Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
152 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Southerly winds will continue to bring a warm and moist airmass
into the region through this evening in into Saturday. A few
clouds will move across the region in response to the heating and
increasing moisture.

Overnight temperatures will only fall into the 60s to near 70 for
many locations. The breezy southerly winds will remain as upper
level southwesterly flow continues and a broad upper level trough
movies into the plains through the day Saturday.

Temperatures Saturday will climb to near record highs for some
locations as strong warm air and moisture advection continues
through the day in advance of the front.

Surface low pressure will move across the plains into Iowa as a
cold front is pushed across the plains and towards the Ozarks.
Showers and storms may begin to impact the region as early as
Saturday afternoon/evening for areas from Fort Scott to Warsaw.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The front itself is expected to push through the region Late
Saturday night through Sunday morning. THere remains the
potential for strong to severe storms with the main concern being
damaging straight line winds. Current indication are for a line of
storms to develop along or just post frontal and push through the
area, exiting southeast of the Ozarks by Midday Sunday.

Colder, more seasonable temperatures will filter in behind the
front with Sundays highs only around 60 degrees. Temperatures
through the rest of the week will see a very slow warming trend
with afternoon highs by the end of the week in the lower to
middle 70s.

Sprawling surface high pressure and northwesterly upper level
flow will bring a dry weather patter to the region for all of next
week and likely through next weekend as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
breezy at times and from the south. Otherwise no low ceilings or
obstructions to visibilities are expected.

The next chances for inclement weather will occur Saturday evening
and Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. A
widespread area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop.  A few of these storms could become severe.




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