Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
318 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

First round of storms that developed Thursday afternoon over the
Central / Southern Plains has moved across most of the forecast
area early this morning. The portion that moved across our
southern tier of counties has produced wind damage from Table Rock
Lake eastward into Christian/Taney/Douglas counties. Storms
crossing the central and northern portion of the forecast area
have mainly produced heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts around
40-50 mph.

Next round of storms developing over north central OK will
gradually weaken through the morning but may hold together long
enough to affect our western counties with sub-severe convection
through mid to late morning.

Will be trimming the tornado watch through the early morning as
strongest storms move eastward across south central MO. Otherwise
expect another round of strong to severe storms to develop from
central OK to eastern Kansas this afternoon and affect our region
this evening and during the overnight hours.

With potentially two more rounds of rain affecting the region,
will go ahead and keep the flash flood watch going over our
western counties and have included Barry/Stone/Lawrence counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Expect storms to be ongoing early Saturday morning and into the
afternoon as the surface front shifts eastward with the approach
of the main upper level trough. Dry slot associated with upper
trough passage should overspread the region sometime between late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. As a strong surface high
builds into the region on Sunday,still looks like we will see
below normal temperatures with some location possibly dropping
into the upper 40s Sunday morning.

Low precipitation chances return on Monday as a clipper type
system drops across the region from the northwest. Otherwise it
looks pretty dry and relatively cool through Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

A line of strong thunderstorms will move through the region
overnight and impact all area terminals. Where storms do occur,
visibilities and potentially ceilings will fall to MVFR. Heavy
rainfall, very gusty surface winds in excess of 60 mph will occur
as the strongest storms impact the regions Aerodromes. Hail may
also occur with these storms.

Showers and storms are expected to continue through much of the
day Friday with improving flight conditions and storms ending
during the evening hours.


MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055-066>068-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.



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