Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191949
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

...Rain and Isolated Thunder Late Tonight and Tomorrow...Wet and
Stormy For The Weekend into Early Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A shield of rain with isolated thunder has developed across
central Kansas into central Oklahoma this afternoon. This area of
rain will continue to progress eastward and will initially have to
fight off some dry air at the low levels across the Missouri
Ozarks this evening. As the night goes along...light to moderate
rainfall will spread eastward across the entire area especially
after midnight into early tomorrow morning. Rain will be likely
for at least the first half of the day on Wednesday with gradual
tapering off of the rain from northwest to southeast late in the
day. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs tomorrow
possibly not getting out of the 50s for central Missouri and lower
to middle 60s for southern Missouri. Average rainfall will be
about a half an inch over the eastern Ozarks to up to an inch for
the western Ozarks. No severe weather is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Another shot of drier and cooler air tries to move in late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be only in the
middle 60s despite some sunshine Thursday.

A very similar weather pattern that occurred the past few weekends
will set up again for the upcoming weekend into early next week.
An upper level trough will be over the western U.S. with a
southwesterly flow across the central portions of the U.S. Rain
chances start creeping into the area late Friday into Saturday
over the western half of the area. Rain chances will become more
widespread Sunday and Monday...possibly lingering into Tuesday.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms may be possible but as of right
now widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Heavy rainfall
may be a concern and will continue to watch trends for a hydro
issue. Average total rainfall this weekend into early next week
could range from 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts higher of
southeast Kansas into extreme southwest Missouri. Temperatures
will warm up back to near seasonable levels by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today to give way to
deteriorating flight conditions tonight and Wednesday at area
terminals.

An approaching storm system and associated warm front lifting
north will bring lowering cloud decks and widespread rainfall
tonight into Wednesday. Rain will spread from west to east later
this evening into the overnight hours and persist through
Wednesday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible.

Ceilings will lower into the MVFR category late tonight with areas
of IFR ceilings expected Wednesday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster





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