Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192318
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
518 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

An upper low centered over central KS will move northeast with a
trailing shortwave moving through our area. The bulk of the warm
sector/warm air advection precipitation will affect areas east and
southeast of the cwfa, but some pockets of light rain along
with widespread low stratus/fog/drizzle will hang back over the
area tonight and early Friday. Dense fog is a good bet (already
1/4sm at KUNO). Short term guidance hits areas southeast of the
plateau (south central MO) hardest. A fog advisory is a good bet,
but coordination is still pending.

In the wake of the passage of the shortwave, guidance warms us up
nicely on Friday. This will be tied to how fast the stratus/fog can
clear. Progged soundings from the GFS keep stratus and KSGF before
clearing. Even just partial sunshine should warm us well into the
50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fri night-Saturday: Another upper level shortwave will take a
similar path to the one over our region now, moving from western
KS late Fri northeast into western IA by Sat morning. Deeper low
level moisture will be on our eastern cwfa border and points east
during this time, so really just looking at unseasonably warm and
dry weather.

Sat night-Sunday: There is pretty good agreement with another
shortwave moving east into the Arklatex region by 12z/6am Sunday.
Most guidance has the northern extent of rain moving through the
southern cwfa. Could be a few embedded thunderstorms but the more
active convective weather will stay off to our south.

Sunday night-Mon: Quiet and mild with an upper level ridge and
associated sfc ridge moving through. Can`t rule out some late
night shallow fog with light sfc winds.

Tue-Thu: An active/progressive pattern will continue with fair
agreement on another system/sfc low moving through Tue. Limited
moisture return will keep weather related impacts limited/nil
with low or limited precip chances. Colder, but fairly normal
temperatures for January are then expected Wed-Thu with dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Models are continuing to show a good bet for fog redevelopment
tonight...and dense fog in most locations. So will continue trend
of bringing back low stratus and fog during the evening with
mostly dense fog overnight. Conditions should improve by late
morning with all 3 taf sites coming back into VFR during the
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MOZ082-083-091-092-
     095>098-103>106.

     Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-102.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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