Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Surface high pressure is currently over the region this afternoon,
resulting in mostly sunny skies and light winds. The area of high
pressure will slide off to the east tonight and Friday allowing
the pressure gradient to tighten across the area. Gusty
southeasterly winds will develop in the Springfield area this
evening/tonight as they funnel into the area. Winds will then
pick up and be gusty across the entire area later tonight through
the day on Friday. Southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph can be
expected at times on Friday, especially across southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri.

A warmer air mass will advect north into the area tonight and
Friday ahead of the approaching system. Drizzle will be possible
at times tonight and Friday as lift occurs with the warm air mass
moving north into the area. Highs are Friday will top out in the
middle 60s to around 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A cold front will move through the area Friday night into
Saturday morning. Showers and a few storms will be possible along
and behind the front. The better convection chances will occur
across central and south central Missouri. Some portions of
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri may not see much in
the way of rainfall with the front. Most of the activity is
expected to develop behind the front and no severe weather is
expected at this time.

Windy conditions will occur behind the front as northwesterly
winds gust over 40 mph at times on Saturday. Highs on Saturday
will likely occur during the morning hours as temperatures cool
slightly during the day as a cooler air mass slides into the
area behind the front. A drier air mass will also move into the
area and will result in elevated fire weather conditions Saturday
afternoon as the dry and windy conditions combine.

Highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s will occur on Sunday then
temperatures in the lower to middle 50s will occur early next


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions expected early on, but will see a strong low level
jet set up after midnight and should start advecting some low
level moisture into the area. We are anticipating some MVFR
ceilings to develop overnight and continue through Friday. Surface
winds and low level wind shear will also be significant aviation
hazards through the period. Wind shear of around 50 kts will be
possible and surface gusts of up to 35 kts will be possible.




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