Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KSGF 171747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

It was a quiet and mild night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. An upper level disturbance that passed over
the area yesterday, was exiting to the east into Kentucky and
Indiana.

This feature also forced a frontal system into southern Missouri,
that will continue pressing southward into Arkansas before
completely stalling out.

Models suggests the front stalling along a line from Fayetteville
to around Hardy Arkansas, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing along it. Therefore, we think nearly all locations
should stay dry today across southern Missouri.

Look for temperatures to range from the lower 80s in central
Missouri, to the upper 80s along the Arkansas border. So it`s
going to be a great day for outdoor activities.

Heading into tonight, a disturbance is expected to trigger some
storms across Nebraska. None of the models indicate this
convection making it into southern or central Missouri, therefore
we should stay dry again tonight, with temperatures cooling into
the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

The forecast is looking mostly dry during the Monday through
Saturday period. We will also experience a significant warming
trend toward the end of the  week.

The lone chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday
night into Tuesday morning, as a weak disturbance approaches from
the west. Not all locations are expected to receive rain,
therefore, coverage will be limited Monday night.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, a summertime ridge of high pressure will
begin building from the south. The GFS and the ECMWF are not
nearly as bullish with bringing its center directly over the state
of Missouri. However, temperatures Thursday and Friday should
still warm into the upper 90s in several areas.

The ridge should stay overhead through next weekend, with the
storm track closer to the corn belt. Temperatures in the upper 90s
are anticipated by Thursday and Friday. This could send heat
indices between 100 and 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Stratus wrapping around upper low departing into Illinois has
slowed and August sun appears to be winning out. BBG will have a
couple more hours of MVFR then all three TAF sites will be VFR
into the night. Extent of fog and maybe even the development of
low stratus at SGF and BBG as temperatures cool to critical
levels before weak warm advection resumes in the morning.

A few TSRA may be possible along the remnant frontal boundary near
the Arkansas border late this afternoon into this evening though
confidence in coverage precluded noting in TAFs at this time.
Would expect IFR and maybe even LIFR conditions later tonight in
Branson if the activity were to reach this area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Runnels






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.