Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
240 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

No major changes to the overall forecast message this afternoon
and tonight, with strong/severe thunderstorms still expected to
affect a large portion of the area. Large hail, straight line
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Early this afternoon, an area of low pressure was located just
south of Wichita, with a warm front lifting north through
southwestern Missouri. Gusty south/southeast winds and partly
sunny skies have allowed 1 PM temperatures to warm into the upper
60s across much of southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. As the atmosphere
continues to destabilize this afternoon, thunderstorms are
expected to develop across southeastern Kansas and northeastern
Oklahoma, and move northeast into the forecast area by mid
afternoon. Moderate instability and very favorable shear profiles
should yield a few supercells, with large hail and tornadoes the
primary threats. We will need to be especially mindful this
afternoon of the position of the surface warm front, as the
tornado threat will be maximized with any supercell that is able
to move parallel to the boundary.

This convection will continue north and east into southern and
central Missouri by late afternoon, with additional thunderstorms
expected to move north from northern Arkansas into southern
Missouri by the late afternoon and evening hours. Again,
supercells will be favored early on, with an attendant hail and
tornado risk. With time, convection is expected to form into a
series of linear segments, with an increasing risk for straight
line winds. A tornado risk will continue with any northeastward
surging line segments as well.

While individual cell motion should be fairly rapid toward the
northeast, the synoptic scale motion of this storm system will be
rather slow, suggesting that convection may linger well into the
late night hours, especially east of Highway 63.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Convection should be ongoing Thursday morning with the area
solidly in the warm sector. Question then becomes will the
atmosphere destabilize enough on Thursday afternoon. Surface
front is forecast to be located roughly along Highway 63 on
Thursday morning. The possibility is there that the day`s severe
convection will get started over south central Missouri. Believe
hail and wind will be the threats if storms do develop.

This system moves out by Friday morning. The area is then under an
upper level ridge until the next system approaches on Sunday. This
system looks to take a more southerly track as it digs towards the
Texas Gulf Coast. So...we should be more on the northern periphery
of the rain shield. This system departs late Monday evening with
yet another system approaching by Tuesday evening.

With the rather progressive flow...will not see too much variation
in day to day temperatures with a slight cool down as one system
departs followed by a decent warm up with the approach of the next


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Clouds have been clearing from southwest to northeast during the
morning hours. IFR cigs at KBBG are expected to lift within the
next couple of hours.

Attention then turns to the convective event later this afternoon
into the overnight hours. Would expect thunderstorms to begin
firing over NE OK/SE KS within the next 1-3 hours. Storms are
expected to become severe and remain so through the evening hours.
Expect at least some thunder to remain in the vicinity at least
through 12z.

As the convection moves out the terminal areas between
09-12z...expect ceilings to begin lowering with MVFR/IFR ceilings
present through the remainder of the forecast period.




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