Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 061115
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 129 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Light to moderate rain continues early this morning along and
south of a Branson to Rolla line, north of storm system moving
across southern Arkansas. Precipitation should by large come to
an end across the CWA by or shortly after daybreak. Patchy fog
will also remain possible across the area, though impacts are
expected to remain limited.

To our northwest, a cold front is pushing southeast through
northern Missouri and central Kansas, and will sweep across the
area this morning. Northwest winds will be gusty through the day
today, with temperatures topping out around 40 degrees. Some post
frontal clearing is expected by afternoon, and drier air advects
southeast.

With high pressure building south and winds settling down tonight,
overnight lows should drop into the mid 20s by early Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 129 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Our first decent shot at measurable snow is still on track for
Wednesday. The setup is actually quite interesting. A broad upper
level trough will be carved out from the northern Rockies into the
Great Lakes. Short wave energy will translate east along the
southern flank of this trough across the central Plains into the
Missouri Ozarks from Wednesday into Wednesday night. The presence
of this short wave energy and of a favorably positioned upper
level jet streak will provide good mid and upper level
lift...especially from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

In the lower levels of the atmosphere, another cold front will
pass through the region during the day on Wednesday. This will
likely result in steady or falling afternoon temperatures.
Meanwhile, lift in lower portions of the atmosphere will be on the
increase throughout the day Wednesday as that post frontal cold
dome deepens over the area and frontogenesis increases in the
750-650 mb layer. This should result in increasing chances for
snow from northwest to southeast across the area. We could
initially see some rain or mixed precipitation as wet-bulbing
takes place with surface temperatures initially in the middle to
upper 30s. However, mainly all snow is expected by early evening
(if not sooner).

The setup actually appears to be quite favorable for banded snow.
Inspection of model cross sections indicates slantwise
instability will be available immediately above the 700 mb level.
While bands of snow will likely shift from northwest to southeast
(versus training over the same location), they may still produce
brief bursts of fairly heavy snow over a given location. If,
when, and where such bands set up will be a shorter term forecast
challenge. At this point, we believe that most of the area will
see a dusting to a half inch of snowfall. Some locations may see
around an inch if they receive one or two of these bands. Most of
the snow should end by midnight or shortly thereafter as the main
lift weakens and shifts east of the region.

Meanwhile, north to northwest winds will steadily increase from
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as strong cold air
advection commences. Low temperatures will fall into the teens
with Thursday morning wind chills around the zero degree mark.
Strong high pressure will then slowly build southeast into the
region through Thursday night resulting in dry weather and cold
conditions. High temperatures on Thursday will not make the
freezing mark with lows Thursday night falling into the 10-15
degree range. It is quite possible that temperatures get even
colder if there is snow on the ground.

We will then see a warming trend into the weekend as southerly
winds return. Global models indicate another upper level system
moving into the region later this weekend and perhaps into next
Monday. With the track of this system still in question, we have
kept PoPs in the 20-40% range. Temperatures profiles (and
precipitation type) are a tough call at this point. Thus, we have
gone with a rain/snow mix for now. Temperatures from late this
weekend into early next week look fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

IFR and LIFR cigs and vis will continue for a couple of hours this
morning as a cold front passes through the area. These
restrictions should lift within a couple hours of sunrise, giving
way to gusty northwest winds through the day today. VFR conditions
should then prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell


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