Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 181131
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
631 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...12z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

It was a warm and humid early morning across the Missouri Ozarks
and extreme southeast Kansas, with temperatures from the mid 60s
to low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

A surface boundary was stretched out from northeast Arkansas into
southern Illinois with convection having developed along this
boundary. A few of the storms may affect portions of our
southeastern most county...Oregon county, however more stable and
drier air exists behind this boundary and not expecting any
further westward development through the overnight hours.

A challenging convective forecast is upcoming with this next
system and will be the main focus of this forecast package.
Additional storms are expected with a secondary system early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

For today, an east west surface boundary is expected to set up
near the I-70 corridor in central MO with our CWA expected to be
in the warm sector all day. An unstable air mass will develop in
the warm sector over the area today with CAPES of 2000-3000 j/kg
possible. Much of the area will remain dry during the day today
but can`t rule out some widely scattered afternoon convection,
especially closer to the boundary in central MO. The main
convection today will be from central KS into western OK where a
high risk of severe storms is expected. This activity will
eventually spread northeast into the area by mid to late this
evening and overnight. There may be a remnant wind risk in the
western CWA as it pushes in, likely within a linear or line
segment fashion, but it should be in a decaying severity form as
it moves in. There will be enough instability, low level jet
energy and high PW values for convection to persist across the
area overnight however and with the high moisture content, heavy
rain will be a good bet.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

There may be a lull in the activity on Friday after tonight`s
system dissipates or moves east of the area, but again can`t rule
out some scattered activity during the afternoon along any remnant
boundaries. Things should get going again to our west along a cold
front during the afternoon Friday with eventually a squall line
pushing into the area towards sunset and then through the night
into Saturday morning. There will again mainly be a wind risk with
the convection as it moves in and a lower end QLCS tornado risk
with northeastward moving segments.

The front will move through the area on Saturday/Saturday night
with convection eventually ending from west to east by Sunday
morning.

Roughly, we are going with around 1-3 inches of rainfall with this
system, although some areas may see less, and if training of
storms can occur, some locations more. The heavy rain potential on
top of high water tables from the recent flooding rains earlier in
the month will likely lead to some additional flooding along area
streams, rivers, creeks and low lying flood prone areas. However,
the flooding is not expected to be anywhere near what we had a
couple of weeks ago.

After a bit of a break from later in the day Sunday through
Monday, a northwest to southeast moving shortwave will track
through the area Monday night through Tuesday, bringing another
round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

VFR conditions expected through today and into this evening.
Southerly winds will certainly not be as strong as yesterday
(generally less than 10 kts). Clouds will increase later this
evening and overnight. Storms from the west should move
east/northeast tonight/early Friday. Best shot at convection will
be over JLN, though can`t rule out storms over SGF and BBG.
Ceilings and visibilities will drop off into MVFR range in heavier
showers and storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye



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