Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240836

336 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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