Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Ridge of high pressure remains over the region this morning and will
result in another hot and muggy day across southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Today may end up being the hottest day of
the week as 850mb temperatures warm into the mid 20`s C. Highs in
the middle 90s to around 100 degrees will occur. Dewpoints may
mix down some this afternoon, but still heat index values will top
out between 102 and 112 degrees this afternoon. The hottest
conditions will be across southeastern Kansas into central

The ridge will start to flatten some late today and especially
tonight. As this occurs storms are expected to develop to the
north this evening and sag south into the area mainly north of
Highway 54. This activity will be scattered in nature. A cap will
be in place but the elevated cap will weaken some this evening
into tonight. There will not be a lot of lift though, so unless an
outflow boundary can develop and produce the needed lift,
coverage in storms south of Hwy 54 may be pretty sparse this
evening and tonight. A few strong storms will be possible but not
expecting widespread severe storms at this time.

An upper level trough will spread south across the area
Sunday/Sunday night, resulting in an upper level ridge building
up to the west of the area. A front will start to sag south into
the area Sunday into Sunday night. This could spark additional
scattered storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A few strong
storms will once again be possible.

Temperatures will not be quite as warm on Sunday as today with the
ridge flattening, but they will still be on the warm side. 850mb
temperatures will be in the lower 20`s C allowing highs in the
lower to middle 90s. The front may also result in some dewpoint
pooling and continue to produce high heat index values. Heat index
values of 100 to 108 are expected on Sunday. Storms may affect
temperatures some, especially north, but with the storms now not
expected until later in the day and being scattered in nature
confidence continues to increase that heat headlines will be
needed Sunday. Therefore, will go ahead and extend the current
Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory through 7 pm Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The area will be in northwest flow for the first of the week which
could result in scattered showers and storms at times.
Temperatures will also be slightly cooler, but a big cool down
will not occur by any means. Highs will still be in the upper 80s
to the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle 90s to
around 100 degrees both Monday and Tuesday.

The ridge will build back to the east over the area by the middle
of the week allowing temperatures in the middle 90s to return by
weeks end. The ridge will flatten again Friday into next weekend
allowing additional shower and storm chances to be possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR flight conditions expected at the
terminals through the period. The ridge of high pressure over the
region will flatten late today and tonight and will allow
convection to develop from eastern Kansas into central Missouri.
However, these storms are expected to remain north of the TAF
sites. This will have to be monitored in later forecasts for the
possibility of further southward development. Will leave any
mention of precipitation out of the TAFs at this time.


MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ082-090>092-094>098-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.



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