Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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953
FXUS63 KSGF 221932
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Hot afternoon were occuring this afternoon with temps around 100
in several locations. Heat indicies will remain excessive into the
evening hours with clear skies. A front will edge into Central
Missouri late tonight and may kick off some scattered showers and
storms mainly along and north of US Highway 54. Mid level ridge of
high pressure is rather strong across the area and there is
question as to how far south precip can make it. An isolated
strong storm is not out of the questions north of 54 hwy due to
instability.

Lingering clouds/precip could make an impact on high temps and
heat indicies tomorrow however current thinking is that activity
will remaining scattered enough that a strong July sun will be
able to keep us up in the 90s for highs. A weakening front will be
in the area and will need to watch for moisture pooling.
Additional showers and storms look possible in the afternoon and
evening hours Sunday. Current heat advisories/warnings out for
tomorrow look to be in good shape.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Scattered rain/storm chances are possible Monday and Tuesday as a
front will remain in the area. Widespread precip doesn`t look
likely at this point. Will need to watch high temps as they creep
back up into the 90s Monday onward. While heat indicies will be
the lowest Monday, they will still be near 100 and then only up
from there. Therefore heat advisories may need to be extended into
Monday and beyond.

One change in the forecast from previous model runs is to slow the
eastward movement of the mid level ridge back into the area mid to
late week. It is possible that we remain on the east side which
would mean a northwest flow and better rain/MCS chances.
COnfidence is still low in the extended given model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR flight conditions expected at the
terminals through the period. The ridge of high pressure over the
region will flatten late today and tonight and will allow
convection to develop from eastern Kansas into central Missouri.
However, these storms are expected to remain north of the TAF
sites. This will have to be monitored in later forecasts for the
possibility of further southward development. Will leave any
mention of precipitation out of the TAFs at this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ082-090>092-094>098-
     101>106.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-083-088-089-093.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Raberding



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