Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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472
FXUS63 KSGF 151725
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1125 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Quite a bit of moisture continues to stream northeast into the
area early this morning, with widespread precipitation occurring
across the forecast area. As of 2 AM, the surface freezing line
stretched from roughly Columbus Kansas to Lamar, then to Bolivar,
Fort Leonard Wood, and on to Rolla. This line will move little
through mid morning or so today. Along and north of this line,
widespread freezing rain can be expected through morning, with a
quarter to half inch of ice accretion expected. The highest ice
amounts are still expected across the northwestern CWA (Lamar to
Nevada/Ft Scott, east to Lake of the Ozarks), where temperatures
are coldest and ice accretion will be most efficient.

Will continue the Ice Storm Warning unchanged for now, though it
is certainly possible that a few counties along the southern edge
may be able to be trimmed away early before the entire warning
expires at noon. Low level WAA is expected to increase later this
morning, and that will help the freezing line finally push north
toward I-70 by mid day.

Continued warm air advection tonight will generally offset any
diurnal drop in temperature, so lows tonight will likely be quite
similar to today`s high temperatures. Additional rain and perhaps
a few thunderstorms will move in from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Rain and thunderstorms will continue Monday, as a closed upper
level low lifts north toward the region. Precipitation should
finally end Monday night as that low and associated surface front moves
east of the area. Highs on Monday will be mild, with readings in
the 50s and low 60s.

Cooler, though seasonable, temperatures are expected Tuesday
behind the front.

The overall upper level pattern gets somewhat messy and
disorganized during the middle portion of the workweek, with broad
split flow over the region. This should support generally dry
conditions, along with warmer temperatures. Highs Wednesday
through Friday look to reach the upper 50s and low 60s.
Rain chances will be on the low side, though a few stray showers
will be possible as a couple of weak waves move through the
region.

More organized rain chances then look to return by next weekend,
as the upper level flow becomes better organized and large scale
troughing develops over the western US. With southwest flow aloft,
however, temperatures will likely remain on the mild side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Not much change to the forecast through 18Z Monday. Expect IFR to
at times LIFR conditions to continue through the entire period at
all 3 TAF sites. Periods of drizzle and fog will persist through
the afternoon. By tonight, main upper low begins to lift northeast
towards the region. Expect another surge of moisture late tonight
with widespread showers moving into the region once again. Cannot
rule out a rumble of thunder towards the end of the TAF period. As this
low lifts northeast, low level jet increases late tonight with
LLWS developing. Some gusty winds will begin to mix to the surface
as gradient tightens and likely see southerly winds gust to 20 to
25 knots from late tonight through 18Z Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ095-096-101>105.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding



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