Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230504 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Forecast updated to account for recent radar/observation trends.

Overall the forecast is on track. 00z suite of model output is
coming in at this time and generally supports the going forecast.
The WRF/NAM is a bit more aggressive with developing a broader
area of shower activity across the western/southwestern portions
of the area late tonight and into the daylight hours of Saturday
morning. Recent runs of the HRRR/RUC indicate isolated/scattered
activity, with the incoming GFS generally supporting this idea.

Moisture/lift/instability-wise, there are no dominate players to
key in on. Instability is negligible, with perhaps a hundred or
two of most unstable CAPE by Saturday morning. Aloft, shortwave
ridging is building over the area, noted by a retreating upper
level jet to our north and height rises in the mid levels. In the
lower levels, there is a weak/broad low level jet and gradual
theta-e advection. This will certainly act to (gradually) increase
moisture levels with time and support a "speckly" coverage of
showers as we progress through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning. Not unlike what is being observed across southeastern
Oklahoma at this time.

As a result, have only made minor tweaks to the going PoPs and
added a mention of drizzle along/west of I-49. Temperatures have
been a bit tricky with some pockets of clearing, and have updated
readings to account of varying trends based on cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Complex and challenging forecast for the next 24 hours. See update
section above for specific thoughts on the short term forecast.
JLN will be prone to brief bouts of MVFR cigs the rest of tonight,
otherwise VFR will be the rule with cigs gradually lowering.
Heading into Saturday, a smattering of light showers is possible
near the aerodromes, but the bulk of any organized rain/thunder
will remain to our west. This will change Saturday evening as the
eastern edge of developing showers/storms will approach the JLN
aerodrome. VFR will be the rule Saturday into Saturday evening,
with MVFR potential increasing at JLN after dark.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan




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