Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KSGF 260824

324 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A rather active past 24-48 hours across the region. As
anticipated, a messy round of severe and heavy rain affected the
region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Numerous hail reports and
a few wind reports were observed, along with localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding.

Currently, the main band of moderate rainfall has shifted to the
southeast of the region. 925/850mb fronts are moving into the area
at this hour, creating bands of light rain showers which will
progressively move through the area over the next 3 to 6 hours.
Northerly flow continues to settle into the area and a cold air
advection regime is expected over the next 48 hours.

Showers will clear south central Missouri by late this morning and
at least partial clearing is expected for the entire area into
this afternoon. Northerly flow will continue to settle into the
area and a cold air advection regime is expected over the next 48
hours. Temperatures will struggle to warm both today and Friday.
In general, readings will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with
the potential for slightly warmer readings in the west and
slightly cooler readings in the east.

Main story heading into tonight is the passage of a quick
disturbance aloft. Narrow band of mid level frontogenesis will
sweep through the area, entering late this evening and exiting
first thing Friday morning. Temperatures in the column will get
cold enough to support snow, especially overnight tonight. Lift
will be good enough in a very narrow corridor to possibly yield a
light dusting of snow accumulation, however pinpointing any areas
this far in advance is an exercise in futility.

Friday night will likely be a carbon copy of tonight. Another fast
moving shortwave will enter from the northwest during the evening
and exit to the southeast Saturday morning. Mid level
frontogenesis will be elongated/narrow, focusing a bit more on
the eastern half of the outlook area. Once again, lift will be
good enough in a narrow corridor to support a dusting of snow
accumulation on grassy surfaces.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Northwest flow aloft will persist over the area this weekend,
relaxing a bit heading into next week. A warming trend will
commence on Saturday and persist into at least early next week,
with readings return to at/just above average levels. Another
shortwave passage is possible on Sunday/Sunday night and have
maintained low chance PoPs for this time frame.

00z suite of model output is in a little better agreement this
morning, though there continues to be some differences in handling
smaller scale features. GFS remains a lone wolf with rain chances
Monday night through Tuesday night and have kept PoPs near climo
(slight chance). A better chance for rain enters the picture
during mid week. The upper level pattern flattens a bit and a
cold front slides into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper level shortwave beginning to drop southeast late this
evening and we were starting to see back edge of precipitation
move into the western CWA. May still see some light rain behind
this clearing line and will carry vicinity wording for showers for
a few hours after the clearing. Will continue to carry some
thunder at BBG for a few hours with this final wave of moderate
rainfall as a few strikes are occurring over Barry/McDonald
counties. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue for much of the
overnight hours as the colder air moves in...with conditions
improving Thursday morning into VFR.




AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.