Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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306
FXUS63 KSGF 162025
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

Scattered showers and storms continue to bubble up in a warm and
modestly unstable airmass across the Midwest this afternoon. This
activity has been aided, in part, by a weak shortwave aloft which
continues to lift to the northeast. From a regional radar
perspective, on can make out a "back edge" to this activity, just
to the west of the Highway 65 corridor. To the west of this line,
cumulus is bit more muted beneath an advancing swath of mid level
drying aloft. The rest of the afternoon will feature more of the
same, with scattered activity generally focusing further east
with time and highs a few degrees either side of 80.

The forecast for tonight remains a challenge. We will be watching
convection developing across Kansas and Oklahoma and how it
evolves with time. No doubt the better forcing and support for
convection will be to our west through, though this will change
with time as an upper level low shifts into the central/northern
Plains.

Early this evening, most areas should remain quiet, aside from a
few lingering showers over the eastern Ozarks. By the mid to late
evening hours, convection to our west will approach western
portions of the outlook area. Deep layer shear and most unstable
CAPE support storm organization, which will likely be
transitioning from discrete cellular to linear structures by the
time it reaches our area. As a result, the primary severe weather
risks will be damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
There is a limited tornado risk with any line segments that can
bow to the northeast and produce mesovorts. Instability lessens
from the highway 65 corridor on east, as a result the better
chances for severe weather for our outlook area will be generally
along and west of the I-49 corridor. Will also need to keep an eye
on locally heavy rainfall, particularly across far southwestern
Missouri, where a flash flood watch remains in effect tonight.

The forecast for Sunday and Sunday night remains uncertain. The
better large scale forcing will shift to our north and a weakening
cold front will essentially wash out over the area by Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rain/embedded thunder will affect eastern
portions of the area during the morning, with most areas getting
a break during the afternoon. With highs warming well into the
80s, mixed layer CAPE values should approach 2000 J/kg. However
the weak large scale forcing brings into question just how much
in the way of organized thunderstorms we can muster. At this
time, we do expect scattered afternoon/evening storms which will
present a localized damaging wind/hail risk.

The weather for Monday will remain unsettled. A cold front will
move in from the north during the day and spark yet another round
of scattered storms. Will need to watch how much instability we
can muster ahead of the front. It is plausible to see another
localized risk of wind/hail.

The front will exit to the south Monday evening and set up a
period of quiet weather Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler
Tuesday with highs a few degrees either side of 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

Modified Continental Polar air mass will descend into Missouri on
Wednesday resulting in a brief cooling trend. Upper flow though
will remain dominated by persistent southwest US trough which will
kick out another shortwave into the Central Plains even as surface
high is descending southward. Inflow on east to northeast surface
winds will result in little to no instability so while there is a
chance for precipitation...thunderstorms will be isolated at best.

Still another wave will rotate through the upper trough over the
upcoming weekend resulting in another precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MVFR ceilings to be dominant this TAF period with the potential
for IFR as boundary layer saturates by strong low level moist
flow overnight. Random shower activity currently being witnessed
may become mixed with TSRA as CAPES marginally improve during the
afternoon.

Potential for solid band of strong to severe convection to impact
KJLN by mid evening. KSGF and KBBG areas to likely see less
intense but nonetheless widespread convection arrive toward
midnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning FOR MOZ093-094-101>103.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels






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