Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

...Confidence in Flooding Rains Increasing Thursday Night into
Friday Night...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

Shallow moisture return has begun and a wide swath of altostratus
has spread across the region over the past few hours. Mid levels
and low levels remain rather dry, as a result this moistening
process is going to take some time. As the day progresses, cloud
bases will eventually lower and we should see a few light showers
or patchy drizzle develop.

Temperatures this morning have responded to the increase in cloud
cover and are generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Nearly steady
temperatures can be expected the rest of tonight given clouds and
a southerly breeze keeping conditions mixed. Warm air advection
today will nudge temperatures back into the upper 50s to low 60s
in most locations in spite of ample cloud cover.

Heading into tonight, moisture will continue to increase on the
heels of gusty southerly winds. A few showers will be possible,
but better forcing looks to remain to our northwest. Low
temperatures will close to average highs with readings in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

00z suite of guidance offers little change to the going forecast.
As discussed yesterday morning, rain will be slow to spread across
the region Thanksgiving Day, focusing more on Kansas and far
western Missouri much of the day. Once the cold front kicks into
gear, rain will overspread the region from west to east from the
mid/late afternoon hours into Thanksgiving Night. Rain, heavy at
times, will continue into Friday as the front eventually clears
the area to the southeast. Rainfall totals through Friday night
will generally be between 2-4" with amounts nearing 5" along the
MO/ARK border, from Branson westward toward Anderson.

With moist antecedent conditions and streamflows running above
average after last week`s rain, have gone ahead and hoisted a
flash flood watch through Friday night. Given current soil
moisture conditions, rises on area creeks/streams/river may be
more quick to respond versus what we observed last week.

We will continue to watch the eventual location of the freezing
line behind this cold front. At this time, the freezing line may
clip far northwestern portions of the area (say from, Fort Scott,
KS to Nevada, MO and points northwest). With lingering light rain
expected, there is an outside shot of a period of (very) light
freezing rain. At this point, confidence is not high enough to
include in the forecast, but it`s a risk worth noting. If
temperatures can indeed reach freezing, ice accretion will likely
be limited to a thin glaze on elevated objects. Will continue to
watch model trends and see how shorter range/higher resolution
models handle the location of the freezing line.

The forecast for this weekend is still a bit uncertain. Larger
scale models have shunted the heavier swath of rainfall a little
to the south. Additional rain is expected, however amounts are
still in question. It is plausible that an extension to a portion
of the flood watch may be necessary. Temperatures will remain
rather chilly. All told conditions will be rather miserable
Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s, a stiff north
wind and off/on rain.

One more final round of rain can be expected as the upper low over
the western CONUS (finally) ejects to the east. The question here
is timing. Sunday? Monday? Perhaps later? At this point, will keep
a mention of rain chances into Monday and wait for a better
consensus before pinpointing when to end rain chances. Seasonable
temperatures are expected Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: A stratus deck has spreads over
the area and will lower into the MVFR range later tonight into
Wednesday morning. Drizzle will also occur as this occurs. MVFR
ceilings will occur through and off and on drizzle will occur
through the day. Ceilings will then lower into the IFR range
Wednesday evening and drizzle will become more widespread.

Gusty south to southeasterly winds will occur through out the TAF
period tonight through Wednesday evening. Low level wind shear
will also occur through the TAF period as strong low level winds
will be across the region.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
     night for MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
     night for KSZ101.



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