Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 290538
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Breezy southwesterly winds have developed across the region this
afternoon ushering in a warmer air mass. Mid afternoon
temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
The upper level ridge will move over the region Saturday and
850 mb temperatures will warm into the teens Celsius. This will
allow highs to top out well into the 60s Saturday afternoon and
some locations may approach the 70 degree mark.
Some low level stratus clouds may develop during the overnight and
morning hours, but the low level moisture return will be very
shallow so any clouds that develop should burn off quickly by the
afternoon hours allowing temperatures to rise quickly. Lows
Saturday night into Sunday morning will stay in the 50s as the
warmer air mass remains over the region.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Temperatures will warm quickly into the 60s Sunday morning, but
then big changes will occur Sunday afternoon into the night time
hours as a strong cold front sweeps through the area. As the cold
front moves south temperatures will fall quickly from north to
south behind the front Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Breezy south to southwesterly winds will continue ahead of the
front this weekend, then breezy northerly winds will develop
behind the frontal passage.
Light rain or drizzle will develop along and right behind the
front as it pushes south through the area Sunday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will fall quickly behind the front into the
20s Sunday night into Monday morning. Low level moisture will
remain high behind the front as the 850 mb front lags behind the
surface front and an upper level shortwave trough tracks east
across the Plains Sunday night into Monday. Mid level moisture
will be quite dry with this system, so expecting more drizzle or
freezing drizzle to occur due to the dry mid levels. However, there
may be periods of light rain or freezing rain at times as the lift
increases with the shortwave.
Expecting at least a band or period of freezing drizzle or light
freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning, but there are
questions on how long, as strong dry air advection at the surface
will start to overspread the area Monday morning and the drizzle
may have a hard time overcoming the dry air advection. So expect
the precipitation to taper off as this occurs.
There will be a period of freezing drizzle or light freeze rain
from around midnight Sunday night into Monday morning before the
dry air advection kicks in. A light glaze to a few hundredths of
an inch of ice will be possible generally along and south of I-44
on elevated surfaces. This light precipitation could also create a
few slick spots on a roadways for the Monday morning commute.
Also, breezy northerly winds will occur behind the front and with
temperatures dropping into the 20s. This may lead to the potential
for patchy black ice.
A much colder air mass will spread into the area on Monday as
highs only warm into the lower 30s and lows drop into the 20s both
Monday and Tuesday mornings.
A gradual warming trend will occur Tuesday into the middle of
next week as highs warm back into the 40s and 50s. An upper level
disturbance may move through the region towards the end of next
week bringing the next chances for rain to the area. Medium range
models have been very inconsistent with each other and with run
to run with this system.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
The main aviation impacts through Saturday evening will be wind
related. Low level wind shear conditions will persist tonight and
will develop again Saturday evening. Meanwhile, brisk southerly
surface winds will continue and will be gusty from mid-morning
through late afternoon.
Low level moisture will increase across the region from late
tonight into Saturday evening, but weather models continue to be
overly aggressive with the amount of moisture. We have therefore
kept TAFs in the VFR category for now. There is low potential for
some low cloud development early Saturday morning. A slightly
better chance at low cloud development exists just beyond this TAF
period (late Saturday night).