Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1123 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Low clouds and perhaps some light fog and drizzle will linger
across most of the Ozarks region tonight in the wake of a cold
front that moved across the region Sunday. Surface high pressure
will build into the area tonight and shift off to the east on
Monday allowing for a return southeasterly flow. The extent of
clearing is questionable Monday with at partial clearing more
probable across central into eastern Missouri. Temperatures will
be seasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Low level warm air and moisture advection will develop Monday
night into Tuesday with aforementioned front return north as a
warm front. This will result in extensive cloud cover and a
chance for showers and/or drizzle beginning Monday night and
continuing into Tuesday.

The coverage and intensity of showers will increase Tuesday night
as the cold front drops southeastward into the region. Just
enough instability may be develop to support some isolated storms.
This front will drop through the region Wednesday bringing a
cooler airmass back into the Ozarks.

This front will return as a warm front Thursday bringing a renewed
chance for showers. A more substantial storm system will take
shape over the central U.S. by Friday. A sharp cold front will
swing across the region Friday bringing a good chance for showers
and thunderstorms. After brief warm-up late in the week cooler but
seasonable temperatures will return for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

MVFR stratus deck over the area has shown just a little erosion
over the past several hours over south central Missouri and down
into Arkansas. Short term model guidance indicates best chance
for any type of clearing of the low clouds will be over the
eastern Ozarks but not until later today, with the TAF sites
remaining overcast. Will likely see ceilings lower to IFR after
09Z and lasting through the mid morning hours, with MVFR
conditions then lasting after mid morning through the end of the
TAF period. Although, with some clearing possible at KBBG this
afternoon, will likely see some VFR conditions there.

As for visibilities, will likely see 3-5SM for the most part late
tonight and early Monday. Cannot rule out some lower visibilities if
any breaks in the clouds develop, which would likely be over the
eastern Ozarks.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.