Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231730
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Another very hot and humid day is expected across the region
today, and heat headlines will continue unchanged. With early
morning temperatures still in the upper 70s to near 80, it won`t
take long for temps to quickly warm into the 90s. Highs today
should again top out between 95 and 100 degrees in most locations.
Heat indices will range from 105 to 110, and other than a few very
isolated thunderstorms along and east of Highway 65, today looks
to be another dry day.

Tonight looks to again feature low temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The upper ridge begins to retrograde a bit on Sunday, which should
allow for a greater concentration of afternoon thunderstorms
along/south of I-44. Temperatures will be ever so slightly cooler
across this area, with readings in the low to mid 90s. But,
slightly higher dewpoints will again result in heat indices
between 103 and 105. Temperatures north of the Interstate will
again reach the mid to upper 90s.

By early Monday morning, the upper ridge looks to recenter over
the southern High Plains, resulting in weak/disorganized zonal to
northwest flow across the forecast area. A series of shortwaves
moving across the I-80 corridor will push a synoptic front south
into the northern part of Missouri, where it will stall for much
of the workweek. Nightly MCS activity will probably result in some
north to south oscillation to the front, as the boundary is
modified by convective outflow and differential heating.

For the Ozarks, this should result in a steady diet of scattered
thunderstorm activity for much of the week. Convective potential
will likely be centered around 1. the remains of overnight
convective complexes and/or 2. afternoon pulse thunderstorm
activity. Widespread severe weather does not seem likely during
this time period, though any given round of thunderstorms could
bring with it a few marginally severe wind gusts, depending on
mesoscale factors.

This increase in precipitation and associated cloud cover will
help knock temperatures back to around climatological norms, which
are around 90 degrees or so this time of year.

Long term guidance suggests a pretty steady state to the overall
synoptic pattern through next weekend, with the upper ridge
remaining centered over the southern High Plains and southern
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
continued high pressure aloft. Some broken cumulus VFR ceilings
may be possible at times over the next few hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA



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