Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Early this morning, a large area of convection extended from
southeast Nebraska, through eastern Kansas and into northeast
Oklahoma. Storms have been weakening over the past several hours as
outflow was racing out ahead of it, but was still producing some 30
to 40 mph wind gusts. Expect this weakening trend to continue as
this area moves east into the the forecast area this morning. At
this time not expecting anything severe, but will continue to
monitor trends. Convection will push east of the area this
afternoon. Not much confidence in any re-development later this
afternoon as atmosphere likely to be worked over by the morning
convection. However, remnant outflow boundaries combined with the
moist and unstable airmass could result in some isolated to widely
scattered storms.

Not much expected overnight tonight as main activity will be
centered further west and north of the area, but cannot rule out an
isolated storm or two through the overnight hours.

Look for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer today with highs
in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Pattern changes very little Thursday with main surface boundary
remaining across western Kansas and southwest flow aloft over the
region. Atmosphere will remain moist and unstable, but no
definitive triggering mechanism to key on outside of remnant
outflow boundaries. Thus, expect convective activity to be
somewhat limited in areal coverage. Will have to watch Thursday
night, as low level jet over Oklahoma and Texas shifts eastward
during the night and may sustain convection over the Kansas and
Nebraska long enough to reach portions of area overnight. Any
severe threat with these would be mainly damaging winds and hail.

Medium range models continue to show a more significant shortwave
trough to lift across southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks
Friday night and Saturday morning. Surface boundary pushes further
westward, but at this time models keep it to our west. None the
less, expect at least a marginal risk for severe weather as ample
shear and instability look to be in place. Flooding also looks to
become a concern given the multiple rounds of thunderstorms leading
up to this.

For Saturday through Tuesday, pattern changes very little with
general troughiness across the west and southwest flow through the
mid section of the country. This will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the period along with a warm and rather
humid period. Certainly not everyday will be a wash out as there
will be some dry periods, and given flow cannot rule out the
potential for some episodes of severe weather as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Clouds are clearing quickly
from west to east behind the convection that occurred this
morning. Gusty winds will occur this afternoon, and may remain
breezy into the overnight hours.

Do not expect much in the way of additional storms across the area this
afternoon even with the sun coming out. Late this afternoon into
this evening additional storms may develop across central Kansas
and may track east into the area tonight. Confidence is not high
that this activity will be able to make it into the area and
affect the TAF sites at this time to include a mention of
convection in the TAFS.

Ceilings may lower overnight but confidence is not high the
ceilings below VFR will occur at this time.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise



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