520
FXUS63 KSGF 130535
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall will be the main threat overnight with
  nighttime flash flooding a concern for southern Missouri.
  These showers and thunderstorms have had a history of
  producing 3-4 inch/hr rain rates. Never drive down flooded
  roadways and remember to turn around, don`t drown.

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through most of today.
  These storms will be marginally severe with damaging gusts up
  to 60 mph and heavy rainfall.

- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Rain chances and potential for flooding remain main forecast
challenge through the short term.

An unstable but marginally capped environment is in place across the
forecast area. The support from a shortwave combined with the low
level jet that led to a band of storms last night into early this
morning has diminished.

At the surface a cold front was slowing as it moved into the SGF
CWA but is expected to near the AR border tonight. This will
bring a bit more mild temperatures this weekend.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop mainly ahead of the front. While shear is weak, MLCAPES
of 1000-2000 will lead to some stronger updrafts this afternoon
however with weak shear the threat for severe weather will be
limited to collapsing downdrafts.

Attention tonight shifts to another shortwave entering the
central Plains which will dig into a closed low over southeast
KS into Sunday. A 20-30 SW to NE orientated low level jet will
be parallel to upper flow which should be enough to formulate a
weakly back building MCS as the upper low slowly advects east.
With precipital water recovering back toward 2 inches leading to
a concern over flooding.

Rainfall tonight into Sunday morning is expected to be
diurnally driven leading to diminishing coverage by mid morning.
The extent of rain combined with 850mb cold air advection
dropping 12z Saturday values of 18-20C to closer to 16C Sunday
raises questions on the degree of recover and storm coverage
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The work week for most will begin where Sunday left off as the upper
low wobbles into the region.  This system is not handled well by the
models with some maintaining a connection to the upper flow which
would advect it out of the area Monday with others cutting it off
from the flow and slowly weakening before the wave moves east
Tuesday. Thus low end POPs are warranted Monday and Tuesday though
confidence is limited at this time.

Farther into next week, the complex upper pattern and diverse model
solutions generally agree with the northern stream remaining
dominant with the SW desert upper ridge periodically poking
toward the forecast area along with the summertime high over the
southeast US. In between...weak waves offering energy as well as
surges of moisture will be drawn northward. This pattern will
likely result in diurnal storm chances favoring afternoon
convection as instability builds and possibly late night hours
into next weekend.

NBM QPF is generally around a quarter inch daily though high
precipital water and weak flow will need to be monitored for
the potential for flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through southern MO
tonight. Most of this activity will remain sub-severe, though
heavy rainfall is occurring. This has led to reduced
visibilities and MVFR/IFR ceilings. Southerly winds may become gusty
in and around these thunderstorms. Expect intermittent
thunderstorms to occur through most of the period with activity
diminishing by Sunday evening and VFR ceilings returning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Soria