Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180904
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
404 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Fog has developed in a more organized fashion along and south of
the plateau, with BBG at 1/4 for the past hour or so. To the
northwest, stratus has maintained itself, for the most part in the
MVFR to low end VFR range. Will continue to watch for fog
potential at SGF given moist surface conditions. Starting to see
tonight`s band of storms set up. Generally in a northwest to south
east fashion from near Fort Scott, KS to just west of BBG. For
areas along and west of this band (including JLN) scattered to
numerous storms are expected with IFR restrictions beneath the
heavier downpours. Activity may briefly shunt eastward enough to
affect SGF/BBG, but this shouldn`t be until around/after sunrise.
This activity will dissipate through the morning hours with flight
conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     091-092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan






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