Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
657 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Upper level high amplitude ridge is currently situated over the
Central States with an upper low over Nevada and an associated
long wave trough digging into the Great Basin region out west. At
the surface...high pressure dominates the southeastern quarter of
the U.S. with a front meandering from the Great Lakes into the
Central Plains states.

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will persist into Saturday
as the area remains under high pressure. Temperatures will be
about 10 degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s
and lows in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The western low begins to lift out from Friday into Saturday
making its way into the Northern Plains by Saturday evening. This
will push a cold front...which develops over the Front Range of
the Rockies...out into the Plains. Moisture and warm air advection
ahead of the front will begin to produce showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Kansas during the day on Saturday.

As the upper low makes its way into the Great Lakes region on
Sunday...the surface front will slowly push through the region.
Not expecting any severe weather at this time...but with
percipitable water values in the 1-2 inch range...could see some
moderate rainfall amounts especially on Sunday.

As the western system moves out over the weekend...a piece of the
system will split and become cut off over Northern Mexico. This
will keep enough moisture available to produce post-frontal
showers into the early part of the week. Expect the rain to
finally come to an end during the day on Tuesday.

With the passage of the surface front on Sunday...expect a return
to fall with more seasonal temperatures. Could even see some
slightly below normal temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. By
week`s end...temperatures will be back to more seasonal levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Clear skies and light winds will allow for pleasent flying
conditions today and tonight. No impacts to aviation are expected
over the next 24 hours.




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