Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 121541 AAA

1041 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

...Updated to add Climate section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It felt like an October night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures fell into the 40s and 50s, under
mostly cloudy skies and northeast breezes.

A Canadian air mass had spread across southern Missouri, which
should remain in place through the weekend. This air mass will
offer cool weather, with highs only in the 60s today and Saturday,
and lows falling into the 40s tonight and Saturday night.

An upper level disturbance is expected to pass over the region
tonight into Saturday morning. None of the models are suggesting
rain with this feature, therefore we have left precipitation
chances out for now.

This upper low will force another shot of Canadian air across the

By Sunday, clearing skies and the return of southerly winds will
facilitate warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs warming into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Another disturbance is expected to approach on Monday. There is a
much better signal for widespread rainfall during the daytime as
moisture and instability will be sufficient for showers and

Another cold front will accompany this wave, with dry air surging
across southern Missouri behind it. We think conditions will stay
dry from Monday night through at least Wednesday night, with very
comfortable weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

There are indications of a decent warming trend beyond Wednesday,
as medium range models hint toward a strong ridge to build across
the Plains. This pattern could boost temperatures back into the
80s late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low end MVFR and IFR ceilings are
common over the region. Some areas of fog (likely drizzle) also
noted over the area. Should see a slow lifting of ceilings, but
remaining mvfr cat, through the taf period. An approaching upper
level disturbance will shift east of the region toward the end of
the taf period, and some improvement in ceilings will occur near or just
after the taf period ends.


Issued at 1038 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A northerly wind and clouds will make it tough for temperatures to
warm much today. The following are record low high temperatures
for today.

Site   Temp    Year
SGF     60     1892
JLN     64     1975
UNO     65     1975
VIH     62     1975




LONG TERM...Cramer
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