Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 031929
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms were continuing
ahead of an upper level shortwave and surface boundary, and have
expanded across southern Missouri as the instability has
increased. Have had to issue a couple of flash flood warnings for
some slow moving training cells which were moving over already
saturated ground from previous heavy rain. Drier air on the
horizon behind the shortwave and surface boundary where dewpoints
were in the 50s and low 60s across northeast sections of the CWA
and across northern and central MO.

Forecast will remain centered on convection and additional heavy
rain chances through the forecast period.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Scattered showers and isolated thunder will persist into the
evening hours, but should begin to end from north to south as the
shortwave swings through and also diminish in coverage and
intensity during the evening as instability decreases. Storms are
expected to remain below severe limits, but training cells will
continue to be monitored for some isolated flash flooding.
Residual flooding will continue tonight from previous heavy
rainfall over the past couple of days.

Overnight period into Saturday looks mostly dry as we get into a
period of subsidence across the forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

As we head into late Saturday night, we may have remnants of an
MCS move into our southwest CWA should it develop out in the
Plains, but there are still questions as to whether or not this
will occur. Scattered convection would then be possible during the
day Sunday.

Attention then turns to the next frontal boundary, poised to move
through early next week. This will likely bring at least one round
of heavy rain back to the area, depending on how far south the
front can make it. It does appear that the front will begin to
lift back north into the area later in the week for additional
thunderstorm and heavy rain chances. Will need to monitor this
setup for the potential of additional flooding/flash flooding for
next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Scattered showers and storms will linger across the Ozarks through
this evening bringing the potential for some limited impacts to
aviators. Flight conditions overnight will be VFR with some areas
of MVFR visibilities beginning around sunrise.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch





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