Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 112315
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013
A cold front passed through the Ozarks during the morning hours
today, turning winds to the north and ushering in a reinforcing
shot of colder air. Temperatures this evening should rapidly drop
off as high pressure begins to settle into the area, with readings
well into the single digits in most areas by tomorrow morning. The
coldest lows should be more or less along and south of the spine
of the Plateau, matching up nicely with the dentist snow pack.
The only exception to the single digits may be over the Osage
Plains, where a relative minimum in snow pack, combined with
gradually increasing south winds, will keep lows around a
comparatively balmy 10-12 degrees.
That area of high pressure will start to push southeast tomorrow,
resulting in an increase in southerly winds during the day. That
should help usher in (relatively) warmer temperatures, liking giving
us a good shot of warming into the mid or even upper 30s for the
first time in a week.
By tomorrow night, what is currently a closed area of low pressure
off the coast of Baja will begin to move east toward the region as a
southern stream shortwave. Lift ahead of this feature will result
in precipitation starting to overspread the region from west to east
Friday morning. Current indications are that the initial
precipitation will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and
rain. By Friday afternoon, temperatures west of U.S. 65 will have
likely warmed to just above freezing, resulting in a change over to
just rain, perhaps with occasional periods of snow mixed in. There
is some concern that the eastern Ozarks/portions of south central
Missouri may be a little slow to warm above freezing at the surface,
resulting in the wintry mix persisting through much of the afternoon
hours. With this dependent on a difference of just a degree or two,
as well as the likely possibility of temperatures being modified by
the Ozarks terrain, the exact location of the freezing line will be
something to keep a close eye on in later forecast updates.
By Friday night, temperatures will once again begin to fall,
resulting in a reestablishment of the wintry mix across the area.
Despite the absence of a warm nose aloft, light freezing rain or
freezing drizzle is a concern going into late Friday night and
especially Saturday morning, as it appears likely that cloud ice
will start to be lost. While ice accumulations are expected to be
rather light (generally 0.1" or less), just a light glaze of ice
will be enough to cause considerable impacts on area roads.
Any lingering precipitation/drizzle/freezing drizzle Saturday should
end during the afternoon hours. Right now, storm total snow
accumulation looks to range from a trace to 2-3", mainly over
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Ice accumulations
currently look to be between a glaze and tenth of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013
The upper pattern will gradually deamplify and become more zonal
as we head into next week. This will allow for a gradual warming
trend and a period of relatively quite weather. Temperatures will
return to more seasonal levels by early and middle part of next
The chance of precipitation and a return to more active weather could
return as early as late next week or next weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites this evening through
the day on Thursday as high pressure moves across the region.
Winds will become light and variable this evening and tonight under
the high and will pick up out of the south on Thursday behind the high.