Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261950
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Ongoing thunderstorms were becoming more outflow structured across
southwest and south central Missouri this afternoon. This will
lead to further weakening with time, and we may consider
cancelling the Severe Thunderstorm Watch early.

The main show will occur tonight as a line of thunderstorms
approaches the Kansas and Missouri state line toward midnight.

We think a few of these storms could become organized, with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and small hail. With 0 to 3 km
shear vectors screaming to the north northeast at 40 to 45 knots,
any northwest to southeast oriented line segments will have the
chance of spinning up some meso-vorts with a tornado risk.
However, it`s quite uncertain that any segments will evolve into
this northwest to southeast structure. This is more of a short
term forecast challenge.

Storms are expected to continue through the Highway 65 corridor,
and should weaken as they approach the eastern Ozarks.

Additional storms will possible Wednesday as the main cold front
shifts through southern Missouri during the daytime hours. There
is a severe risk for hail and wind east of Highway 65. All
precipitation should exit the Ozarks Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

A small window of quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday
with mild temperatures.

The risk for organized storms will ramp up Friday night into
Saturday, as another negatively tilted storm system approaches
from the west.

This system will need to be monitored closely as several
ingredients could come together for an episode of severe
thunderstorms. There doesn`t appear to be any potential negatives
for Friday night and Saturday`s set up at the moment.

Sunday into Monday the pattern would offer another window of quiet
weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor the radar today and tonight.

A big storm system was approaching the region from the west, which
will force showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. Some
thunderstorms were already ongoing across central Missouri, and
are expected to slowly drift into far southern Missouri by this
afternoon.

Surface winds could be gusty at times this afternoon.

If any storms directly impacts an airfield, look for significantly
reduced flight conditions, especially if some of these storms
become severe.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer


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