Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KSGF 241122 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

...Update to Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Another day of near record to record heat is on tap for the region
today.  With little change in the overall pattern, expect to see
similar temperatures as Saturday, generally upper 90s and low
100s.  Afternoon mixing will again result in a drop in dewpoints,
though am not expecting readings to drop as much as they did
yesterday.  With temperatures around 100 and dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s, heat indices will again reach the 100-107 degree range.

Nearly identical temperatures and heat indices will occur on Monday
area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Temperatures will remain quite warm on Tuesday, though not quite has
hot as yesterday through Monday.  However, it appears that dewpoints
will be a few degrees higher, resulting in another day of 100+
degree heat indices.  As a result, have extended the Advisory
through early Tuesday evening.  With the ridge weakening just a tad
on Tuesday and dewpoints increasing, a few afternoon thunderstorms
can be expected across the southeastern Ozarks.

Medium and extended range model guidance is, yet again tonight,
having a difficult time arriving at a consensus regarding the timing
of a mid to late week frontal passage.  The latest 00Z GFS and
yesterday`s 12Z ECMWF were in general agreement in a Wednesday
night/Thursday FROPA, but the latest 00Z ECMWF is now slowing down
the western trough and associated front considerably, delaying
passage into the weekend. Given this continued disagreement,
confidence remains very low in the forecast beyond day 4.  For now,
will trend toward a slower solution, with lower PoPs and somewhat
warmer temperatures. Additional changes may be needed if the slower
trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Persistence forecast is the rule. Summertime high pressure remains
locked in place. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24
hours and beyond.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The following is a list of record high temperatures and the last
year of occurrence through early next week:

August 24th...

SGF...100/1938
JLN...102/1947
VIH....97/1978
UNO...100/1983

August 25th...

SGF...100/1983
JLN...101/2003
VIH...101/1973
UNO...100/1983

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan
CLIMATE...Boxell




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.