Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 171054
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
An upper level low is currently located across northern Minnesota
early this morning. The low will continue to track east today and
the trough axis will push east through the region today. An
associated cold front is currently just to the northwest of the
forecast area early the morning and will continue to push through
the area this morning and will be through the entire area by round
midday. An Arctic air mass will slam into the area behind the
front on brisk northwesterly winds, which will gusts to around 20
to 25 mph at times later this morning into this afternoon hours.
Highs will only top out in the lower to middle 20s this afternoon.
Wind chills in the single digits to around zero can be expected
this morning, with values remaining in the single digits to the lower
teens through the entire day as the colder air mass and brisk
winds spread overhead.
As the upper level trough pushes into and through the area clouds
will increase across the area and scattered flurries will be
possible late this morning into the afternoon hours, especially
across central Missouri. The flurries will end by this evening as
the trough axis moves off to the east.
A large area of surface high pressure will push south across the
Plains today with the center of the high remaining just to the
southwest and south of the area tonight into Tuesday. This will
allow skies to clear and temperatures to drop quickly this evening
with lows bottoming out in the upper single digits to the lower
teens tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds will weaken this evening
and tonight, but with the center of the area of high pressure not
moving directly overhead, a light northwesterly to westerly breeze
will continue overnight into Tuesday morning. As a result wind
chill values around zero to five below can be expected overnight
night tonight into Tuesday morning.
The area of high pressure will start to spread off to the east
during the day on Tuesday with well below normal highs once again
expected as highs only top out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s
This cold airmass will likely break or come close to record cool
highs today and record lows values tonight. Please see the Climate
section below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
A slight warm up will occur during the middle and end of the
workweek as the upper level pattern begins to flatten some.
Temperatures will still remain below normal for the middle of
November, but highs in the 40s will return Wednesday into Friday.
Even warmer conditions are expected during the weekend with highs in
the 50s expected as upper level ridging build over the central U.S.
An upper level disturbance is excepted to move across the
southern Plains and then approach the region during the upcoming
weekend, bringing the next chances for rain and perhaps some
thunderstorms to the area.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 451 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
Shortwave energy will continue to swing through the area today in
the upper atmosphere, driving another Arctic boundary through at
the surface. Gusty northwest winds are expected today with some
low level clouds moving in from the north-northwest and possibly
flurries mainly across central MO. At this time keeping things VFR
at the TAF sites with the wind being the main aviation hazard.
Winds should then subside towards sunset.
Updated at 350 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014
Another reinforcing shot of Arctic air will arrive to begin the
work week with potential record cold maximum temperatures for
November 17th and record cold minimums for November 18th. Here
are the records for Today and Tuesday.
November 17th November 18th
Record Cold Maximums Record Cold Minimums
West Plains...27/1959 West Plains...12/1959