Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Remnant outflow boundary now extending from central Oklahoma into
central Arkansas and this is where showers and a few thunderstorms
persist. Visible satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover
across the region, with some signs of thinning/eroding across
eastern Kansas into western Missouri.  Models prog aforementioned boundary to
lift back northward tonight as a warm front. Nocturnal low level jet
is expected to develop over Oklahoma and Kansas with both the GFS
and NAM developing convection on the nose of the jet over Kansas
late tonight then pushing it northeastward into central and eastern
Missouri on Wednesday. Deep layer shear strongest over Kansas with
weaker shear values as you head into Missouri and thus not
expecting any severe weather. Cannot rule out a few light showers this
evening across the Ozarks and will cover this with lower end
probabilities and higher chance probabilities later tonight into
Wednesday as low level jet impinges on frontal boundary.

Humid conditions expected for Wednesday as surface dew points
expected to reach the lower 70s. This combined with temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s will push heat index values in the mid
and upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A brief dry period is expected Thursday before a shortwave trough
translates along the Canadian border driving a cold front southward
into the region Friday. This front will bring rain chances back to
the area for Friday and Saturday. Of more significance is much
cooler and less humid air in its wake for the weekend. 850mb temperatures
fall back into the middle teens for Saturday and Sunday. This will
bring slightly below normal temperatures with highs mainly in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Any rain looks to exit the area early
Sunday with cool high pressure then in control for the remainder of
Sunday.

Medium range models do diverge somewhat in their solutions for
Monday and Tuesday. GFS much quicker with return flow bring rain
chances back into the picture as early as Monday, while the ECMWF
hold back until later Tuesday. With these differences went with the
model consensus for probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

diminishing showers have left cloud cover across the region. While
the region is expected o remain overcast trough the forecast
period, ceilings should be VFR. A few showers or periods of light
rain will also be possible late in the evening and during the
overnight hours as additional convection develops across eastern
Kansas and shift east into the Ozarks. This activity will be on a
waning trend as it moves into the Ozarks though. A period of MVFR
visibilities is anticipated for Wednesday morning as cool
temperatures move over saturated ground. The limitations to
visibility will improve quickly however.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch





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