Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
638 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A persistent sfc ridge extending from the Great Lakes to the
Ozarks and rising mid level heights will keep the overall weather
quiet. Some fog will be possible, mainly south of I-44 where low
level winds will be lightest. Some localized fog on/near lakes may
also be possible. 850mb temperature fields are unseasonably warm
for this time of year and supportive of sfc highs in the low 90s
for the western and northern cwfa.

Some high res guidance (NAM nest, ARW) does try to break out a few
showers today. Having a tough time seeing any forcing mechanisms for
this and sfc dew points for NAM nest seem a bit too high. Not
carrying any significant rain chances, but chances for isolated
activity are non-zero. Will watch trends.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Persistent high pressure aloft will flatten out Wed/Thu as
disturbances shift northeast from the Rockies to the Corn
Belt/Great Lakes. Rain chances look to be well west through north
of the area confined to a stalled front.

Medium range guidance is persistent in shifting a strong upper
level trough into the western CONUS late Thu-Fri with a
downstream strong upper level ridge building over us. The high
amplitude pattern will continue into the weekend with the western
system cutting off and only very slowly shifting eastward. Rain
chances will increase over eastern KS western MO over the weekend
as the upper system and associated sfc front move slowly eastward.
The timing of this rain is questionable given the high
amplitude/slow pattern.

With the main belt of mid latitude westerlies shifted far to the
north, we aren`t looking at a cool fall season air mass for a few
days. However, it finally looks like the passage of the front
associated with the western system will move into the area early
next week with continued rain chances Sunday/Mon. Some guidance is
hinting that at least the tail end/fringe of a modified Canadian
air mass might try briefly to make a push into the area Mon-Tue,
but it doesn`t look to be a significant cool down.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds and VFR flight
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.


Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Below are record highs and record warm low temperatures, and
corresponding years, for the next few days.


9/20--97/1954, 71/1931
9/21--93/1955, 73/1931
9/22--93/1937, 69/1937
9/23--92/1960, 72/1937


9/20--99/1954, 75/1980
9/21--95/1956, 76/1980
9/22--95/1956, 73/1988
9/23--92/1910, 73/1986


9/20--97/1954, 71/2005
9/21--97/1955, 69/1964
9/22--95/1955, 71/2005
9/23--92/1948, 69/1984


9/20--95/1954, 71/1965
9/21--94/1955, 72/1980
9/22--95/1956, 71/2005
9/23--92/1897, 70/2010


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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