Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 172342
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

No big changes planned. A few storms have developed along a sfc
front from central KS into nw MO/southern IA. HRRR indicates
strong instability ahead of the front this evening 3000-4000 j/kg
mlcape with a strong wind/hail threat. The wind threat will
increase as storms organize into a line along the front later this
evening. Timing? Could see storms into our nw counties by 9-10 pm,
but will monitor. Would anticipate a convective/svr tstm watch
before that time, but nothing has been coordinated as of yet.
Watches are out to the west and northwest.

Heat advisory will expire at 7 pm. Never really panned out with
cloud cover today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cirrus shield which remained from overnight thunderstorms has
acted to keep temperatures a bit cooler early this afternoon.
However, this shield continues to thin out and shift south. Thus,
temperatures will have no problem creeping up into the upper 80s
and lower 90s by late this afternoon. Meanwhile, dew points are
also recovering after the morning storms with some moisture
pooling noted along the I-35 corridor in Kansas. Expectations are
for dew points to rise a degree or two as we get into late this
afternoon. Overall, we have lowered expected maximum heat indices
3-5 degrees over most areas. With that being said, we will be
dropping the Excessive Heat Warning and replacing that area with a
Heat Advisory. We will also trim a bit off of the existing Heat
Advisory.

Meanwhile, our eyes will be peeled on the I-70 corridor from late
this afternoon into this evening. Explosive thunderstorm
development will occur as a cold front translates south across
that area. Extreme instability and high theta-e differentials
between the surface and 10 kft agl will support strong cold pools
and very gusty winds with these storms as they congeal into a
line. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph appear quite possible as this
squall line quickly moves south into central Missouri later this
evening. We may also see some large hail with a few of the
stronger updrafts.

This line will then continue to quickly move south and is expected
to reach the I-44 corridor somewhere in the 10 PM to 2 AM time
frame. By this time, these storms will be strongly outflow
dominant and should begin to slowly weaken. That slow weakening
trend will then continue as these storms push into south-central
Missouri late tonight. While these storms will be rather
progressive, we will have to watch west-central Missouri and
southeastern Kansas for a flash flood risk given the recent heavy
rainfall across that area.

Showers and thunderstorms will then end from north to south across
the Ozarks on Sunday as that cold front shifts south of the
region. A cooler and drier air mass will also begin filtering into
the area with highs Sunday afternoon around 80 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft will set up over the region early next
week with surface high pressure building in from the Plains. This
will result in a dry start to the work week along with below
normal temperatures.

The upper level flow will flatten a bit by midweek which will
result in a slow return to heat and humidity. Highs by Wednesday
should again push the 90 degree mark. We may see a few weak
ripples of energy ride through the region from mid to late week.
These could provide a chance at more showers and storms, however
confidence is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will bring strong thunderstorms
into the area early in the taf period with strong winds and areas
of mvfr/ifr visibility in heavy showers. Showers/tstms will linger
behind the wind shift for a period of time, and will need to
monitor for lower cat cloud ceilings, but for now ceilings are
vfr. Should see drier air and vfr conditions for latter portions
of the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-
     088-089-093-094.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DSA
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA



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