Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 150529
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1129 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

...Update to Aviation for 6Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The going forecasts looks as though it remains on track with
little change noted in the models and forecasts initialization.
Ongoing precipitation on regional radars was remaining mostly
south of the freezing line across southern Missouri. The freezing
line at midday was generally laid out from Neosho to Bolivar to
Salem. The dip south into southwestern Missouri continues to be in
response to the inverted trough which has nosed into southern
Missouri helping to bring warmer temperatures to Branson and West
Plains and aid in pushing the freezing line to the north slightly
today.

The upper level storm system that is driving the weather across
the region will continue to dig across old Mexico and slowly make
the turn north this evening and overnight. As it does, it will
begin to develop a negative tilt. This will have implications
more for the start of the work week. For tonight, it will kick
upper level energy into the plains and aid in increasing the
coverage of precipitation across the plains and into Missouri.
Global and medium scale models begin to expand and strengthen the
precipitation that is moving across northern Texas, Oklahoma and
Missouri and spread it north across Kansas. Northerly winds will
continue to work against the warm nose aloft but will have the
most success across eastern Kansas and into central Missouri.

As a result of the increasing precipitation and placement of the
freezing line, additional light accumulations of ice remain
expected this evening into Sunday morning. As a result, most of
the southern portion of the Ice Storm warning will likely be able
to expire at 6 PM as expected. Some minor changes may be needed
where the cold air may linger longer and will look closely at the
southern edge of the warning and where the freezing line will
potentially be overnight. Will continue the northern portion of
the Ice Storm Warning into Sunday, but may add some area to the
warning that continues through the night where the freezing line
is forecast to remain.

Fog will again be a concern overnight as dew point depression
remain near zero despite southerly winds as low stratus builds
down. Will need to monitor this evening for the potential for
dense fog, though thinking that the rain will limit how dense the
fog may be as once it starts raining the stratus should lift.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

By Sunday night the negatively tilted closed upper level low will
have crossed the Rio Grande and begun to move to the Northeast
across Texas. This may bring a break in the precipitation for part
of Sunday afternoon into the evening. The models finally lift the
cold air north and out of the Ozarks as the storm system moves
across the plains but bring precipitation back into the western
portions of Missouri and Southeastern Kansas after midnight into
Monday Morning.

The storm system maintains its negative tilt as it moves to the
Northeast across the plains and will bring the potential for
thunderstorms across the area during the day Monday. Instability
will be limited so no severe storms are expected but most of
southern Missouri and Southeastern Kansas will likely hear
thunder through the day Monday.

Models are in good agreement with finally lifting the storm system
north of the region and pulling its precipitation with it Monday
night, leaving dry weather in its wake for the middle of next
week.

A deep upper level trough will linger from the Great Lakes and
southwestward once again into old Mexico in the wake of the storm
system before models begin to fill it and slide a weakening
through across the plains Thursday. This occurs as another upper
level trough moves across the Rockies towards the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

LIFR conditions will continue to persist across the region
tonight and through the day Sunday as a storm system remains
southwest of the area.

A large area of rain is currently moving east through the area
and will continue to track through the region into Sunday
morning. Temperatures at KJLN remain below freezing so freezing
rain can be expected overnight there. Temperatures will warm above
freezing at KJLN Sunday morning, when rain or drizzle will then
occur. Above freezing temperatures will occur at KSGF and KBBG
with all rain or drizzle expected.

Fog will also be possible tonight at the TAF sites with dense fog
possible at times at the KBBG site.

The rain will end from west to east Sunday morning. Low clouds
will remain over the area with drizzle possible at time through
rest of the TAF period.

Another wave or rain, will start to approach from the west Sunday
evening. By this time temperatures will be above freezing across
all the TAF sites with all rain expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ082-090>092-
     094.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-088-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise


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