Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 280519
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KSGF free of echoes though there remains a slight chance for
isolated TSRA over the eastern Ozarks through late afternoon as a
short wave descends southward into the upper trough over the Ohio
Valley.

Next and more potent shortwave to descend down back side of ridge
tomorrow afternoon. While modeled sounding lapse rates not showing
that much of an improvement...believe low level warm advection to
exceed guidance leading to better instability and at least
scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into early Monday over the
eastern Ozarks. Some question over the degree of severe threat with
0-6 KM bulk shear barely reaching 40 knots.

Warm air advection to make high temperatures a challenge and have
trended above the upper end of guidance tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There will be break in the parade of waves descending the western
trough leading to quiet though seasonably warm weather Monday into
Tuesday. A diffuse wave will generate scattered convection Tuesday
night into Wednesday...with the associated trailing frontal boundary
generating additional storm chances during the later half of the
work week as it hang ups across the region due to the western upper
ridge breaking down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann





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