Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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992
FXUS63 KSGF 290448
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

After a temporary break in the active weather an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday as a broad
upper level trough comes across the southern Rockies.

A backing and increasingly diffluent flow will along with
strengthening isentropic upglide will cause elevated convection to
break out across southern and portions of the central plains
through tonight. This activity will migrate northward into the
Ozarks region heading into Friday morning with an increasing
coverage through the day. Expect rather widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Marginal instability will preclude any
threat of severe storms Friday but lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

The showers and embedded storms will persist into Friday night as
the upper level system pushes slowly east. The associated warm
front will be lifting north toward the area as surface
cyclogenesis takes place across the Plains. The progression of
this warm front and evolution will have to be monitored as it will
impact the potential for stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

The warm front will lift north into the region Saturday as the
upper level trough edges eastward into the Plains. Models differ
on the placement of the developing surface low and warm front. The
WRF suggest the warm sector spreads into the Ozarks region
Saturday which would pose a conditional risk for severe weather.
In any event scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday
but the potential for severe storms will have to be monitored.

The upper level trough will fill and make its way east across the
central U.S. on Sunday. This will maintain considerable cloud
cover and possibly some lingering showers.

Another upper level trough is progged to slide east and southeast
from the Rockies early next week. This system will track farther
south but could bring scattered showers to far southern Missouri
on Tuesday.

Looks like mostly dry weather will transpire during the middle and
later part of the week but models differ on the strength of the
upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue overnight with broken high clouds and
light northeast surface winds.

A low pressure system will then approach the area on Friday with
rain showers overspreading the region starting in the morning. A
few thunderstorms are likely by the afternoon, but coverage is
expected to be too limited to include in the TAFs.

Ceilings will lower throughout the day with MVFR predominantly
expected by the afternoon. IFR conditions appear increasingly
likely around Branson.

Surface winds will increase out of the east on Friday with low
level wind shear conditions developing in the evening.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann



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