Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...Fair Weather This Weekend...Unsettled and Stormy Weather
Pattern Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Fog has developed across portions of southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas this morning. There have been a few locations
that the fog is locally dense. A fog advisory for the far
southwest corner of the area will be issued this morning as
guidance and area web cams show widespread dense fog developing.
All fog will burn off by mid morning with a fairly nice day on the
way. Highs will warm up to the middle 70s. Will have to watch
later this evening and overnight if any storms try to develop
across central Kansas. If they do develop, they will move
southeastward and may clip our southeast Kansas counties and far
western Missouri. The rain chanced will be very slight but worth a

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Sunday will be another warm and nice day with most locations
approaching 80 degrees. There will be a small area of upper level
ridging over the region on Sunday. Our attention begins to shift
to the unsettled and potentially stormy weather pattern that
sets up for most of next week. A large upper level trough
develops across the western half of the U.S. with pieces of energy
and upper level impulses moving across a southwest flow into the
central U.S. The first one will affect the western half of the
area by Monday afternoon and night.

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be located to our
northwest across central Kansas and a dry line south of there into
Oklahoma during most of next week. It will be hard to exactly track
and time out these disturbances this far in advance, but will
mention the off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms
Monday through the end of next week. Right now it appears the
better potential for widespread showers and storms may come on
Thursday and Friday as the system is closer to the area and better
dynamics over the region. SPC already has the area outlooked in a
Day 6 and may possibly be expanded to a Day 7. All modes of severe
weather may be possible middle to end of next week but given the
steep lapse rates forecasted by the models...very large hail may
be a concern. Overall forecast rainfall totals next week may range
from 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts from training of
storms. We may have to monitor hydro trends by the end of next
week for any possible flooding concerns.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Northwest to southeast band of low-mid level clouds around 5000
feet have been stubborn to clear this evening, but have finally
done so across the southwest portion of the CWA...including at the
JLN and BBG terminals. SGF was on the far western edge of this
cloud base, but it appears by the 11-3.9m satellite imagery that
some edging away at the clouds from the southwest is taking place.
So, with a calm or very light wind, we are still expecting fog to
form overnight at the terminals. We have the terminal at BBG going
down to a half mile, SGF to a mile and JLN down to 2 miles
overnight. Fog should burn off by 14-15z in the morning with VFR
conditions expected for the remainder of the forecast period.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.