Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
230 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0230 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Rising heights aloft and a steady southwest breeze have allowed
temperatures to slowly rise during the pre-dawn hours this
morning, with 2 AM readings generally in the mid to upper 30s. A
sunny and pleasant day is expected today, with highs in the mid to
upper 50s. Conditions look rather benign again tonight, with lows
in the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0230 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Southerly winds will increase Tuesday, as lee cyclognesis takes
place across the High Plains, with sustained speeds between 15 and
20 MPH, and a few gusts approaching 30 MPH. Temperatures Tuesday
will remain mild, with highs around 60.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low level moisture should
increase enough for stratus to overspread the region from the
south. Moisture will be rather shallow, so suspect that we`ll see
patchy drizzle along with the occasional light rain shower through
much of the day Wednesday. Some fog will also be possible. Moisture
depth and lift will start to improve Wednesday night, with more
widespread shower activity overspreading the area as we head into
Thanksgiving Day. A few thunderstorms may manage to mix into the
rain during the day Thursday.

The heaviest rain should occur from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning, as a slow moving front moves across the region.
Several inches of rain appear possible during this time, and given
that soils are already saturated, will need to keep an eye on the
flood threat in the coming days.

Temperatures will fall into the 40s with the passage of the front,
which right now looks to occur on Friday (though still plenty of
opportunity for timing to shift). Depending on just how quickly
precipitation ends, there may be an opportunity for a rain/snow
mix or a few snow showers on the back end of the precipitation, as
temperatures fall into the low 30s Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday continue to look quite chilly, with
temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Extended guidance is now
indicating the potential of another shortwave moving northeast
toward the region during this time, which could result in yet
another round of precipitation. Right now, it appears that
temperatures will be warm enough for that to fall as rain, though
trends will have to be watched for the potential of some sort of
wintry mix.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites overnight and through the day on Monday as clear
skies and south to southwesterly winds prevail.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Boxell
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