Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1129 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Pleasant day across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast
Kansas. Fire weather remains in elevated category as humidity
levels have dipped into the 20s and winds were in the 10 to 20 mph
range. Upper level low was located along the Red River with some
showers showing up on regional radar loop across eastern
Oklahoma. Main focus will be with temperatures over the majority
of the weekend with precipitation chances returning on Sunday


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

For tonight, upper low will track mainly east across northern
Arkansas with some upper energy associated with the low moving
across the forecast area. Couldn`t rule out a few sprinkles or a
light shower mainly in the eastern CWA east of the low, but with
the dry atmosphere initially, it will take a lot to measure a
hundredth. Clouds will be on the increase from the south though
and will help to keep temperatures on the mild side overnight.

The cloud cover will linger across the area for much of the day
Saturday, but could see some clearing from northwest to southeast
as the low tracks east of the area in the afternoon and upper
ridging builds in. Cloud cover may hold temperatures back slightly
from what we had today, but it will still be well above normal for
highs on Saturday. Due to the increased moisture, fire weather is
not expected to be a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Upper ridging will build into the area Saturday night into Sunday
and we could see highs reach record levels on Sunday with decent
south to southwest low level flow. The ridge axis will begin
sliding east of the area on Sunday night with a trough nudging in
from the west and southwest. Low level moisture should increase
ahead of this feature enough to where precipitation chances will
increase into likely category by overnight Sunday, continuing into
Monday night across the eastern Ozarks. The precipitation should
clear most of the area by Tuesday morning. Some scattered
thunderstorms will probably be mixed in with the predominant
shower activity, but severe storms are not expected with this
system across our CWA.

The next system will move into the area later in the week, but
Thursday into Friday, but we are still looking at well above
normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s until Friday when the next
front moves through. The climate section below shows record
temperatures through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through this forecast
period. Upper level low over southeast Oklahoma will make its way
across Arkansas through this forecast period. As it does...expect
mid level ceilings to move in overnight across all three
terminals. It is possible to see some isolated MVFR ceilings
during the late morning into early afternoon on Saturday.

Clouds will begin to scatter out by late afternoon as the upper
low moves into the Ohio Valley.


Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

We may approach record high temperatures the next few days and
especially Sunday.

Record Highs/YearFeb 17th Feb 18thFeb 19th
Springfield 73/191174/194871/2004
West Plains 77/1986 77/198673/1981




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.