Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 310801

301 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Today will be the best day for outdoor activities area wide with
mostly sunny skies and drier conditions. The upper level wave has
finally moved east of the area and slightly drier air was moving
in in the mid level noted by the latest water vapor imagery. Will
not rule out a very isolated shower or two over the far eastern
Ozarks today and that would be along and east of Highway 63. But
again seasonably hot and sunny skies will be the rule of thumb for
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The next weather system that will bring the area widespread
showers and thunderstorms is currently moving across the western
U.S. into the central Plains region. A pacific front will move out
into the plains area tonight and be just off to our northwest by
tomorrow morning. There will be a round of possible strong
convection to our northwest late tonight but slowly weakening as
it moves into our direction by tomorrow morning. Some of these
weakening showers and storms maybe reach our far northwest
counties by early tomorrow morning.

The front will then setup from southeast Kansas northeastward
through north central Missouri and slowly move southeastward
Monday afternoon and night. With decent daytime heating...highs
near 90...MUCape values will approach 3000 KG/J...Bulk shear will
be around 40 knots...and strong forcing along the front will allow
for a line of storms to develop by late afternoon into the evening
hours and slowly move through the Ozarks. The main threat will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail along with frequent cloud to
ground lightning.

There will be a pool of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture that will
feed into the frontal boundary with PW values between 2 and 2.25
inches. That will be sufficient for some heavy rainfall rates at
times. The front will actually slow down or stall out from west to
east Monday night through Tuesday. The mid level flow will also be
parallel with the front with several impulses riding along.

Several rounds or clusters of storms will be possible Monday
evening through Tuesday night/early Wednesday. With that
said...localized heavy rainfall is possible. Area wide of one to
two inches looks like a good average but some localized areas
especially over southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri could
see up to 3 inches before this system moves out mid week. WPC has
the area highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall
Monday and Tuesday. Something to monitor and see where the rounds
of thunderstorms eventually set up and if there is any training.
The overall good news is that widespread rainfall is coming.

Models indicate that an upper level ridge will develop again over
the southern U.S. by late week. There are some differences on the
placement of that ridge among the GFS and ECMWF. For this forecast
update will keep the weather hot and mostly dry for the late week
time frame with temperatures running about 5 degrees above normal.

A trough may develop over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region and bring down a cold front next weekend. Will bring back
rain chances next weekend and slightly cooler weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Convection ended across the area around 02z with a clearing sky
from west to east. Winds generally staying up still except at BBG
which has gone calm. Many areas received rain today and could see
some patchy fog develop, especially if winds can diminish
overnight. Have dropped both SGF/BBG down into MVFR towards
morning. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions through the remainder
of the period.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.