Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 031135 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the region this
morning, with a few small clusters of elevated showers/thunderstorms
developing across the area. These are in response to weak lift
centered around 925 MB, along with the larger scale influence of a
broad shortwave moving south through the upper Mississippi Valley.
That frontal boundary will more or less remain stationary over the
region during the day today, with scattered thunderstorms expected
over much of the area today. Little or no severe weather is
expected with this convection, though occasional heavy rain may be a
concern, and certainly won`t help the flood situation across the
Ozarks. Along with the convection, abundant cloud cover will keep
temperatures on the cool side for early July, with highs only in the low
The aforementioned shortwave is expected to pass through the area
this evening, which should (temporarily) bring rain chances down as
shortwave ridging develops in its wake. A few showers may linger
into the overnight hours over far southern Missouri, though this
will be the exception rather than rule. The passage of the upper
wave will also push the low level front a bit further south,
allowing somewhat cooler and drier air to build into the area
overnight. Lows tonight look to fall into the low to mid 60s, as
dewpoints drop into the low 60s. With skies becoming at least
partly cloudy, we`ll need to watch for fog potential late tonight
given recent rains.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
The 4th of July is actually looking rather pleasant at this point,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and partly cloudy skies. With
dewpoints remaining in the 60s, it should feel a bit more
comfortable outside compared to the last few weeks.
Thunderstorms will then increase again heading into Sunday, as a
warm front lifts back north toward the area. Thunderstorms should be
scattered in nature Sunday and Sunday night, but by Monday,
convection should become rather widespread as a shortwave over the
Dakotas pushes a front south toward the area. This front looks like
it may stall out in the vicinity of southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas Monday night into Tuesday, as the overall upper
level pattern becomes more zonal. It`s still too early to talk
specific rainfall amounts, but given already saturated soils, it
won`t take much to result in renewed flooding, and this will need to
watched closely over the next few days.
Daily thunderstorm chances will then continue through the remainder
of the 7 day forecast. Right now it appears that temperatures will
start to increase toward the end of the workweek, as upper level
ridging builds east across Texas. This may result in temperatures
returning to or above average by next weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
Another day of unsettled weather is expected across the region.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through much of the day,
shifting to the south of the area late this afternoon into this
evening. For the next few hours, expect patchy MVFR visibility and
ceilings in the IFR/MVFR range. A gradual improvement is expected
through the day, though MVFR visibility and ceilings will be
common with any rain showers.