Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201105

605 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to be shunted to the east
early today as a deep upper level trough moves across the Great
Lakes region. Areas of light fog will again develop through
sunrise across both the eastern Ozarks as well as southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri as the high moves east and southerly
winds return moisture to the area.

In advance of the cold front that will begin to move into the
region during the overnight hours tonight, temperatures will climb
into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture will also pool across the
region in advance of the front with dew points in the upper 60s.

The front is expected to begin making its way through the Ozarks
around midnight and have pushed south of the region by late in the
morning. There will be some instability for the front to work
with, however, the front appears as though it will be rather
gently sloped with limited forcing noted by short term models.
This would limit the potential for any widespread strong or severe
convection, though an isolated strong storm may occur.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Some lingering showers or rumbles of thunder will be pushing south
across southern Missouri during the morning hours on Sunday with
the rain and storms coming to an end by mid to late morning.
Behind the front a cool Canadian airmass will begin to filter into
the region through the remainder of the day.

Temperatures Sunday and through the middle of next week will be on
the cool side with highs in the low to middle 70s. A warming trend
will occur for the end of the work week and into next weekend as
an upper ridge builds over the region. Temperatures will only
climb to around the 80 degree make though as the cool airmass will
linger over the area.

Models continue to show a short wave trying to move through the
upper ridge, though it never makes it into the Ozarks. As a result
the forecast for next week looks to be on the dry and cool side.
All in all a rather pleasant week ahead for the Ozarks.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Areas of light fog will continue until after sunrise this morning,
with vis restrictions generally in the MVFR range. The exception
will be at BBG, where periods of IFR vis will be possible. Fog
should dissipate between 13Z and 14Z.

Southwest winds will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold
front, which will move into the region late tonight. A few
scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the front late, but
coverage is not expected to be particularly widespread. For now,
will handle rain/thunder chances with a Prob30 group. Once the
front passes, winds will become northerly.




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