Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252027
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...More Storms and Locally Heavy Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






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