Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292001
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

Typical fall conditions were observed over extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 80s, under
a mix of sun and clouds and light winds.

For tonight, lows will range from the middle 50s in the eastern
Ozarks, to the lower 60s out toward Pittsburg and Joplin.

Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, as temperatures warm
back into the low to mid 80s. We do expect an increase in wind
speed on Tuesday, which will blow from the south.

A large storm system will continue to translate eastward
through the week. This feature can be viewed on water vapor,
circulating over the Inter-mountain West. We think this system will
bring stormy conditions to the Ozarks beginning Wednesday morning,
and continuing through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

Increasing moisture underneath height falls are expected for
Wednesday as an upper trough approaches. There will likely be
plenty of isentropic lift to create some warm sector showers
beginning as soon as Wednesday morning.

Models suggest that the better chances for rain Wednesday through
Wednesday night will occur in southeast Kansas and western
Missouri.

Increasing instability will occur ahead of the main belt of
forcing Thursday afternoon. It`s Thursday afternoon and evening
which will be our best period for robust thunderstorms.

I need to mention, that we weighed our forecast heavily toward the
12Z GFS. We collaborated with the model diagnostics forecaster at
WPC, and he recommended utilizing this run, which is slower in
timing, and deeper in structure.

Widespread organized thunderstorms will sweep across southern
Missouri, and exit by mid morning Friday, according to the 12Z
GFS. A cooler and drier airmass will create a fantastic weekend
across the Ozarks.

Look for dry conditions with temperatures in the 70s on an
afternoon basis Friday through Sunday. It should be good for
anyone planning outdoor activities.

Be sure to check back with us through the week for more details
regarding Thursday`s thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Tuesday morning and beyond as high pressure
remains over the region. Winds will be light and variable this
afternoon through tonight as the high is overhead. Winds will then
start to pick up and become more south to southeasterly Tuesday
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise







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