884
FXUS63 KSGF 301731
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible across the area this
  afternoon (50-60% chance). Focus for development will depend
  on position of outflow boundaries and a cold front. There is a
  Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of these storms to become
  severe, along with a heavy rain risk for areas east of Highway
  65.

- Some mild heat and rain relief mid-week following the frontal
  passage before heat, humidity, and isolated rain chances
  (15-30%) return for the 4th of July weekend and onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A chaotic and rather annoying pattern continues to plague the
Plains tonight. That is set to change after today, but first we
have to get through the rest of the thunderstorms the pattern
has to offer. The 3 AM radar mosaic depicts scattered
thunderstorms across our area, an MCS across south KS/north OK,
and a few sets of MCSs across north KS/south NE. These are all
focused along subtle mid-level shortwaves ahead of a more
energetic and pronounced upper-level trough diving into the
northern Plains. A surface cold front associated with the larger
synoptic system is currently forcing the storm systems across
north KS/south NE.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area tonight:

Storms in our area are developing as a 20-25 kt low-level jet
noses overtop a stable surface cold pool left in the wake from
yesterday`s severe storms. Despite the stable surface layer, our
00Z sounding noted inverted-V profiles from 925-600 mb with
estimated 7.5 C/km lapse rates in this layer (though based on
the hodograph, this looks more representative of a descending
rear-inflow jet in the wake of the storm system). Whatever
leftover dry air above the stable layer has allowed some storms
to produce notable downburst signatures, prompting the issuance
of a couple SPSs for 50 mph wind gusts. Additionally, cells up
near Hermitage and Warsaw have shown elevated supercell type
structures. Our current VAD has effective bulk wind difference
at 10-15 kts. However, 1-4/5 km layer has 40 kts of shear
pointed SW, then the 4/5-8 km layer has 40 kts of shear to the
NE. Therefore, any smaller, elevated storms (such as those in
the Hermitage area), could take advantage of the 40 kts of 1-5
km shear and show supercellular aspects, presenting a marginal
hail (or accumulating small hail) and wind risk as well. This
threat will gradually decrease through tonight and into the
morning as the stable layer gets stronger, hindering downward
mixing of downbursts, and wake shear calms down a bit, hindering
whacky supercellular structures.

Tall, skinny CAPE profiles at 1000-2000 J/kg with PWATs at
1.6-1.8, along with slow storm motions will also continue to
carry a heavy rain and flash flooding threat underneath stronger
and/or training cells.


Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon:

As with yesterday, today`s thunderstorms will depend on the
evolution and position of outflow boundaries and airmass
recovery. We`ve still got quite a hefty cold pool over our
forecast area, with its outflow boundary south of the MO border.
But of additional note, the outflow boundary from the complex
across OK/KS is progressing eastward into our region. And
furthermore, the complex in KS/NE is just getting going based on
intensely cooling cloud tops on IR satellite imagery. This
complex could make it to eastern KS/western MO by 7 AM or so.
Rapid refresh models want to dissipate this system as it
encounters the cold pools across east KS/west MO, but CAMs
generally dissipate convection too fast, so its possible we see
that system move into our area later this morning.

All that said, its tough to take an educated guess as to which
outflow boundaries will be more dominant and where they will be
located. Hi-res ensemble systems including the HREF and REFS
mean want to keep the outflow boundary from yesterday`s storms
south of the MO border and be the main focus for a broken line
of storms south of our area this afternoon, but potentially
reaching into the Branson to West Plains area.

Then, the HREF/REFS mean appear to reinvigorate moisture
advection behind (west) of the outflow boundary in OK/KS, but
ahead of the outflow boundary/cold front associated with the
KS/NE system. This would then be another main focus for a broken
line of storms across east KS and west MO moving eastward
through the afternoon/evening. Of course, these scenarios are
suspect to change with slightly different positions and focuses
of storms, but the HREF/REFS mean gives a solid idea of a
greater confidence solution. Additionally, any other subtle
confluence boundaries could fire storms elsewhere from those two
main focus areas.

With all that being said, HREF/REFS mean has 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 15-30 kts of deep-layer shear develop across our
area. Additionally, RAP forecasts have -20 to -30 K Theta-E
differences. Therefore, we could see some multicell clusters
produce severe wind gusts up to 50-60 mph. If sufficient cold
pool conglomeration can occur within any multicells, especially
along stronger boundaries, MCS structures will also be possible,
bringing wind gust potential up to 60 to 70 mph. For now, a
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk exists for the entire area to account for
this risk. An upgrade to a Slight (2 of 5) Risk may be warranted
if confidence in a solution increases.

Storm chances then diminish after sunset as diurnal heating
ceases and the cold front continues its progression through the
area. Cooler and drier air behind the front will bring a mildly
refreshing bout of low temperatures in the middle 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Brief period of heat and rain relief mid-week:

Surface high pressure behind the exiting cold front will park
itself over the area Tuesday and onwards. The frontal boundary
is also forecast to be well south of the area. Therefore, rain
chances will be low, and relatively cooler temperatures will
filter into the region, bringing some mild heat and rain relief.
Seasonable highs in the middle 80s with lows in the lower to
middle 60s are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday before
temperatures and humidity begin to rise again Thursday onward.


Heat and humidity return for Independence Day Weekend:

Beginning Thursday, surface high pressure is progged to shift
east of the area as large-sale ridging slowly translates over
the region. Renewed southerly flow behind the exiting high
pressure, along with compressional heating from the ridging,
will allow warm and moist air to advect back into the region.
Highs Thursday will be in the upper 80s, then in the lower 90s
for Independence Day Weekend. Unseasonably moist air will also
return with ESAT tables bringing near-surface moisture back to
>97.5th percentile levels for early July. This will bring Heat
Index values back into the 90-100 range for Independence Day
weekend, with the potential for higher. NBM spreads still show
potential for high temperatures around 94. Notably, Branson has
a 40-60% chance of high temperatures exceeding 95 F, with the
NBM mean at 100 F Heat Index. While not overly hot, people will
be particularly vulnerable to heat due to increased outdoor
activities during the Independence Day Weekend. Precautions
should be taken for persistent heat during the holiday weekend.


Isolated 15-30% chances for rain with the return of humidity:

With the return of unseasonable moisture, pop-up thunderstorms
will also return. There are currently still global model
differences in how quickly the low-level height gradient shifts
into our region. This will largely drive the best chances for
precipitation. That being said, 15-40% chances exist Thursday
through Monday, with the lowest chances (15-20%) Thursday and
Friday, and the highest chances (30-40%) Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
period with the exception of BBG which will see MVFR ceilings at
times this afternoon. The chance of showers and storms this
afternoon and evening is uncertain and have opted to keep out of
TAFS at this time however watch for any amendments after 3pm.
Winds will remain light out of the west to southwest with a turn
to the northwest likely tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Burchfield