Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
1220 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Very mild conditions are again occurring across the area early
this morning as a very warm air mass for mid October is over the
region. Early morning temperatures are currently in the upper 60s
to the lower 70s and will not drop all that much more tonight.
These warm temperatures will likely break many record maximum
lows across the area this morning.

Highs today will likely be a tad bit warmer this afternoon as they
were on Sunday afternoon as 850mb temperatures will be a little
warmer. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s
this afternoon under the ridge of high pressure that will be over
the area. Heat index values will be in the lower to middle 90s
across the area. This summer like air mass will result in record
highs being in jeopardy again this afternoon. Please see the
climate section below for more information on record highs and
record warm lows.

The pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the area
this morning and afternoon and will result in a windy day across
the area, stronger than the last few days. Southerly winds of 20
to 30mph with 30 to 40mph can be expected later this morning into
the afternoon. The strongest winds will occur along and north of
the I-44 corridor where a few gusts as high of 45mph are not out
of the question in spots. At this time winds are expected to
remain just below Wind Advisory criteria so will not issue one at
this time.

A mild night will once again be in store across the area tonight
into Tuesday morning as lows again only cool into the 60s to
around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A cold front will sag south into the area late tonight into
Tuesday. This front will not bring a big drop in temperatures as
the upper level support remains to the west during the day on
Tuesday. The upper level ridge of high pressure will spread off to
the east and 850mb temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday
as a result. As a result temperatures will be slightly cooler on
Tuesday than today and yesterday, but will still be well above
normal, as they top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Some sprinkles will be possible along the front Tuesday morning
into the afternoon hours, but with a cap in place across the area
and no upper level support the over all measurable rain chances
will be low during the day Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday an upper level trough will dig across
the Plains then into and through the region. As the trough
approaches the area showers and thunderstorms develop near the
front. Deep layer shear will increase across the area with the
approach of the upper level trough, but instability will not be
overly strong and the front will be across the area much of the
area. As a result no widespread severe weather is expected.  The
better rain chances will generally be along and south of I-44
closer to the front. Showers and few storms will remain possible
across mainly southern Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but will kick off to the east fairly quickly. A cooler
air mass will spread into the area for late this week as highs in
the 60s are expected Thursday and Friday.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the plains
this weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s both
afternoon`s this weekend ahead of the approaching ridge.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions with gusty southwest winds will continue for the
next 0-6 hours at all three TAF sites. Gusts up to 35kts during
the afternoon are expected to diminish to around 15-25kts after
sunset, but if this diminishment does not occur, then there will
be a 4-6 hour window where LLWS becomes a concern due to the
strong winds aloft. Expect a wind shift at the surface after
18/12z when a cold front moves through the region. The front is
expected to stall across the region near the end of or just
beyond the valid TAF period. Depending on where the front stalls,
the winds at KBBG may become light/variable invof the stalled
front rather than W/NW after fropa.


Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs
and also record warm lows for Today (October 17th) and Tuesday
October 18th.

Record Highs:

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953

October 18th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     87              2005
Joplin          90              2005
Vichy/Rolla     86              1953
West Plains     89              1953

Record Warm Lows:

October 17th:

City          Record Warm Low  Year

Springfield     63              1971
Joplin          65              1994
Vichy/Rolla     63              1998
West Plains     65              1998

October 18th:

City          Record Warm Low   Year

Springfield     65              1971
Joplin          64              1985
Vichy/Rolla     63              1971


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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