Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 112137
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0243 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Another in a series of upper level disturbances will drop
southeast across the region tonight. A band of light snow and
flurries will accompany this feature. Right now, it appears that
the best 700-750 mb frontogenesis will remain just to the
northeast of the area. However, we do feel that a quick shot of
light snow will be possible around Rolla...especially as the
left-exit region of an upper level jet streak overspreads the
area. We are not expecting any accumulation at this point.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected for the remainder of the area
tonight with lows ranging from the lower 20s across the eastern
Ozarks to the upper 20s along the I-49 corridor.

As that upper level disturbance begins to depart, a surface cold
front will push through the Ozarks Friday morning. Winds will
shift to the north and increase throughout the day. High
temperatures will be tricky with temperatures expected to fall in
the afternoon as cold air advection really kicks in. We should see
a good temperature gradient with highs ranging from the upper 30s
across central Missouri to the upper 40s near the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0243 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Canadian high pressure will slide southeast across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley on Saturday. This will result in a dry day
with yet another strong temperature gradient across the area.
Highs across central Missouri will struggle into the lower and
middle 20s while areas near the Oklahoma border push the 40 degree
mark.

Upper level energy will then dig southeast across the central
Plains Saturday night and emerge across northern and central
Missouri on Sunday. Models have trended towards a more aggressive
"warm nose" with this energy as a strong low level jet develops.
Besides light snow, this warm nose brings the potential for light
freezing rain and sleet into play on Sunday. We will also have to
watch the late Saturday night time frame for a possible earlier
onset, but there will be some moistening that needs to be done to
the atmosphere. By Sunday afternoon, there is then the potential
for plain old rain across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas as temperatures warm. However, confidence in
thermal profiles still remains low with this system.

Our message will therefore remain "a light wintry mix" for late
this weekend with minor accumulations of snow and very minor
accumulations of ice possible.

Models then diverge from Sunday night into Monday as another short
wave trough digs across the region. Models are indicating the
potential for surface low development across the Lower Mississippi
Valley with a shield of precipitation spreading back into the
area. However, confidence in this scenario is low given the lack
of model consistency.

The large scale northwesterly flow will then begin to relax early
next week. This will result in a warming trend...although a weak
cold frontal passage may knock temperatures down for a brief
period. Overall, highs in the 50s look increasingly likely with a
day of 60s not out of the question as we approach mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies and
light easterly to southeasterly winds less than 10 knots can be
expect.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin


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