Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 282341
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Upper pattern continues to have ridging over the central U.S. with
an embedded area of low pressure and associated shortwave energy
remaining cutoff across Iowa and northern Missouri. Further to the
west, a large upper level low remains over the southwestern U.S. A
few cumulus have developed across the area again today, but
nothing has yet to develop into a shower across the area.
Temperatures have reached the upper 70s to low 80s across the area
so far this afternoon.

Forecast will focus on the upper level low pressure out west as it
begins to move into the central U.S. by the middle to later part
of the week. Thunderstorm chances will increase by Tuesday night
into Wednesday with best chances of convection on Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Cut off low and shortwave energy over Iowa and northern Missouri
will begin to shift southeast later this afternoon and tonight as
the larger low out to the west begins to kick out of the southwest
U.S. Dry conditions are expected over the area through Monday with
lows tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s and highs again on Monday
in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Upper ridging will be in place over the area on Monday night into
Tuesday as the upper low lifts into the northern Plains. Upper
level energy and diffluence will spread into western CWA Tuesday
night into Wednesday with precipitation beginning to spread east
into the area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The main
action will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday though as trough
and cold front will begin pushing east into the area. 0-6 shear
values look pretty impressive with certainly enough instability
for strong to potentially severe storms to be possible during this
time frame.

Cooler and drier weather will move in over the weekend with
northwest flow setting up behind the trough. Below normal
temperatures are expected over the weekend and possibly into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

An upper level ridge moving east towards the Ozarks will help keep
light surface winds and nearly clear skies over the region. The
light winds will aid in the potential for MVFR visibilities during
the early morning hours with visibilities as hazy skies develop.
Once the sun rises the limits to visibility will diminish quickly.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch






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