Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 200008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
708 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

An upper level wave moving across the Central Plains this
afternoon has produced a large area of light rain, currently
stretching from central Kansas southeast into eastern Oklahoma.
This area of precipitation will continue to slowly advance to the
east this evening, making slow progress against the rather dry
airmass currently in place over the area. Many locations should
see very light precipitation this evening into the overnight
hours, though amounts should be under a tenth of an inch. For
some, rain may stay light enough to only generate trace amounts.

That upper low will start to pull east of the area on Friday. A
few lingering light showers or sprinkles may stick around for the
first part of the day, before skies start to clear late in the
afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will remain on the seasonably
cool side, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

By Friday night, upper level ridging will amplify across the High
Plains, with the low level jet increasing across the I-35
corridor in Kansas. Despite rather strong surface capping,
elevated parcels will be relatively unstable across the area,
suggesting that the LLJ may be able to generate one or more areas
of elevated convection across Kansas both late Friday and late
Saturday night. Anything that does develop would likely slide
southeast into at least the western half of the CWA during the
daytime hours. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainly
with PoPs through the weekend, and eventual rain chances will
depend strongly on where and when exactly convection generates.

Temperatures also have the potential to be affected considerably
by convection (or lack thereof) over the weekend, and will likely
be a short term forecast challenge for this time period.

By Monday, confidence then increases that several days of
widespread thunderstorm activity will take shape across the
Central and Southern Plains and Ozarks, as a very moist and
unstable airmass develops at the surface under moderate southwest
flow aloft. Multiple rounds of convection will likely develop
along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary and dry line through at
least the first half of the week. With moderate shear and moderate
to high instability expected, severe weather appears increasingly
likely especially over the western half of the forecast area and
points to the west. That potential will exist through at least mid
week, and perhaps into the end of the week.

In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rain/flooding may
become a concern following the first few rounds of thunderstorms
next week. Right now, that concern appears greatest over western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas, though all will depend on the
eventual track of convection.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

A weak disturbance will move over the region tonight through
Friday morning brigning showers and MVFR to IFR ceilings to the
region. Some periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible around
sunriseas the system begins to lift out of the area. Flight
conditions will slowly improve by late Friday afternoon.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Boxell
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