Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290810
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
310 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Early this morning surface boundary extends from southwest Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri. Low level jet had
increased across the Plains with showers over western Oklahoma into
south central Kansas and another area in southern Oklahoma.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and
overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into
western Kansas later today. Expect rain to spread northward across
the area this morning and then continue into tonight, with some
heavier pockets of rain possible tonight. Surface boundary will
remain south of the region today and then begin lifting northward
tonight. Models are indicating an increasing trend in elevated
instability tonight from south to north and as the front lifts
northward cannot rule out some stronger storms across the south
with the main threat being hail. SPC day 1 did push the Marginal
Risk area northward into our area based on this scenario.

With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with
the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will
remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few
days with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm
front lifting northward through the Ozarks. Best juxtaposition of
instabilities and wind shear will reside across the eastern
Ozarks, with both being sufficient for some strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough then
opens as it translates into Illinois late Saturday night and
Sunday. With its proximity to the area and weak troughing across
central and northern Missouri some lingering low probabilities of
mainly showers will persist into Sunday.

The remainder of the period from Monday through Thursday looks
relative quiet with surface high pressure and a general northwest
flow aloft. This will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 Monday and
Tuesday and then warming back to near normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. There is no strong signal for any widespread rain or
thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue overnight with broken high clouds and
light northeast surface winds.

A low pressure system will then approach the area on Friday with
rain showers overspreading the region starting in the morning. A
few thunderstorms are likely by the afternoon, but coverage is
expected to be too limited to include in the TAFs.

Ceilings will lower throughout the day with MVFR predominantly
expected by the afternoon. IFR conditions appear increasingly
likely around Branson.

Surface winds will increase out of the east on Friday with low
level wind shear conditions developing in the evening.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann


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