Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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046
FXUS63 KSGF 261735
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Thunderstorms were able to congeal into a line overnight and march
east across most of the Missouri Ozarks. The progress of this line
of storms has thrown a wrench into the forecast for today.

The severe thunderstorm threat for later today and this evening
has become rather unclear. It is likely that the cold pool
established with this line will make it all of the way through the
eastern Ozarks. This alone will make destabilization difficult,
especially if trailing stratiform precipitation and cloud cover
remain. Additionally, a cold front currently extending from west-
central Missouri through eastern Oklahoma will slowly move east
today. This front should actually accelerate a bit this morning as
a frontal wave moves off to the northeast into central Missouri.

Thus, we believe that the main threat for severe storms will occur
over portions of far south-central Missouri with the greatest
threat to the south and east of the Missouri Ozarks. Damaging
straight line winds will be the primary potential severe weather
hazard. We are also going to hold onto a limited flooding risk
today as we could see a few of the typical low water crossings go
under. However, we did decide to cancel the Flash Flood Watch as
the threat for training thunderstorms (and flash flood potential)
has diminished.

Temperatures today will be a mess with the cold front passing
through along with showers and thunderstorms around. Steady or
slowly falling temperatures are expected behind the cold front
with high temperatures occurring in the morning over many
locations.

Showers and thunderstorms will then exit the region tonight as an
upper level trough axis pushes east across the area. Lows tonight
will be rather chilly with areas along and north of the I-44
corridor dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Thursday still looks like a quiet day before a very wet pattern
sets up across the region to end the week. A weak storm system
will move across the area from Thursday night into Friday and will
bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

The large scale pattern will then feature an amplifying
southwesterly flow aloft over the Missouri Ozarks as we get into
the upcoming weekend. A baroclinic zone will sharpen up from
southwest to northeast across the region with heavy rainfall
developing along and north of this zone from Friday night into
Sunday.

At this time, it looks like the heaviest axis of rainfall
will occur from northwestern Arkansas through southern Missouri
and into southern Illinois. This area could see a swath of 4-6"
rainfall amounts with locally higher amounts possible. Areas of
central Missouri may still pick up a solid 3-5" of rainfall. Top
analog matches from the St. Louis University CIPS Analog Guidance
also continue to support this forecast. Needless to say, flooding
will be a big concern as we head into the weekend.

Depending on where that front sets up, there will also be the
potential for strong to severe storms from Friday into the
weekend. Locations along and south of that front will stand the
best potential for severe storms. However, locations just north of
the front may have enough elevated instability for some hail
potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: An area of showers with a few
embedded isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread east
across the area this afternoon ending from west to east by this
evening.

IFR to LIFR ceilings will occur this afternoon into tonight. The
KJLN TAF sites should start to clear late tonight with the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites not clearing until Thursday morning. A lowering
in visibility will also be possible within the heavier showers
this afternoon.Fog will also be possible at the TAF sites late
tonight into early Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise



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