Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 091929
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

High pressure is in control across much of the Midwest this
afternoon, with below normal temperatures and humidity being
observed area-wide.  The frontal boundary that passed through the
area yesterday is now stalled out across southern Arkansas,
stretching back to the west across southern Oklahoma into extreme
western Kansas.

As the surface high begins to push east of the region tonight, a low
level jet will impinge on that frontal boundary to form an area of
elevated thunderstorms late tonight across the Central Plains.
Individual thunderstorms will take a southeasterly track, while the
entire area of convection will move east with time as the front
begins to return back to the east-northeast as a warm front.
Current expectations are for the vast majority of this activity to
remain west of the forecast area, though a couple of elevated
thunderstorms may try to wander into the I-49 corridor during the
early morning hours tomorrow.  Convection should show a diminishing
trend after sunrise tomorrow, coincident with the weakening of the
LLJ.

For now, it looks like the warm front will be slow to make progress
during the day tomorrow, likely moving into the western CWA late
enough in the day to keep temperatures from warming too much higher
than what is being observed today.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

With the front continuing east with time tomorrow night, additional
elevated thunderstorm development is likely across the region during
the overnight hours.  Exact placement will be closely tied to the
position of the warm front, with best PoPs right now appearing to be
across central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks.  Any overnight
convection will again weaken with time on Friday, with perhaps a
couple of diurnally driven afternoon thunderstorms possible later
Friday.

The weekend is looking dry and quite warm, as the upper level ridge
becomes centered across the Central Plains.  Highs in the mid to
even upper 90s look probable for Saturday and Sunday.

Medium range guidance is then in broad agreement in strengthening
northwest flow across the Great Lakes late Sunday or Monday,
shunting the upper ridge back to the west, and bringing a cold front
into the region for the first half of next workweek.  While details
differ considerably, there will be the potential for one if not two
FROPAs next week, bringing additional chances for widespread
rainfall and cooler (perhaps MUCH cooler) temperatures to the region
by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Generally
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected along with light
and variable winds this afternoon and tonight gradually becoming
light east to southeast by tomorrow morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin





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