000
FXUS63 KSGF 301105
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Another cool one across the region this morning. Temperatures
ranged from the upper 40s near Joplin to upper 50s across the
eastern Ozarks where cloud cover has kept temperatures up a bit.

The main story through the short term will be the upper level low
across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and how vort lobes
rotating around this low will impact our region. At this point, it
looks mostly dry, however, a sprinkle or light shower may be
possible over the eastern Ozarks and central portions of Missouri.

Party to mostly cloudy skies are expected through the short term
as each vorticity lobe passes in relatively close proximity.
Afternoon highs will be kept down a bit and overnight lows will
not fall as much across those areas with high concentration of
cloud cover (generally east of Highway 65). Elsewhere, conditions
will remain dry and mild.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The dry and mild pattern will continue through the weekend as the
upper level low out east produces a northerly or northwesterly
flow through Sunday. As the low exits stage right, an upper level
ridge will begin to build in allowing for temperatures to warm
slightly into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Globals are in somewhat better agreement in terms of what is
expected with the approaching cold front and parent upper level
trough next week. Both GFS and ECMWF agree on the more
progressive pattern, which should limit rainfall. This package has
rainfall amounts a bit lower than previous forecasts. Only subtle
differences in timing exist with ECMWF bringing the front through
early Thursday vs GFS, which brings the front through Wednesday
afternoon.

Behind the frontal boundary, temperatures will drop off at least
slightly (ECMWF seems a bit cooler). Temperatures will be right
around or perhaps just a bit below average from mid to late week
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR will continue through today and tonight. Scattered clouds will
develop by midday and afternoon at around 5k feet. Clouds will
dissipate by sunset. Winds will be northerly between 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Griffin