Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021141

641 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

No big changes to the overall forecast. The upper level shear axis
that helped focus isolated afternoon convection yesterday remains,
but has weakened and pushed south and east slightly. Signals for
shower/tstm development don`t look as good today. A shortwave
moving through the upper Midwest looks to be too far north to
affect our area. Went close to persistence for forecast highs,
within a degree or two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Still expect an upper level ridge to build east-northeast into
our region Thu downstream from an impressive shortwave moving
into the west coast. The ridge looks to remain in place through
Sunday. High temperatures will probably edge up a bit with low 90s
being more common area wide.

Eventually as the western shortwave/storm moves ene into the
Dakotas by Sunday night, the upper ridge breaks down somewhat
with some indications of a decaying storm complex trying to move
southeast into eastern KS/MO late Sunday night into Mon.

Beyond Mon into the middle of next week it does look like the
subtropical ridge gets suppressed with upper level westerlies
dipping southward into the central Plains and U.S. Midwest. This
should allow a sfc front to ease southeast into the area with
increased chances for periodic thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 0637 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Persistant high pressure under the upper levee ridge will keep
flight conditions vfr through the forecast TAF period. No impacts
to aviators are anticipated.




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