Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 112028
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
228 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

It has been another unseasonably warm and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures have risen into the upper 60s to low
70s with the aid of gusty southwest winds. Wind advisory continues
until 6 pm for much of the western CWA and we have certainly
reached criteria with wind gusts over 45 mph at times.

All eyes are on the upcoming winter storm and the ice potential
from late in the week into early this weekend. Will also need to
keep an eye on the rainfall amount and potential of flooding this
weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

For tonight and Thursday...The stage for the upcoming winter
weather will be be getting set up. A strong cold front will begin
to push into the area tonight, moving to around the I-44 corridor
by 12z Thu and pretty much through the whole CWA by 18z. The 32
degree F line should make it through our Central MO counties by
00z Fri. The frontal boundary will likely aid in producing some
shower activity Thursday morning and afternoon, mainly across
south central MO as the front pushes through. The air will be warm
enough for rainfall. There may be enough instability for some
isolated thunderstorms to develop within the larger area of
showers.

Aloft, a deep trough will be in the developing stages in the
western U.S. with a broad southwesterly flow aloft to the east of
the trough into the central U.S. This setup continues to be a
classic ice storm setup for a good portion of the central U.S for
late this week into this weekend, of which we are expecting to be
affected for a portion of this.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

With the upper level pattern, the surface Arctic frontal boundary
will likely stall out to our south across Arkansas, but very warm
temperatures will exist a few thousand feet above the surface with
+6.0 to + 10.0 deg C at around 850 mb. Overrunning moisture and
resultant precipitation is expected to start Thursday night.
Models are still showing differences with how far south the below
freezing surface temperatures get, with the GFS still wanting to
keep that along and north of the Plateau. We are still going with
the colder forecast solution offered by the NAM and ECMWF which
will bring freezing rain potential Thursday night and Friday to as
far south as around the U.S. 60 corridor. The quickness with which
the warmer air above freezing returns will be the main factor in
how much of an impact and ice total ice accumulation there is. The
highest ice amounts will occur across central MO where up to three
quarters of an inch will be possible. A quarter to half inch is
expected along the I-44 corridor and a tenth to quarter inch
possible along the U.S. 60 corridor. We have a high confidence of
seeing some ice develop across the area, especially over central
MO. Still have lesser amounts of confidence with amounts and this
will conicide with how long the below freezing temperatures can
linger over a certain location. Again, central MO will have
temperatures below freezing for the longest period and we are
expecting the most ice there.

Heading into the weekend, the warmer air will begin to spread
northward, with most of the freezing rain across central MO and
the remainder of the CWA warm enough for rain. The upper level
system will begin to lift out of the southwestern U.S. and into
the southern high plains on Sunday. As this system begins to lift
into the area, some instability will begin to develop over
southern portions of the area and may see some embedded
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night and possibly Tuesday
depending on how quickly this system can move through. With the
several waves of precipitation, including convective potential
late with this system, we may be looking at some flooding as well
for late in the weekend into early next week. Will maintain a
limited flooding risk at this time.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR/MVFR conditions to start the cycle. Winds will increase once
again through the afternoon and then subside around sunset. A cold
frontal boundary will push through late tonight or Thursday
morning, shifting winds to a northerly direction.

A very slight chance of rain may be possible as the frontal
boundary moves through the area. Covered this slight chance with
VCs for now. As the front moves through, ceilings may drop into
the IFR range through Thursday morning, especially for SGF and
BBG.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
     afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-098.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066>068-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>103.

KS...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
     afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye



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