Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 062315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0513 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A tight pressure gradient will set up across the area from tonight
into Sunday as another quick moving shortwave approaches and moves
through the area. Again, this system should move through dry with
dry low levels in the atmosphere. We are also expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but expecting some gusty surface
winds on Sunday, out of the west.


Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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