Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191207
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
707 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Widely scattered showers have developed during the predawn hours
west of U.S. 65. These showers have developed in an area of
isentropic upglide and weak elevated instability. We should
continue to see additional development across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri early this morning as instability increases and
that low level jet re-focuses. These developing showers and
thunderstorms will then shift northeast with time into central
Missouri from this morning into early this afternoon.

Meanwhile, a warm front will begin to lift northeast into the
Ozarks today. We should see an impressive temperature gradient
with highs expected to warm into the lower 80s along the I-49
corridor. In contrast, the eastern Ozarks will see highs in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

That front will then lift through the remainder of the Ozarks
tonight. The setup looks pretty good for a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the eastern Corn Belt and
northeastern Missouri as a low level jet stream once again
develops and noses into that region. Some of this activity could
glance central Missouri, however confidence is pretty low in this
occurring. We have therefore kept PoPs in the 20-30% range up
towards Rolla.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Monday then looks like a downright warm day as 850 mb temperatures
warm into the upper teens to near twenty Celsius (more typical of
May). This should promote high temperatures in the lower to middle
80s. Meanwhile, that front will begin to return south late in the
day. While the atmosphere will be rather unstable, we are just not
seeing enough forcing/lift to initiate convection during the
daytime hours.

Chances for thunderstorms are then expected to increase from
Monday night into Tuesday as that front continues to move south
into the Ozarks. Upper level short wave energy approaching from
the central Plains should induce isentropic upglide within an
unstable environment from late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
There may be sufficient effective deep layer shear and instability
for a limited hail threat over primarily the eastern Ozarks.
Thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon will then likely be
dictated by the position of that front and whether or not the
atmosphere can recover from morning convection.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will then be possible
from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, however confidence is
low as to whether or not this will occur as the eventual position
of that front will be key. Temperatures will be much cooler (but
still seasonable) during the midweek period.

That front will then return north through the Ozarks from
Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper level ridge temporarily
builds back over the region. We could see an additional shot at a
few showers and storms with that returning front. Milder
temperatures will also shift back into the Ozarks behind the
front.

The end of the week then continues to look active as that ridge
shifts off to the east and is replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft. Global models continue to depict a vigorous storm system
pushing out into the Plains from Thursday night into Friday. This
one will have to be watched for severe storm potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this
morning across southern Missouri. Given that coverage of
thunderstorms will be limited, we have opted to leave thunder out
of the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through
tonight.

Brisk and gusty southerly surface winds will develop by this
afternoon with breezy conditions continuing into tonight. Low
level wind shear conditions will also develop later this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann



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