Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 171732
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014
...18Z Aviation Update...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014
We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.
A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.
One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014
High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.
As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.
Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.
Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014
Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014
Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.
Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.