air mass will then build into the area Friday night into
Saturday and will likely see some single digit temperatures Friday
night, especially with a fresh snowpack. Wind chill values may dip
to around zero or slightly below.

With the main upper level trough still hanging out to the west,
the wintry precipitation will probably not be over just yet.

An area of low pressure in the western Gulf will begin to
strengthen and lift northeast along a frontal boundary in the
Tennessee and Ohio valley region Saturday night into Sunday. The
main upper level wave will then push through the area on Sunday
with additional wintry precipitation expected. At this time it
appears as if most of this will be in the form of light snow,
with the heaviest precipitation occurring south and east of our
CWA. The precipitation should lift out of the area Sunday night
with cold temperatures continuing into Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions this afternoon as
the stratus and fog dissipate. However stratus and fog with MVFR
to IFR conditions will develop again tonight. Expect IFR ceilings
to become prevalent overnight especially from Springfield and
Branson eastward where lower visibilities will also develop. A
gradual improvement in flight conditions will occur Wednesday
morning.

Southerly winds will increase this afternoon and continue into
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Marginal low level
wind shear will develop tonight. Winds will shift to the west
and northwest during the day Wednesday as the cold front pushes
across the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster