Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
524 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Southwesterly winds will continue to bring warmer temperatures in
to the region through today. Afternoon highs should climb to
around the 50 degree mark across the Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas. This will allow for some significant melting of the
remaining snow cover over the region.

The southerly winds will also start to slowly bring additional
moisture into the area. The combination of cold ground or
remaining snow cover, warm moist air and a flat upper level ridge
moving across the plains will combine to produce low stratus and
the potential for widespread fog across the region tonight. Some
areas may see visibilities reduced to less than a mile at times.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Southerly surface flow will continue through the day Saturday
allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 50s as a
storm system develops and begins to move across the plains.

By Sunday, the continued southerly winds will have worked to
moisten the atmosphere sufficiently that showers and
thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday afternoon into the late
evening hours. Temperatures will climb into the lower 60s across
most of the area thanks to the continuous warm air advection. This
combination of warm and moist air and a cold front approaching
the area will act to produce the aforementioned thunderstorm

While there is the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms to develop it will be highly contingent on how much
instability will be available. Models have more than sufficient
wind shear noted in the latest runs but instability is
significantly lacking. Will continue to monitor the later runs

A cooler airmass will move into the region behind the front with
gusty surface winds expected as well. The temperatures will be
slightly more typical for this time of year with highs in the
lower 40s on Monday and Tuesday. Models are showing some
lingering wrap around precipitation across mainly areas north of
I-44 Monday afternoon and evening. Some of this may briefly chance
from rain to snow, but this will be highly dependent on how fast
and deep the cold air can make its way into the region.
Regardless, no accumulations are expected

The remainder of the week will see a warming trend with highs back
around the 50 degree mark by the end of the work week. Models do
show another system moving through the area next Friday but this
is a long way off to be definitive.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Southerly surface winds will become gusty this afternoon and
overnight. Low level wind shear will be the primary concern
through today with the potential for fog restricting visibilities
to MVFR after midnight.




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