Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 041110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
510 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Skies have finally cleared as surface high pressure builds into
the region from the west. The end result is a seasonable morning
across the region with temperatures currently in the 20s.
Temperatures will likely not bottom out given a northwest breeze,
with temperatures dropping to a few degrees either side of 20 by
daybreak. Wind chill values will be well into the teens.

High confidence forecast through the upcoming weekend as we
continue on a temperature roller coaster ride. Full sunshine will
allow for a decent diurnal rebound today with highs in the 40s.
Will need to watch dewpoints this afternoon as they will likely
mix out to around 10F along/southeast of Plateau (possibly
lower). This will result in relative humidity values in the 20s.
Wind speeds will be low enough to preclude a more substantive
fire weather concern. Another night of near average temperatures
is expected tonight with clouds increasing late.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The temperature roller coaster ride will continue into the
weekend with readings running a good 5-10 degrees above average.
A weak cold front will move through the region Friday night
presenting a chance for a few sprinkles or flurries. No
precipitation is expected this weekend.

A more substantial cold front will surge through the region on
Sunday, delivering a much colder airmass to the region. Run to run
and inter model/ensemble consistency remains very good with this
cold snap, resulting in a moderate to high confidence forecast.
Well below average temperatures are expected early next week, with
low chances for the occasional light snow shower/flurry. Overall,
the atmosphere looks to be rather moisture starved, limiting our
precipitation potential.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0509 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region can expect
great flying conditions with VFR through the next 24 hours. Clear
skies and light westerly to southwesterly winds under 10 knots can
be expected.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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