Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180446
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1146 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)

A Pacific cold front was shifting across southwest Missouri this
afternoon. This feature will bring in a slightly cooler and drier
airmass for tonight and Saturday.

We can not completely rule out a shower or isolated thunderstorm.
However, mixed layer inhibition is over 100 j/kg south of the
front, due to a strong elevated mixed layer in place. Therefore
it may be difficult to trigger any updrafts in our environment
this afternoon and evening.

For tonight, look for lows to range from the upper 30s to the
upper 40s. North breezes along with passing clouds will also be
observed.

Fantastic conditions for outdoor activities will be observed on
Saturday. Look for highs to range from middle 60s to the lower
70s. No rain chances are expected during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)

As a warm front moves back northward through Missouri, a few
showers are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Although
conditions should completely dry up by Sunday afternoon as a warm
Gulf airmass surges back into the area. Highs on Sunday will range
from the middle 60s in eastern Ozarks, to near 80 out toward
Joplin and Neosho.

Upper ridging builds across the nations midsection through much
of the work week, with a few passing shortwave troughs riding
through the mean ridge. Models suggest convective activity will
be possible with each passing shortwave. Timing these types of
waves this far out is difficult, so will keep POPS within a
reasonable range through the week.

A larger storm system is slated to approach by Thursday into
Thursday night. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have been consistent
with this signal. Therefore late next work week could be our next
decent chances for widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR will continue through the next 24 hours for all TAF sites
across the area. Winds will be mainly northerly to northeasterly
less than 10 knots. No aviation hazards are expected at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin



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