Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 272024
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KSGF free of echoes though there remains a slight chance for
isolated TSRA over the eastern Ozarks through late afternoon as a
short wave descends southward into the upper trough over the Ohio
Valley.

Next and more potent shortwave to descend down back side of ridge
tomorrow afternoon. While modeled sounding lapse rates not showing
that much of an improvement...believe low level warm advection to
exceed guidance leading to better instability and at least
scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into early Monday over the
eastern Ozarks. Some question over the degree of severe threat with
0-6 KM bulk shear barely reaching 40 knots.

Warm air advection to make high temperatures a challenge and have
trended above the upper end of guidance tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There will be break in the parade of waves descending the western
trough leading to quiet though seasonably warm weather Monday into
Tuesday. A diffuse wave will generate scattered convection Tuesday
night into Wednesday...with the associated trailing frontal boundary
generating additional storm chances during the later half of the
work week as it hang ups across the region due to the western upper
ridge breaking down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Multiple layer ceilings present at all three SGF area airports to
become VFR this afternoon before thinning by mid afternoon as
cyclonic flow diminishes. May be a touch of BR late tonight especially
over the KBBG area where boundary layer moisture will tend to mix
out more slowly.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels





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