Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282308
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
508 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Initial shortwave rotating around the deep upper low over the
northern Plains was pushing through the area, with the main
precipitation shield now over the eastern Ozarks. Skies were
clearing across southeast Kansas and far western Missouri just
behind a surface boundary. This clearing will continue to progress
eastward through the late afternoon and early evening hours. 17Z
RAP model does show some instability over the eastern Ozarks
early this evening, so have kept lower end probabilities going.
Cannot rule out some small hail with any of the storms that may
develop.

Otherwise, upper low will continue to meander over the northern
Plains through Tuesday pushing a weak frontal boundary through
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks Tuesday afternoon. Front
will pass through dry, with just a wind shift to the west southwest.
temperatures will again be mild with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Surface low over the upper Midwest will gradually shift into the
Great Lakes region through Thursday. The latest NAM and GFS show
some decent moisture wrapping around the back side of this system
and clipping central Missouri Wednesday night. However all precip
remains north of our area, so will keep this portion of the
forecast dry.

Next storm system to impact the CONUS will drop southward from the
northwest Pacific into the Desert Southwest by Friday/Saturday.
The system will tap into a deep moisture fetch over the eastern
Pacific and spread it northeastward into the central US by
Saturday night and Sunday. While it looks like the main
precipitation type will be rain with this system, temperatures
will be close enough to the freezing mark to possibly support
rain/snow mix, mainly late Saturday night and early Sunday. Will
be following the GFS solution for movement of this system as the
ECMWF continues to shift the system too quickly to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 504 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Drier air was pushing into the area behind a frontal boundary and
was clearing the sky from west to east. All of the TAF sites had
cleared out or will clear out by 00z. A secondary front will push
into the area on Tuesday, but with drier air in place, not
expecting much other than some mid level clouds ahead of the
front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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