Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231731

1131 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

An upper level trough is currently located across western Texas
early this morning and will track east into the Gulf coast states
by tonight. Precipitation with this system will remain well south
of the area, with the only affects from this system being an
increase in mid level clouds across south central Missouri. Mostly
sunny skies will occur elsewhere.

Highs will generally warm into the middle to upper 40s this
afternoon with lows falling into the middle to upper 20s tonight
under a mostly clear sky.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Warmer conditions will occur this weekend as highs warm into the
50 both afternoons.

An upper level disturbance will dive to the southeast at of the
northern Plains Saturday night and into the Ohio Valley by Sunday
night. A dry air mass will be in place across the region ahead of
this system and think precipitation chances will be overall
limited over the forecast area. Depending on the exact track of this
system a few sprinkles could clip portions of central Missouri on
Sunday, but at this time think most of the area will be dry as the
better precipitation chances remain north and east of the area.

Slightly cooler conditions will occur on Monday, especially across
central Missouri closer to the departing upper level trough. Then
a warming trend will occur Tuesday into the end of the week as an
upper level ridge builds over the region. Highs on Wednesday may
warm close to the 60 degree mark across southeastern Kansas and
and far western Missouri.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A few afternoon cumulus clouds are expected across southern
Missouri, but coverage will be too limited for MVFR potential. A
period of high clouds is then expected overnight with VFR
conditions prevailing. A weak frontal boundary will then pass
through the region Saturday morning shifting winds around to the
west-northwest. Some weather models are indicating a brief
increase in low level moisture behind this front. If this
moisture does materialize, there will be the potential for a band
of IFR ceilings Saturday morning. We have not included IFR at this
time given limited confidence, but will continue to monitor this
potential for future TAFs.




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