Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130818
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
318 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Warm advection based persistent patchy light rain to be initial
forecast challenge. Wavy flow aloft has provided some support
however very weak low level flow suggests any additional shortwave
support to be minimal and existing showers to diminish by early
morning in line with the HRRR.

Isolated TSRA development later this afternoon cannot be ruled out
but again identifying a shortwave to support lift is a challenge.

Easterly winds will dominate most of the day today keeping temps
unclimatologically cool...with the mercury only climbing a few
degrees higher then on Monday as thicknesses show limited
response.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM Sun Aug 13 2017

Temperatures will rebound closer to normal levels during the
middle of the week as the upper flow turns a bit more to the
southwest. This will also support a better chance for TSRA as lee
side cyclogenesis occurs and the surface low moves across the
Central Plains Wednesday into Thursday.

Models are then showing differences late in the workweek into the
weekend leading to lowered confidence for the development of any
significant waves/precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Stratocumulus deck has spread northward through SW MO late this
evening. Some model guidance suggests potential for lower end MVFR
CIGS later tonight however confidence is not sufficient to carry
this as a predominant group at this time.

Widely scattered light showers will persist from time to time
overnight into early Sunday. This activity will be best tied to
ill defined shortwaves caught in zonal flow. There will be modest
instability available for the next wave Sunday afternoon to add
VCTS at KBBG.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels



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