Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 030223 AAB

923 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2015

Issued at 922 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection continues to move into northern Missouri at this hour.
Storm mode has transition from cellular to a more linear/bowing
segment. The airmass to the south of this activity is more stable
as compared to northern Missouri. That said, the trend for cells
to organize do maintain a risk of cold pool production and a
longer life span. Will continue to monitor radar/observation
trends and potentially increase PoPs across central Missouri.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection has struggled mightily to fire in the airmass across
the region so far today. There has been a lone shower in
Texas/Shannon county, otherwise the cumulus field has begun to
shrink. Unless additional activity can fire in the next hour,
chances for rain in the near term are quite low.

We are watching convection firing to our north across Iowa and
Nebraska. Recent HRRR runs push a decaying line of showers into
central Missouri around/after midnight. If the cells to the north
can congeal and organize a cold pool, such a solution is
plausible. However, there are some negatives. The airmass overhead
is on the dry side and considerably less unstable. After sunset,
this airmass will only get more stable, so support for convection
will be tied to any organization/outflow boundary potential. For
now, will keep PoPs as is and watch incoming soundings and


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Seasonable summertime conditions are underway across the region this
afternoon, as temperatures warm into the low 90s.  Dewpoints,
especially along the higher terrain of the Plateau, have been able
to mix down into the low to mid 60s, keeping humidity levels fairly
comfortable by early August standards.

A few isolated thunderstorms aren`t entirely out of the question
this afternoon across south central Missouri, but most locations
should remain dry through sunset.  Anything that does develop this
afternoon is expected to dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of
daytime heating.

A frontal boundary associated with a shortwave moving through the
Great Lakes will move south toward the region tomorrow, though at
this point it appears that it will stall out just north and east of
the CWA.  Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary tomorrow, but it`s very much in question how far south
activity will make it before fizzling out. For now will maintain
slight chance PoPs along the northern and eastern periphery of the
forecast area.  For most of the region tomorrow should be very
similar to today, with highs again in the low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Rain chances will then begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening, as shortwave undercuts the upper level ridge and moves east
across the Great Plains toward the area. One or more complexes of
storms are expected to develop and move toward/through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low level jet develops over
southern Kansas and Oklahoma.  Along with the actual MCS(s), remnant
MCVs and/or outflow boundaries likely adding complexity to the
overall picture.  Any severe weather threat will be highly
conditional on clearing and associated destabilization, and this is
a short term forecast issue that likely won`t become clear until at
least Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Additional storms will then be possible Thursday during the
afternoon, as well as again that night as the LLJ ramps up over the
region.  Thunderstorm chances will likely persist into at least part
of the day on Friday.

Temperatures during the latter portion of the workweek should remain
around or just below average, as convection and cloud cover keep
things from heating up too much.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light tonight, becoming southwesterly during the day Monday. Aside
from some mid/high level cloud cover, no sensible weather of any
significance is expected.




LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.