Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

...Warming Trend through Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A more substantial warming trend will begin today as southerly
winds become established. Clouds will be on the increase response
to increasing moisture advection and the approach of a jet
streak/upper level disturbance.

These features along with developing isentropic upglide will bring
the chance of showers mainly to south central Missouri. A few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out given some modest

With warmer temperatures no winter precipitation is expected

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Spring-like temperatures are still expected Wednesday into Thursday
as southerly winds increase. High temperatures will climb into the
60s both days and cannot rule out a few locations reaching 70
degrees on Thursday.

A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night as a broad low
amplitude trough transitions eastward across the the northern
CONUS. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will with the
frontal passage, especially along and south of the Interstate 44
corridor where moisture quality will be better.

Strong cold air advection will follow the frontal passage on gusty
northerly winds late Thursday night into Friday. This may bring a
brief transition to light snow before the precipitation ends late
Thursday night into Friday morning. However little if any
accumulation is expected.

Forecast certainty decreases this weekend into next week as a more
active southwesterly flow evolves in response to a developing
upper level trough out west. This will bring milder temperatures
back into the region along with periodic chances of precipitation
into the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will shift to the southeast tomorrow morning,
bringing in some much warmer air. Otherwise no low clouds or
obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.




LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.