000
FXUS63 KSGF 011630 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1030 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

The cold front has entered western Missouri during the past hour.
Low pressure currently located over the area is strengthening and
there is a widespread area of increasing pressure rises across
Kansas. This intensification will result in windy conditions
behind the advancing cold front, with frequent gusts to 35 mph.

Continuing to see light rainfall develop overhead at this time,
coincident with the surface low and associated cold front. This
area of light rain will eventually shift to the northeast. Will
continue to watch precipitation wrap around the back side of this
maturing storm system. The past several runs of the HRRR support
recent model output with bringing an area of flurries into the
region beginning mid/late afternoon across northern portions of
the area and spreading southeast deeper into the Missouri Ozarks
this evening. Brief loss of cloud ice will need to be monitored,
which would result in a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle
depending upon surface temperatures. However, deeper cold air
should quickly surge into the region and flurries should dominate
this evening. Cannot rule out a minor dusting of grassy surfaces
in some spots tonight, but overall, little if any accumulation is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a rainy night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 30s, while winds were
breezy and generally from the south.

Nearly 100 percent coverage of measurable rain occurred this
morning as a large shield of precipitation was detected on radar
over the entire state of Missouri. More rain is expected this
morning, followed by a change over to flurries or light snow late
this morning and afternoon.

The forecast looks right on track as nearly all locations will not
experience any measurable snow accumulations. We can not rule out
a dusting to a half inch up north of Highway 54. Warm ground
temperatures, diurnal snowfall, and light rates will make
accumulating snow difficult.

A cold front will bring a colder air mass through southern Missouri
today, allowing for that change over to snow. Temperatures are
expected to drop throughout the day, while winds shift to the
northwest behind the front.

Lingering flurries or light snow are possible this evening,
particularly over central Missouri. Eventually this precipitation
will exit the area by early Monday morning. Overnight lows tonight
will drop into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Zonal flow will quickly evolve Monday and Tuesday, allowing for a
brief warm up. We could observe temperatures warming into the 50s
by Tuesday afternoon. Both Monday and Tuesday will remain dry.

Our next cold front will arrive on Wednesday, forcing a band of
snow to impact the region behind it. We think this east to west
oriented band of snow will progress through the area quickly,
leaving behind some very minor accumulations. Air temperatures
will certainly be cold enough for snow to stick to the ground, and
we could see amounts ranging from zero up to two inches Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. We`re still four to five days out, so
this forecast could adjust in the future.

Beyond Thursday, it appears as though a strong upper level ridge
of high pressure will build into the nation`s mid section by
Friday, and persist through the weekend. This will set up a
beautiful upcoming weekend, with temperatures possibly warming
into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 549 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure and a cold front over
eastern KS will move quickly east through the taf sites over the
next few hours. Gusty winds will occur behind the front, especially at
KJLN and KSGF. IFR ceilings are common over the area, but progged
soundings and ensemble guidance indicate improving ceilings toward
18z with mvfr ceilings expected thereafter. Light rain/drizzle
should also diminish behind the front. Very light snow may briefly
occur as precipitation tapers off after 16z as colder air moves
in.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA