Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 041412 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
912 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Issued at 912 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Forecast updated to account for increasing stratus from east to
west. Sky cover was tweaked slightly to account for trends. There
remains some question as to just how far west this cloud cover
will extend. Further updates may be necessary based on how much
influence incoming dry air will be on the western periphery of the
cloud cover.

Temperatures were trended downward a few degrees across the
eastern half of the area. Clouds should stick around most (if not
all) of the day, limiting warming potential. Have adjusted highs
to the upper 50s to around 60.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Another day of below normal temperatures will be noted across the
region due to the continued influence of the cyclonic flow around
the very slow moving southeast US upper low. Satellite early this
morning depicting stratus poised to enter the eastern CWA before
dawn and advect westward toward Highway 65 this morning and have
adjusted highs to fit this expectation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Medium range model output continue to keep southwest US as a
closed system which will slow its eastward progression long enough
for a shortwave in the northern stream to become the more major
player in the midweek time frame.

Before then...low level flow to shift to the south as the
southeast upper flow departs into the Atlantic Tuesday. This will
warm temperatures above seasonable normals before a cold front
associated with the aforementioned northern stream wave generates
at least scattered showers and the potential for weak
thunderstorms region wide Thursday lasting into Friday over south
central MO.

00Z Models continue to produce diverse solutions with the upper
low in the longer range. Expectation is for lift associated with
the system to remain over the Southern Plains...likely keeping
rain out of the picture for the SGF CWA next weekend. This will
need to be monitored however.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 0630 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The leading edge of an area of
MVFR/IFR stratus ceilings is just east of the taf sites and
progressing slowly east. SREF guidance, METSAT trends, and progged
soundings all indicate that the stratus will make it KBBG and KSGF
shortly (13z) and should persist for much of the taf period.
Ceilings should lift, trending toward the VFR category during the
afternoon (18z) before trending back down again tonight.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.