Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Showers and thunderstorms continue to track south across far
southern Missouri early this morning. This activity will continue
to slowly sag south this morning, with the storms and heavier
showers expected to spread south and come to an end across the
area early this morning.

An upper level disturbance is currently moving across Kansas
early this morning and will track across the area today. Some
light showers will be possible at times across southeastern Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks from west to east this morning into this

Cooler conditions will occur today as highs warm into the 50s. An
upper level ridge will spread across the Plains today and
tonight. As the ridge starts to spread east into the area, warm
air advection and isentropic lift will develop across the region
allowing some light rain or drizzle to develop this evening
through tonight. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to middle 40s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Warmer condition will occur on Thursday as highs generally warm
into the lower to upper 70s with the upper level ridge over the

An upper level low will track into and across the southern Plains
Friday and Friday night then across the region Saturday and
Saturday night. There is still questions on the exact track and
timing of this system, but it will affect the area and bring
better widespread shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.
Gusty southerly winds will develop Friday ahead of the system as
30 to 40 mph wind gusts are expected.

The southerly winds will bring an increase in moisture and
instability to the area leading to the potential for some strong
to severe storms mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Showers and
a few storms will linger across the area through the day Saturday
as the low tracks through the region.

The system on Friday will start a more active weather pattern for
the region as a series of shortwave troughs will then sweep
through the area later this weekend with another system early to
mid next week. These systems will bring additional shower and
storm chances to the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR flight conditions are expected through the afternoon and into
the evening hours at all the TAF sites. Easterly winds initially
will become more southeasterly as the evening wears on leading to
an increase in low level moisture. Winds will remain over 12
knots for much of the period, with some gusts to 20 knots. Better
low level saturation occurs over western Missouri where ceilings
at KJLN will likely drop to MVFR for a time late tonight and early
Thursday morning, with these ceilings pushing as far east as
perhaps SGF, although confidence not high on its eastward
progression. Cannot rule out some patchy drizzle or a light shower
in the lower cloud deck. Any lower clouds should mix out by late
morning Thursday.




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